Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected on our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 114-91, +$1,091
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Kyler Murray rush yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 43.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 19, 1:22pm ET
Notes: Kyler started to run a bit more in Week 6 with the injuries to the running back room. We’re betting on that to continue Thursday night against a formidable Saints pass rush.
2. Brian Robinson rush yards
Line: 56.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 19, 6:07pm ET
Notes: This could be a slow, ugly game and Ron Rivera has discussed getting Antonio Gibson more involved in the offense.
3. Taylor Heinicke pass attempts
Line: 32.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 31.1 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: October 19, 6:55pm ET
Notes: Heinicke has the same pace concerns as noted for Robinson, and has not typically been a high-volume passer.
4. Taylor Heinicke rush yards
Line: 10.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 20, 8:28am ET
Notes: Prior to a knee injury last season, Heinicke was 10-5 for his career against this line including playoffs. More of a runner than the market is currently crediting.
5. Marquez Callaway receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.9 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+118)
Date: October 20, 8:43am ET
Notes: Callaway has played over 50 snaps in each of the last three games, going 2-1 against this number over that time frame.
6. AJ Dillon rush yards
Line: 39.5 yards
Mean Projection: 52.0 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 20, 4:21pm ET
Notes: Dillon is still in a near-even split with Aaron Jones and should get double-digit carries against Washington.
7. Tyreek Hill receiving yards
Line: 74.5 yards
Mean Projection: 93.0 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 20, 5:57pm ET
Notes: Hill has hit this number in four of six games already this season due to a massive 31.6% target share.
8. Jonathan Taylor rushing plus receiving yards
Line: 80.5 yards
Mean Projection: 100.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 21, 8:35am ET
Notes: Taylor is coming back from injury, but practiced in full on Friday indicating he is healthy and ready to go. He has hit this number in two of four games while “disappointing” to start the year.
9. Dameon Pierce rush yards
Line: 61.5 yards
Mean Projection: 81.4 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-103)
Date: October 21, 8:58am ET
Notes: Pierce has beaten this line in four straight games, and the rookie should continue to dominate touches off a bye.
10. Khalil Herbert rush yards
Line: 26.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.7 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 21, 1:08pm ET
Notes: Herbert has been far more efficient than David Montgomery on the ground this year, and Bears coach Matt Eberflus noted the team will start to ride the “hot hand” at RB.
11. James Robinson receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: October 21, 2:48pm ET
Notes: Travis Etienne is the passing-down back in Jacksonville and Robinson is running a route on just ~30% of pass plays.
12. Tua Tagovailoa pass yards
Line: 237.5 yards
Mean Projection: 272.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 21, 3:05pm ET
Notes: Tagovailoa is set to return from injury and this offense should return to the high-octane passing attack it was early on.
13. Patrick Mahomes completions
Line: 26.5 completions
Mean Projection: 24.8 completions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 21, 3:28pm ET
Notes: Mahomes has reached this in just 2-of-6 games and the 49ers could try to slow the game down and establish the run.
14. Daniel Jones rush yards
Line: 36.5 yards
Mean Projection: 34.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: October 21, 4:37pm ET
Notes: Mostly a projections bet where we are highest in market on Daniel Jones’ rushing output and still show a slight under.
15. Ezekiel Elliott receiving yards
Line: 4.5 yards
Mean Projection: 14.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: October 21, 4:59pm ET
Notes: Zeke has been a zero in the pass-game this year, but this is an amazing spot for him to get going against the Lions woeful defense.
16. Tyler Allgeier rush yards
Line: 50.5 yards
Mean Projection: 48.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: October 21, 10:26pm ET
Notes: Allgeier is losing a lot of carries to Caleb Huntley, and the Falcons are a big road dog at Cincy. We are expecting more Mariota throws than we’ve seen recently.
17. Diontae Johnson receiving yards
Line: 61.5 yards
Mean Projection: 55.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 21, 10:31pm ET
Notes: Johnson is losing target share to both Chase Claypool and George Pickens.
18. Noah Gray receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+100)
Date: October 22, 4:24pm ET
Notes: This prop is 4-2 so far this season and we get it at a great price.
19. Chuba Hubbard rushing plus receiving yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 39.7
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 22, 4:31pm ET
Notes: The backfield split in Carolina is pretty ambiguous right now, and the offense overall is unlikely to be productive.
20. Najee Harris carries
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 14.5 carries
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+100)
Date: October 22, 6:02pm ET
Notes: Harris is 4-2 against this line so far this year as he continues to be their workhorse.
21. J.D. McKissic rush yards
Line: 11.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.9 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: October 22, 6:31pm ET
Notes: McKissic has received two total carries since Brian Robinson returned to the lineup.
22. Dante Pettis receptions
Line: 1.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 1.5 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+145)
Date: October 22, 11:59pm ET
Notes: Pettis is still sharing time with the other non-Darnell Mooney Bears WRs.
23. Gus Edwards rush yards
Line: 40.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.8 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 23, 12:42pm ET
Notes: The Ravens figure to be careful with Edwards in his first game back.
24. Cody Hollister receiving yards
Line: 24.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.7 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: October 23, 12:51pm ET
Notes: Hollister is the WR3 for Tennessee today, but they will likely lean on the ground game and use a lot of 2-TE sets.
25. Brett Rypien pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 31.8 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: October 23, 3:04pm ET
Notes: Denver is a small dog and this number is fairly low for a starting QB.
