Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 14

Welcome to the Week 14 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

A wild Thanksgiving week delivered the most offensive plays and fell just a field goal shy of the most points scored in any week this season. Hopefully we had our fill, because the bye-riddled Week 14 leftovers belong in the trash.

Teams missing from this main slate include three of the top five in pace, four of the top five in total points, and six of the top 10 in combined plays. Among the fastest-paced offenses remaining on the main slate include the receiver-bereft Saints, the suddenly-slow Seahawks, and the Kirk Cousins-crippled Falcons.

We remain thankful for last week’s scoring circus, as well as the coming conclusion of this season’s byes. Before then, however, we must pick carefully at the Week 14 carcass of a main slate — so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

After watching Kirk Cousins play like something Zac Robinson scraped off his shoe, it’s understandable to want nothing to do with his offense — especially on the road against kamikaze blitzers with the third-highest pressure rate. Our pace-pushing options, however, are limited. For all of its faults — of which there are many — the Falcons’ offense is third in Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE) on the season and eighth during the past month. Their games produce the 10th-most combined snaps, albeit fewer during the past month, as Atlanta’s neutral pass rate has crashed from fourth (61%) to 24th (53%). Underdogs by more than a field goal and facing a run-dominant defense opponents pass on at the seventh-highest rate during neutral situations, Cousins will be chucking it around his former stadium at some point. Jesus take the wheel.

Vikings games have generated outsized play volume most of the season and rank ninth in combined snaps over the last four weeks. Minnesota is operating at the seventh-fastest POE during that stretch and recently had success when using tempo during their comeback win over the Cardinals. Unlike the Vikings’ defense, the Falcons have a warm breeze for a pass rush which ranks 26th in pressure rate and has allowed more EPA via dropbacks than on the ground. Minnesota has the third-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and their contests feature the seventh-highest full-game explosive play rate. There is a strong chance the Vikings spend the fourth quarter killing clock against a road-tripping Falcons team that got zero boost coming out of their Week 12 bye. The contrary scenario involves an up-pace, frantic indoor script featuring explosive fantasy producers on a thin main slate.