Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 2

Welcome to the Week 2 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

From 60-yard dome lasers to injury report Shanahanigans, the NFL is back with a vengeance — for good and ill. From a pace standpoint, however, it returned with a whimper. We were served the fewest offensive plays in any Week 1 since 2017, and over 100 fewer snaps than last year. The main slate was even worse.

Last season’s average play count was 126.2 per game. Only two of 12 main-slate matchups topped that mark in Week 1 — and not by much. The other 10 contests averaged 116.5 snaps. 10 fewer plays per game doesn’t seem overly consequential, but it’s far more than an extra drive.

The good news is play volume ticked up last year after Week 1, albeit slightly. The bad news is the Week 2 main slate does not feature an abundance of fast-paced contests with an expectation for tight game scripts. Even the (few) high-total games don’t project to be particularly up tempo — and the only matchup with two play-callers who want to move quickly is an abomination.

That’s a lot more bad news than good — but we are still finding out the direction many offenses will go from a pace perspective. So, let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Pace Over Expected, and Pass Rate Over Expected is based on neutral game script and is provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Hide the Women and Children | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Baker Mayfield takes a considerable step up in weight class from his Week 1 skewering of the Commanders’ secondary for this NFC Divisional playoff rematch in Detroit. He helped keep the Bucs in last year’s game via 350 passing yards and three touchdowns, with the matchup delivering outsized scoring (54 points) and play volume (131 combined plays). Tampa kicked off the 2024 season by operating at the seventh-fastest Pace Over Expectation (POE) in a contest that delivered Week 1’s third-highest point total (57). They posted the eighth-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), and against a Lions defense that was dominant stopping the run last year while already grading fifth best after one week, it’s a solid bet the ground-game-deficient Bucs will take to the air again on Sunday.

Perhaps Mayfield won’t throw four touchdowns for the second week in a row, but Jared Goff might in his home debut. Safely ensconced indoors for what should be an up-tempo contest, Goff is sniffing a ripe Bucs defense. Injuries have nuked Tampa’s already suspect secondary — including All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield. The Lions finally have a bonafide downfield threat in Jameson Williams to create field-flipping big plays — something their games already delivered at the third-highest rate in 2023 (11.4%). Detroit even operated with the fifth-fastest POE during an opener that was one of only four games to deliver higher-than-average play volume. Neither offense is likely to move at lightning speeds, but the pace will look plenty fast on this main slate.