Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 17

Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

The NFL’s Christmas week not only gifted us a yuletide nightcap worthy of a Super Bowl rematch, but also a set of games featuring the highest no-huddle rate in a month, the second-most points of the season, and the most overtime-adjusted offensive snaps of the year.

Week 17 offers a packed 13-game main slate — including several tricky pace-based spots where one offense’s play volume should be boosted by their opponent, in matchups with questionable back-and-forth potential. We’ll hit on those in Pace Notes. We have a slightly slimmed down version this week due to holiday travel, so let’s dive right in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the FTN Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints threw at their highest situation-neutral clip of the year on Thursday night (73%) and now rank ninth on the full season. They are fifth in situation-neutral pace, fourth in average play-clock seconds, and their games yield the seventh-most combined snaps. When New Orleans last faced Tampa Bay in Week 4, the game produced above-average play volume, as both offenses operated quickly and chucked it around. If not for three Saints turnovers and three red-zone field goals, the score would likely have surpassed expectation as well. Playing with a bum shoulder, Derek Carr was even more of a check-down artist than usual against the Bucs (7.4-yard aDOT).

In Week 16, however, Carr was finally throwing downfield (9.4-yard aDOT) — with two deep touchdowns. PFF’s second-best-graded passer over the past three weeks, Baker Mayfield has a downfield score in each of the last two games for the Bucs — who are also chucking it at a top-10 rate during neutral situations. Their opponents are passing at the second-highest clip, and Tampa Bay’s defense surrenders the fifth-highest explosive play rate (12%). Tampa’s offense has the seventh-highest explosive play rate over the past month and face a Saints defense still missing Marshon Lattimore. For a 13-game Dec. 31 main slate, featuring 11 outdoor games, a pass-happy Florida environment looks mighty fine.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles