Value Report: U.S. Open

The Canadian Open loves to deliver the dramatics! Even with more of a pillow fight in the playoff than a late-round KO, it was still a delightful watch that led to Ryan Fox picking up his second win in a four-event span. Fox defeated Sam Burns, who was a strong projection for us, and arguably should have won on the first playoff hole after his Sunday 62. I do enjoy a guessing game too at a new course when we try to determine who fits the best, which will again be the case for the U.S. Open at Oakmont. It’s also hard not to discuss the state of Rory McIlroy’s game after an utter disaster of a week too, missing the cut at 30% owned! Topics to discuss are of a plenty for the U.S. Open, and I look forward to deep-diving this slate with you all.

Well, an absolute swing and a miss for the RBC Canadian Open. I absolutely went with an approach that driving distance was going to be the key to the course, and even though Ryan Fox was the winner, it definitely proved out to be an event that favored accuracy more. No matter the case, I was focusing in on a lot of players that looked to have very solid recent form and almost all of them completely flopped. Both Matti Schmid and Erik Van Rooyen had been playing some of the best golf of their PGA Tour careers, which led to a much higher than anticipated ownership spike as well. The only two shining lights were Steven Fisk and Antoine Rozner. Specifically, Rozner was the one who could have absolutely been in GPP-winning lineups, as his ability to score continues to grow the more comfortable he gets on the PGA Tour. More than anything, though, let’s flush away the poor week and jump right into my favorite major of the year.

DraftKings has given us quite the dynamic pricing for the 2025 U.S. Open, where Scottie Scheffler breaks the record for the highest classic price at $14,400. He’s $2,000 clear of Rory, who has taken a clear third seat in the betting markets, while Bryson DeChambeau comes in at $11,000 despite being the second favorite. In addition to Bryson’s clear underprice, DK went much softer the rest of the way down with only nine golfers total in the $8K and $9K ranges. This makes rostering Scottie way easier than most weeks and really does a disservice to the price bump. That looks to be elevating the $7K ownership and likely playing out with minimal ownership in the lower $6Ks and especially the $5Ks. I don’t necessarily start out by avoiding chalk in this range, but the goal of this piece is to identify players who look to be quite low owned with ceiling opportunities. Those are the plays that provide the leverage to take down these massive prize pools that DraftKings has for the week, including $2 million paydays!

Jordan Spieth, $7,500 – Three majors to Jordan Spieth’s name, but you’d have to go back a decade now for his triumphant win at Chambers Bay at the 2015 U.S. Open. Spieth has gone through many evolutions as a golfer, but I’d argue right now his current state is best suited for the USGA’s game plan. Spieth’s mini-resurgence has been led from by his distance off the tee, and although the iron game has suffered since his wrist injury, his short game has shown major signs of life. He always had a knack for magic beans on and around the greens, which will be a huge factor per usual at a U.S. Open. But the ability to save par when it seems improbable, especially at Oakmont, is how golfers are going to separate this week. Muirfield Village is an awesome test in lead-up as well, and Spieth was as good as he’s been all year at that event.