The Rundown: Week 17

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 17 Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Patriots at Bills, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Demario Douglas ($4,300 DK) as a strong DraftKings-only play.
• Buy Leone: Stefon Diggs ($8,200 DK, 3.7 PPG underperformance — highest among all WRs) appears in this week’s model.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed the Bills’ DST ($3,900 DK, $4,900 FD) as a top DST play on both DraftKings (3rd) and FanDuel (3rd).

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Albeit low on individual fantasy appeal, Bailey Zappe is keeping alive a small handful of teammates.”
• “Ezekiel Elliott has played over 80% of New England’s offensive snaps in three straight games and is averaging 21.8 touches over the last four.”
• “Demario Douglas is probably New England’s lone fantasy-playable pass catcher, he’s commanded at least eight targets in three of his last four appearances.”
• “Josh Allen has historically ripped Bill Belichick’s defenses, dropping weekly fantasy finishes of QB4, QB3, QB12, and QB3 in their last four regular-season meetings.”
• “New England has allowed the NFL’s fifth-most running back catches (83) and gave up 102 yards and a touchdown to James Cook in these clubs’ Week 7 date.”
• “An elite WR1 to begin the year, Stefon Diggs needs to be downgraded into WR2 territory.”
• “Perhaps the league’s most boom-bust WR3, Gabe Davis‘ four most recent box-score results versus New England are 1/6/0, 3/39/0, 2/15/1, and 2/41/1.”
  
• “In three games since Dawson Knox’s return from I.R., Dalton Kincaid has totaled 6/28/0 receiving.”

Falcons at Bears, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman noted that this could be a a surprisingly fast-paced environment. The Bears have played with more tempo over the last month, while Atlanta’s offense ranks seventh in both pace and average play-clock seconds remaining.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn doesn’t see a notable mismatch from this game. The Falcons’ OL ranks 11th in Brandon Thorn’s Week 17 rankings, while the Bears (OL 20th; DL 28th) are weak on both sides of the ball.
• Buy Leone: D.J. Moore ($6,600 DK, 1.6 PPG underperformance — third highest among all WRs) appears in this week’s model.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “In three 2023 starts, Taylor Heinicke’s fantasy finishes are QB13 (vs. MIN), QB20 (@ ARI), and QB24 (vs. IND).”
• “Bijan Robinson banked 19 touches on a 75% playing-time clip against Indy, collecting season highs in targets (10) and catches (7). Chicago has coughed up the league’s second-most receptions (98) and a league-high 887 receiving yards to running backs.”
• “Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in yards (144) on passes thrown by Heinicke this season, while the Bears have conceded the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy TE points.”
• “Justin Fields has been a boom-or-bust producer with matchup sensitivity. The good news is Atlanta has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most rushing yards (308) and fourth-most rushing TDs (5) to quarterbacks.”
• “The Falcons have played stout run defense all season, holding enemy backs to the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy points and 3.7 yards per carry. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson would be low-end flex options should D’Onta Foreman sit again here. If Foreman is active, this would become a red-light fantasy situation to avoid.”
• “D.J. Moore is a dicey Week 17 investment at risk of drawing A.J. Terrell’s coverage after spraining his right ankle early in last week’s first quarter.”
• “Darnell Mooney hasn’t scored since Week 1 and has cleared 55 yards in just one of 15 appearances.”

Raiders at Colts, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)