The Beatdown: UFC 302

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Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier

Fight Odds: Makhachev -758, Poirier +517

Odds to Finish: -550

DraftKings Salaries: Makhachev $9.5K, Poirier $6.7K

Weight Class: 155

With a potential retirement looming, Dustin Poirier is going to give his title aspirations one last go, as he’ll get the opportunity to face Islam Makhachev for the lightweight strap this weekend.

Poirier most recently defeated Benoit Saint Denis, knocking him out in the second round in exhilarating fashion, which prompted the UFC to throw him into the title mix.

Of course, Poirier has been a staple of this division’s elite for many years, and his longstanding success holds enough merit to give him another title opportunity. But it should be noted that his recent form has only been mediocre.

His last truly big win came against Conor McGregor in 2021, which led to a title shot against Charles Oliveira, and Poirier did not pass that test. He then found a submission late against Michael Chandler, but largely took a beating for the first couple of rounds. Then he was knocked out by Justin Gaethje.

Against Saint Denis, Poirier again had to come from behind. Saint Denis was pressing him early, and found a lot of success on the mat. He had Poirier mounted, and was fishing for a RNC from his back at points as well.

Eventually, Saint Denis did get tired, and flung himself into wild boxing exchanges which he was never going to win, and Poirier promptly knocked him out.

It will be a much more difficult test against Islam Makhachev, who not only has far superior grappling than anyone Poirier has fought recently, but also absorbs strikes at an absurdly low rate.

It’s been one of the hallmark’s of Makhachev’s success that we’ve noted time and again. At distance, Makhachev is only absorbing 2.2 sig. strikes per minute, and in total, he’s absorbing only 1.27 per minute.

It’s a far cry from someone like Saint Denis, who absorbs 8.7 significant strikes per minute at distance and is known for having non-existent defense. While BSD had advantages on the mat, it was always going to be Poirier who would come out ahead in boxing exchanges.

Poirier is certainly the more dangerous boxer of the two in this current matchup as well, but Makhachev will limit exchanges to where they are favorable for him, and he won’t engage in spots where he is in danger.

It simply makes the path to victory more difficult. Not only will Poirier have to survive the ground attack, but when the fight takes place standing, he’s fighting an opponent who won’t put himself into compromising positions.

With that said, we have seen Makhachev slip up. His one career loss was a first-round KO in 2015 against Adriano Martins. Volkanovski also dropped him in 2023.

Should Poirier actually defend takedowns and force extended boxing exchanges, he will have a chance to win. It may not come easily, but Poirier is the superior and more comfortable boxer, and it is possible he damages Makhachev enough to stop the fight.

Of course, this is all with the premise that he can stop the grappling attack from Makhachev, which feels pretty unlikely to me.

Poirier is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but he’s not a great wrestler, and he’s obsessed with the stupid guillotine choke that he uses to attack instead of defending takedowns, which consistently fails and puts him in bad positions.