Last Updated: April 23rd at 9:55am ET
Draft night props are not the same as the player props I covered for ETR subscribers during the NFL season.
The obvious issue with draft props is that someone knows the actual answer – it’s not something that’s settled on the field. In other words, Dolphins GM Chris Grier knows what he’ll do if he’s on the clock if both Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are on the board. So it’s possible for us to put in money drawing stone dead, which typically isn’t the case on player props.
That doesn’t mean that the draft prop market is efficient, it just means that it’s exclusively information-based. The way I like to bet props is to gather a bunch of outs (aka places to bet), stalk information on Twitter and then make bets before the lines get taken down or adjusted.
A good example of this was all the smoke around Tua slipping this week. You could have gotten Tua to be the third QB off the board at +215 or better just a few days ago – now it’s around +105. We got a ton of value just by grinding simple, publicly-available information. Feel free to follow my NFL Only list on Twitter if you want to stalk.
My point is that the bets I’ve made below are merely based on speculation – the information-based bets are the real money-makers and the ones we’ll have to react to in real time.
Note 1: This is a unique draft season because there were no Pro Days and no offseason workouts where press has access to front office. Athletic and medical testing is incomplete on a lot of players. As Daniel Jeremiah pointed out, we’re likely to see less groupthink and “some will be shocked at how high/low these guys go.” A GM told Ian Rapoport that “The media is wronger about mock drafts this year than you guys have ever been.” This year more than ever, taking longshots makes sense in draft props.
Note 2: Line shopping in this market is incredibly important. There are massive differences between books on a lot of the more exotic props. I’ve noted some of those inefficiencies below, but there are plenty more to take advantage of. Something that is worth a bet at +700 may not be worth a bet at +400.
1. No RB drafted in Round 1 (+230 William Hill)
The NFL continues to get smarter when it comes to the relative value of running backs. Last year, the only first-round RB was Josh Jacobs to the archaic mind of Jon Gruden – and that was all the way down at No. 24. Recent first-rounders like Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny have proven to be irresponsible selections. One thing to note about this year’s class is there isn’t one player who stands above the rest. I’ve seen various draftniks say D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are their RB1. If we throw Cam Akers and Zack Moss into the mix, there are six backs arguably in the same tier – something that should push them all down on draft night. Right now I’d say it’s a coin flip that no RB goes in first round, but we’re getting +230 here.
2. Justin Jefferson draft position under 21.5 (-110 William Hill)
Jefferson stands out as one of the safest picks in the draft. He had incredible college production, tested extremely well at the Combine and has no injury concerns. It would be really surprising if any team has Jefferson worse than the WR4 on their board — and I suspect many will have him in their top-3. Before we get to pick 22, the Cardinals, Jets, Raiders (twice), 49ers, Broncos and Eagles are all serious candidates to take a wideout. Note that Jefferson under 21.5 is -110 at William Hill and under 21.5 is -156 on FanDuel.
3. Jonathan Taylor first RB drafted (+200 William Hill) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire first RB drafted (+2000 Kambi)
D’Andre Swift has settled in as the heavy favorite (-200) to be the first running back off the board. That makes sense thanks to his pass-catching ability, but the scouting community seems genuinely divided on who the best RB in this class is as I noted above. I don’t think 66% of teams have Swift as the top RB, which is what the -200 implies.
So I’m up to take shots on the electric Combine plus college production of Jonathan Taylor at +200. And while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is very unlikely to go ahead of Swift and Taylor, it’s in the range of outcomes thanks to his route-running ability. See my note in the intro about the unpredictability of this year’s draft. The +2000 line implies a mere 4.76% chance of CEH being the RB1 and that’s the kind of anti-fragile bet I want to embrace given these draft conditions.
4. Adam Trautman first TE drafted (+900 FanDuel) and Harrison Bryant first TE drafted (+1600 William Hill)
Cole Kmet is the massive favorite to be the first tight end off the board at around -400 in most books. This is another chance to embrace the fact that we have less inside information this year than any other draft in history. Kmet is far from a clean, standout prospect — even in a weak tight end class. Note that Adam Trautman is +550 on William Hill to be the first TE drafted but +900 on Fanduel. As for Harrison Bryant, it’s a stretch but plugged-in Peter Schrager of NFL Network mocked Bryant to the Patriots in the first round. Note that Harrison Bryant is only +700 on Kambi but +1600 on William Hill.
5. Jalen Reagor to be drafted ahead of Denzel Mims (+275 William Hill)
Mims has come from way off the radar to be one of this draft’s fastest risers. Or at least that’s the way it’s perceived in the media. But Reagor was the better prospect for much of the last 12 months and Daniel Jeremiah says the TCU product is among the prospects who “will go higher than anticipated.” Getting +275 here is excellent value on a head-to-head matchup that is a coin-flip at best.
The first five bets above were made on April 17 and 18. The bets below were made on April 23, the morning of the draft.
6. Tristan Wirfs to be drafted by the Giants (+250 MGM)
Given the strength of the tackles in this draft, Dave Gettleman’s affinity for Hog Mollies and their need at the position, it’s highly likely they go offensive line in Round 1. Gettleman also never trades back. Most reports have the Giants preferring Wirfs to Jedrick Wills, but Wills is the favorite at +120. To get Wirfs at +250 is strong.
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be selected before JK Dobbins (+145 MGM)
Virtually every reputable reporter says the NFL is higher on CEH than the public thinks. They also say he’ll go higher than most mocks show. I already have the 20-1 on CEH to be the first RB off the board (see above), but getting plus money on him vs. Dobbins is strong. Edward-Helaire’s pass-catching game fits the current NFL environment better than Dobbins.
8. Andrew Thomas under 10.5 draft position (-164 MGM)
Thomas is another player the NFL is reportedly extremely high on. The flagged drug test by Mekhi Becton certainly helps. Thomas is reportedly in the mix to be the first OL off the board, a bet you can get at +700 if interested. Given how many tackle-needy teams there are in the top-10 and Thomas’ apparent lock status as a top-4 option on most team’s boards, I’m willing to lay the -164.
9. Albert Okuegbunam first TE drafted (+1100 MGM)
I do think Cole Kmet is likely to be the first TE off the board, but it’s not as likely as the markets suggest. So I’m adding Albert O to the small shots I took in bet 4 above. Perhaps a team wants to take a shot on the freak measureables — he stands 6’5/258 and ran 4.49 at the Combine.
