Welcome to the second playoff edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today’s article is a strategy session as I want to dive into some of the challenges and opportunities around the quirky NBA schedule that has DFS players playing the same slate every other day.
The first two days of NBA Playoffs DFS has been a mix of frustrating results and questioning of analysis. This is a natural response that every DFS player has when the results aren’t there, but the challenge of replaying an identical slate two days later will really have you questioning your methods. So I’ve spent the last two days re-examining some of my assumptions to get a better feel for what we can expect going forward. I think that process is one that might help you so I figured let’s make this a fully transparent GPP article. I’ll cover each of the eight first-round playoff matchups in this space and highlight what our assumptions were and how we should expect those assumptions to hold going forward.
The Hypotheses
Utah vs. Denver
Assumption #1: Nikola Jokic would get his through a facilitator’s role that pulls Rudy Gobert away from the basket.
Jokic was used via the post-up more frequently than the elbow touches we expect. His post-up rate was modestly higher than the regular season while he got the same number of elbow touches he averaged in the regular season despite playing 10 more minutes than he does in a typical NBA game. His pass percentage was down and the more aggressive Jokic got the majority of his production through scoring. While it’s just one game, this wasn’t an encouraging sign for the hypothesis. Jokic is a skilled enough player to get his production through this method but it impacts the other options around him. The cutters (Paul Millsap/Michael Porter Jr./Jerami Grant) would cede opportunity to the spot-up shooters (Jamal Murray/Torrey Craig/Monte Morris).
Assumption #2: Donovan Mitchell will need to facilitate more in the absence of Mike Conley and Denver’s defensive attention will force more drive and kick from Mitchell.
Mitchell took 33 shots and broke the slate with a round 1 leading usage of 44 percent. The Jazz did fire up 47 three-point attempts but the assumption couldn’t have been more wrong. The Jazz targeted Michael Porter Jr. relentlessly in pick-and-roll and Torrey Craig’s inability to stay on the court without foul trouble left the Nuggets searching for options. We think they eventually found the right one with Jerami Grant’s length but Mitchell punished their strategy of going under on picks. We expect they’ll try to hedge more in future games and get the ball out of Mitchell’s hands. If that’s the case, Mitchell should be over-owned today and secondary play-makers like Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson should have more offensive responsibility. We’ll see if the Nuggets make the appropriate adjustments but we expect the ownership to give us a good reason to hope they do.
Assumption #3: Michael Porter Jr. has a clear minutes ceiling.
It was clear early on the Jazz were going to relentlessly target Michael Porter Jr.’s defense. This is an aspect of projecting playoff rotations and adjustments that doesn’t show up in the regular season. Porter Jr. is going to have volatile playing time going forward because his offense needs to outweigh his defense and with Jokic-Murray the offense is less of a necessity. The ceiling for production will still be there but you’ll want to take a consistently contrarian approach with Porter Jr.
Toronto vs. Brooklyn
Assumption #1: The Raptors will force the Nets’ weaker shooters into boatloads of contested 3s.
Garrett Temple and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot took 19 combined three-point attempts as the Raptors forced Caris LeVert into a distributor role. This assumption played out precisely how we expected and we don’t see many reasons for Toronto to change or many adjustments Brooklyn can make. The Nets just don’t have as many options due to the limited roster and they’re going to want to ramp up variance with more threes. We’d expect Temple, Kurucs, and Luwawu-Cabarrot to continue bombing away from three.
Assumption #2: The pace coupled with tight rotations will give the Raptors a good chance to insulate themselves from blowout risk.
We feel pretty good about this one as well. Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka delivered GPP-winning performances while O.G. Anunoby delivered value, and poor shooting held back Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam from hitting the mark. The Raptors did play a little looser rotation than we hoped in the frontcourt as Rondae Hollis-Jefferson got playing time we weren’t expecting. This capped the upside on Pascal Siakam who happened to be our favorite play. We think Siakam has a clear matchup advantage and should bounce back but it was strange to see FVV-Lowry on pace for their usual 40 minutes and Siakam lagging well behind.
Assumption #3: The Nets will tighten up their rotation considerably.
The first half was not a good result as the Nets got minutes for Chiozza and Donta Hall. In the second half they played their starting five (minus Kurucs for foul trouble) for 15-16 of the first 20 minutes. IF the Nets can keep games competitive, it’s going to come with monstrous workloads for their main six players (LeVert, Harris, Allen, Kurucs, TLC, and Temple). We thought they’d utilize Tyler Johnson more heavily as a seventh man (he came in after Chiozza but eventually surpassed him in the 2H) and then cobble together some backup frontcourt minutes from Anderson/Hall/Thomas. The Johnson assumption is the one that will get tested going forward. He’s extremely cheap and coming with no ownership so if we’re right, there will be some opportunity in large field GPPs.
Philadelphia vs. Boston
Assumption #1: The Philadelphia offense will emphasize Joel Embiid heavily.
Embiid ranked 15th in touches and his 30.6 usage rate was actually lower than his seasonal average (31.5). This was one of the more disappointing results from the first set of games and one that watching the games felt clear. Embiid was scoring relatively efficiently from the post and the 76ers got off to a good start but they simply lost track of getting him opportunities in the second quarter. Embiid predictably got the entire frontcourt into foul trouble (Theis 5 in 25 minutes, Williams 4 in 13 minutes) and got to the FT line (12 attempts) with ease. The strategy worked; the 76ers just didn’t deploy it consistently. This looks like a simple correction and one we’re excited to invest in.
Assumption #2: Philadelphia will utilize an 8-man rotation with Korkmaz/Burks/Milton minutes dependent on game-flow.
It was clear the 76ers are concerned about how Furkan Korkmaz fits into this series as he played just 5.5 minutes in the first half. Given the defensive issues for Korkmaz, it makes sense. Gordon Hayward’s injury might allow Korkmaz onto the floor more frequently as it puts one less driving offensive threat on the floor for the Celtics, but the 76ers look to have a clear Top 7.
Assumption #3: Matisse Thybulle is a necessity.
Thybulle played 33 minutes and was the only 76er that had any modest success against Jayson Tatum. We expect Thybulle will move into the starting lineup and his low-usage offensive game should facilitate even more offense for Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid.
Dallas vs. LA Clippers
Assumption #1: The Clippers will trap and defend Luka Doncic aggressively, forcing shooters to beat them.
This felt like a big victory for the first five minutes of the game when Luka struggled mightily with turnovers. Even with the Porzingis ejection depleting the personnel around him and allowing the Clippers to focus even more intently on Doncic, he was able to post a 43.3 usage rate and 55 assist rate. Luka’s incredible, and while we think the matchup will make things very difficult, it’s clear he can still get his through bulk volume. We still think there will be better opportunities relative to ownership on the Dallas scorers.
Seth Curry played 33 minutes and Trey Burke (20), Kleber (34), Hardaway Jr (36), and Finney Smith (32) were prioritized in the rotation ahead of Wright (6), Jackson (DNP), Barea (DNP). The Mavericks know they need the floor spacing and shooting so taking cheap shots on these guys makes a ton of sense in GPPs.
Assumption #2: The Clippers’ secondary pieces may be matchup-dependent and difficult to project.
With Shamet, Beverley, and Harrell back we weren’t sure how the minutes would breakout between the three. While we ended up pretty close in projection, what we saw brought some clarity going forward. Patrick Beverley is a necessity for how the Clippers want to play defense against Luka Doncic and the Reggie Jackson/Lou Williams/Montrezl Harrell lineups are a big problem defensively. We expect Jackson to get phased out of the rotation a bit opening more playing time for Beverley. He committed five fouls in 20 minutes and that will be a challenge to stay on the floor but with no direct minutes limit and his role a necessity, we see big upside for Beverley. We think this series the Clippers would prefer to end up with Kawhi-PG13-Morris-Beverley-Zubac-Harrell-Lou Will-Green as their eight-man rotation with platoon or spot minutes from Jackson and Shamet.
Orlando vs. Milwaukee
Assumption #1: The Bucks would still play deep rotations.
The minutes ceiling for Giannis Antetokounmpo was one of the reasons we thought a fade compared to Lebron/Harden was in play given the ownership discrepancies yesterday. The Bucks played poorly, Giannis played just 34 minutes and then Harden lost minutes to a blowout and ended up playing the same amount. It was extremely frustrating, but the process appears right. The Bucks played 11 different guys in the first half and while Giannis led the way in minutes (34), they didn’t get a single other starter above 31 in a game they were trailing the entire time. We’ll see if the Bucks adapt but with blowout risk (double-digit favorites again) prevalent throughout the series, we expect we’ll get a game or two where Giannis barely cracks 30 minutes and has a big uphill battle against Harden-LeBron-Lillard who should reach into the 40s.
Assumption #2: The Bucks would blowout the Magic and a systemic offensive failure would make value plays vulnerable at heavy ownership.
The Magic won 122-110. Whoops.
Indiana vs. Miami
Assumption #1: Miami would play a tight playoff rotation that kicked a few key contributors to the curb.
We thought the tighter eight-man rotation would include spot minutes for Nunn or Herro as the eighth guy with a core seven of: Butler, Dragic, Crowder, Iguodala, Adebayo, Olynyk, and Robinson. When Derrick Jones Jr. checked in and Tyler Herro played 15 1H minutes it was clear our assumptions were wrong. While we think Miami would be better leaning on the veterans, it’s clear their confidence in Tyler Herro is going to lead to a nice role in this series. Indiana’s propensity to play smaller wing lineups should also facilitate these rotations. We think they can still clean up things without Derrick Jones Jr but until they do, the Miami value (Crowder, Iguodala, Robinson) that we thought we had is far more fragile.
Assumption #2: Duncan Robinson is a big part of the playoff rotation.
Robinson’s shooting and impact are integral to Miami’s offensive success but in the playoffs you have to hold your own defensively. It was clear the Pacers were going to attack Robinson over and over and it really cut into his minutes. He ended up playing just 24 minutes. Like Michael Porter Jr., his minutes will vary heavily based on whether his offense is outweighing his defense. On Tuesday, he shot just 2-8 from three-point range and the playing time was cut while Herro played 34 minutes.
Oklahoma City vs. Houston
Assumption #1: Eric Gordon’s not ready to carry the offense, forcing more responsibility on Harden.
Gordon was phenomenal and even got up to 30 minutes in the first playoff game. We missed badly on this one and it allowed the Rockets to ease Harden’s minutes far more than we expected. We think tighter games will bring the 40s in minutes from Harden but Gordon’s a bigger threat to soak up usage than previously thought. This is more detrimental to guys like Robert Covington and Danuel House who were being leaned on more heavily in the restart.
Assumption #2: OKC would be able to get into transition through their strong defense.
The Thunder struggled defensively and were stagnant in the halfcourt. The return of Luguentz Dort should help and Houston probably won’t shoot as well as they did from three-point range in the first three quarters, but Dennis Schroder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were not able to capitalize in transition and looked lost in the halfcourt. This was a big miss as the halfcourt nature of the game favored Gallinari, Chris Paul, and Steven Adams.
Assumption #3: Danilo Gallinari and Chris Paul would be unleashed.
Gallinari played 33 minutes while CP3 played 37 and both sat the final two minutes. We feel good about the Thunder leaning on their core five (Schroder, SGA, Paul, Gallinari, Adams) going forward.
Portland vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Assumption #1: Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s defense would necessitate more minutes.
Green played just 24 minutes but foul trouble looks to have been the major culprit. KCP played 28 minutes which wasn’t as much as we had hoped but the Waiters-Cook-Smith minutes were all cut almost entirely, which IS what we expected. Markieff Morris and Alex Caruso benefited in Game 1 more than we thought, but it’s pretty clear the Lakers are going to need players to defend Dame-CJ and they’re going to need shooting. Green-KCP combined to go 2-13 from 3 and 4-21 overall. With normal shooting regression, we think each player has upside into the 30s.
Assumption #2: Hassan Whiteside has the most upside to fill the power forward minutes void.
Whiteside played 26 minutes and was a huge difference maker protecting the rim late in the fourth for the Blazers. As long as Zach Collins is out, we expect this two center lineup to be a big part of Portland’s planning.
Assumption #3: The Lakers’ offense will condense heavily for LeBron and Anthony Davis.
The two combined for 44 field goal attempts and 24 free throws. Both under-performed from an efficiency standpoint with Davis a real struggle (33% shooting) but we expect this to be the case going forward. Monstrous minutes and usage for AD-LeBron are going to be a necessity for this iteration of the Lakers.
