The Rundown: Week 16

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 16. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Colts at Falcons, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Colts’ OL (8th) > the Falcons’ DL (31x) as the week’s biggest mismatch.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Alec Pierce ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD) in the Honorable Mentions section.
• Buy Leone: Bijan Robinson ($6,300 DK, 2.5 PPG underperformance – fourth-highest among all RBs) appears in this week’s model.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Gardner Minshew warrants locked-in two-QB and Superflex-starter treatment.”
• “His legs fresh after sitting the last three weeks, Jonathan Taylor is an eruption candidate here. He has five TDs over his last five appearances.”
• “Josh Downs hasn’t cleared 45 yards since Week 8 and hasn’t hit paydirt since Week 7.”
• “Indianapolis’ four-man tight end weave isn’t going away.”
• “It’s uncomfortable, but this is still a premium on-paper spot for Bijan Robinson. Atlanta is favored at home, and Indianapolis has conceded the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy running back points.”
• “Taylor Heinicke has targeted Kyle Pitts a team-high 11 times on the season, but they’ve hooked up for just 95 scoreless yards.”
• “Drake London has caught two passes from Heinicke this season. He’s an entirely unsafe WR4/flex dart.”

Seahawks at Titans, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Seahawks’ DL (15th) > the Titans’ OL (32nd) as the week’s fifth-biggest mismatch.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,500 DK, $5,900 FD) as a great play on both sites.
• Buy Leone: Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK, 0.9 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s model.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “I still don’t fully trust Geno Smith coming off injury as more than a fringe QB1/2 play.”
• “I do trust Kenneth Walker, who was the best offensive skill-position player in Week 15’s upset of Philadelphia. Tennessee’s run defense has fallen apart of late.”
• “Tyler Lockett still leads the Seahawks in receptions on throws from Geno (59) by a margin of 11 over DK Metcalf.”
• “Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to hover in the 70% playing-time range on a team that loves to play multiple tight ends.”
• “I have no confidence in Ryan Tannehill beyond desperate two-QB-league scenarios.”
• “This game’s home environment plus Seattle’s allowance of the NFL’s fifth-most fantasy points to running backs keep Derrick Henry’s RB1 valuation alive, albeit accompanied by low-floor risk.”
• “DeAndre Hopkins leads the Titans in targets (45), catches (27), yards (376), and first-down conversions (20) on Tannehill’s 2023 throws.”
• “After leading the team in Week 15 receiving, Treylon Burks is a super darkhorse DFS tournament sleeper versus Seattle.”
• “Chig Okonkwo is a viable low-end TE1.”

Lions at Vikings, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)