Last Updated: September 3rd at 5:00pm ET
Editor’s Note: For Evan Silva’s breakdown on every player in this game, click here. The audio for Silva’s column is embedded below.
One-game GPPs aka Showdown slates are as much about lineup construction as picking the right players. The best way to wrap our heads around it is to work backwards. In other words, if Aaron Rodgers is our captain, we’ll likely need at least three TDs from him to win a tournament. Is it likely just one of his pass-catchers scores all three? No. We will need to roster two of Rodgers’ pass-catchers and hope they combine for the three touchdowns.
Similarly, we need to think about how touchdowns will be scored by running backs. If early-down RB Sony Michel is our captain, we’ll need him to score at least two touchdowns and they’ll almost certainly come on the ground. In that scenario, it’s unlikely Tom Brady would throw for three. It’s also unlikely James White would have access to a ceiling game.
We should also note that D/ST, K and TE typically don’t have the ceilings to be worthy of the captain spot. As you can see by the below chart.
Of course, the above is a generalization. In any single NFL game, flukey things can and will happen. Every year there are low-scoring, boring games. When a game finishes 10-3, you can throw out correlations and working backwards, you simply need the players who scored the most fantasy points. Whether and how much to consider these outcomes in your approach is up to you and largely depends on 1) What you think will happen in the game and 2) What you think your opponents will do.
As we turn our attention to Thursday night’s Packers at Bears game, it’s important to understand historical league and team outcomes.
Please note: The data in the below charts is from 2018. Some players are now on new teams, and teams often have new philosophies heading into new seasons, etc. Still, this is a good starting point to think about different outcomes for the league and each team.
The data below represents the percentage of times each position is responsible for producing the highest DraftKings score in every NFL game from 2018. While the highest scoring player is not mandatory to have in your captain spot on DraftKings to win a GPP, it often happens that way, so it’s worth noting these numbers.
HIGHEST SCORING PLAYER IN A GAME BY POSITION
1. RB 34%
2. QB 27%
3. WR 27%
4. TE 6%
5. D/ST 5%
6. K 1%
Lastly, the charts below show each team’s highest fantasy scorer by position. Again, these are 2018 results and therefore should be taken in the context of a team’s changes. For more on those changes, read Silva’s Matchups.
With those thoughts in mind, here are some examples of stacks we think make sense for GPPs. They are in no particular order.
* Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller – Project Trubisky for three TDs, all of them going to Robinson or Miller. Note Miller is over his ankle injury and will face off with 36-year-old Tramon Williams in the slot.
* Captain Allen Robinson, Mitchell Trubisky, David Montgomery – Project Trubisky for two TDs, both to Robinson. Then add in a rushing TD and a 100-yard game for Montgomery as the Bears coast to a win.
* Captain Adam Shaheen, Mitchell Trubisky, Davante Adams – Project Trubisky for two TDs to Adam Shaheen, whose outlook is enhanced by Trey Burton’s (groin) continued struggles. Shaheen at captain is thin and two TDs from a TE is an outlier outcome (as noted in the above charts), but this allows maximum salary flexibility.
* Captain Geronimo Allison (or Marquez Valdes-Scantling), Aaron Rodgers – Project Rodgers for just two TDs in a low scoring game, with both going to Allison (or MVS). Note Geronimo has a plus slot matchup against Buster Skrine.
* Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Graham – Project Adams for two TDs and Rodgers throwing a third to Graham. Jace Sternberger was placed on IR Tuesday.
PROJECTED OWNERSHIP
Again, roster construction and correlation are the most important factors for GPP success in the Showdown format. But understanding who will be popular helps. A rough guide to who we think will be the most owned:
Higher projected ownership, in order of descending salary:
* Davante Adams
* Aaron Rodgers
* Mitchell Trubisky
* Allen Robinson
* David Montgomery
Lower projected ownership, in order of descending salary:
* Tarik Cohen (playing time risk)
* Anthony Miller
* Mike Davis (playing time risk)
* Jake Kumerow (extreme playing time risk)
* Adam Shaheen (if Trey Burton is out)
