Though it is often lost in the popular discourse around course fit, there is a marked difference between “key stats” and “predictive stats” when it comes to course fit. Most courses have key stats that ultimately correlate to the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon. It could be approach play from 100-150 yards, putts made from 5-20 feet, fairways gained over the field, or any number of stats that we can inspect. But, the question we’re trying to answer when profiling course fit ahead of the tournament is not just “What is going to be the most important statistical category this week?”
Our goal is to understand what skill set has predicted performance ahead of the event in the past, not explained afterward. Take strokes gained putting, for example. SG putting is always a key stat by the time the leaderboard has shaken out on Sunday afternoon, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that putting skill leading into the event was predictive of who gained the most strokes putting that week. Good putters are more likely to putt better than bad putters, of course, but that’s already accounted for in our base skill estimates. Our course-fit adjustments are trying to answer the question “Is being a good putter leading into the week more important than usual? Is it more predictive of your total strokes gained at the end of the week than it would be at an average PGA tour venue?”
Overview:
The PGA Tour heads back to TPC Deere Run this week for yet another iteration of the John Deere Classic. The Deere has been a staple on the Tour schedule for over 50 years, and has called TPC Deere Run home for more than 20. Typically the last week before a trip to Europe, the Deere has struggled to put together quality fields over recent years, and although the field this week is better than the last few years, it is still one of the worst of the season with a field strokes gained estimate of -0.3 below PGA Tour average. The good news is that weak-field birdie fests like the Deere often produce exciting finishes with some new faces coming down the stretch on Sunday, similar to last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, so we’ll take the optimistic view, and hope we get a fun, exciting runout this week.
The Course:
TPC Deere Run is laid out such that the test is, more or less, right in front of you. It’s a relatively short course, coming in at 7,300 yards, playing to a par 71, and offering plenty of birdie chances. Scoring averages here the last five years have been in the -1.5 to -2 range each round, despite the historically weak fields.
The greens and fairways will feature bentgrass, while the rough will be four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass, one of the few defenses that the course poses. Since 2015, a tee shot in the rough has cost you 0.4 strokes gained versus the fairway, putting fairways hit at a premium. That said, it is not a particularly challenging test off the tee. The fairways are wider than most courses on Tour, and between that and fewer “driver holes,” driving accuracy here has been close to 70%, which is in the 90th percentile of all Tour stops. In addition, only ~1% of shots have required a “reload,” or a repeated shot from the same spot following a penalty stroke. There are only three hazards that come into play on the entire golf course. Between the lack of hazards, the wide landing areas, and many “non-driver” holes, it is difficult to lose balls here.
Greens in regulation are easy to come by at TPC Deere Run, with players hitting the green about 70% of the time, but given the birdie-fest nature of the event, approach play will still be key this week. The lack of length gives players a lot of short irons/wedges into greens, and their ability to produce scoring chances with those clubs gives them a chance to win come Sunday. Many greens are perched on top of steep runoffs, where missed greens result in tricky up-and-downs, so squirrelly approach shots are costly, and around-the-green ability is rewarded more than many courses, with thick rough everywhere around the surfaces. Strokes gained around the green from the fairway are harder to come by than a typical course, and if you are not confident in your around-the-green ability, it can come back to bite you.
Course Fit:
As is the case with most TPC venues, Deere Run is a fairly vanilla PGA Tour course. Leaderboards over the years have featured all sorts of players between speed demons, plodders, approach specialists, and good putters, so truly anyone can win this week. That said, there are a few skill sets that have stood out the last several years here. Notably, around-the-green skill and approach skill.
The data suggests that above-average ARG and APP players have outperformed expectations in recent years. Deere Run requires more birdies than most events, while offering only three par 5s. To generate those birdie looks, it’s paramount to hit short irons well, and the ease of the off-the-tee test allows for a lot of perfect-lie, straightforward approach shots, where skilled iron players thrive.
Deere Run also features a lot more tightly-mown areas than most Tour setups, so when players do miss the green, they have a chance to separate with ARG skill more than they would at a course with thick rough surroundings, which often become a question of “lie quality” more than ARG skill.
Overall, Deere Run course-fit adjustments are going to be smaller in magnitude compared to other weeks with more specific tests, but where adjustments are present, they will be skewed toward talented approach and around-the-green golfers.
