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Each week in this space, we’ll look at how ADP has changed over the past week in the industry. We’re looking at ADP over the last seven days compared to ADP the previous 8-14 days.
*Visuals provided by Sam Hoppen
FFPC FBG ADP Change
NFFC OC ADP Change
Underdog ADP Change
This week’s risers
1. We’re starting to see Darrell Henderson‘s ADP settle. He’s up to 45.6 from 64.1 on FFPC and up to 50.6 from 82.5 on NFFC. That sounds about right to us, perhaps even a little light. The Rams haven’t brought in another back yet, and Henderson’s floor/ceiling combination is stronger than many other dead zone RBs. He’s very appealing in the fifth round and draftable in the fourth as well.
2. We’re also seeing the ADP settle on Aaron Rodgers now that he’s officially playing for the Packers this season, up to 99.7 on FFPC from 125.7 and up to 77.7 from 99.4 on NFFC. QBs tend to go a bit earlier on NFFC given the scoring (6 points per passing TD). We agree with the market that Rodgers should be QB8 and that he’s valued appropriately in a vacuum. However, we’re more likely to draft a QB in different pockets of the draft, grabbing the second-tier elite QBs (QBs 2-5), grabbing breakout candidates like Ryan Tannehill or Joe Burrow in the double-digit rounds, or waiting on QB and taking multiple swings at high-upside options like Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, and Taysom Hill, taking advantage of the uncertainty of their situations.
3. On Underdog, the top riser inside the Top 100 in ADP is Kareem Hunt (up to 70.2 from 72.8). Hunt is listed as one of Jack Miller’s possible RB Dead Zone exceptions, and we have him ranked well ahead of ADP. Hunt’s unique combination of a stable weekly role plus high-end contingent value allow him to fit any type of roster build.
4. We think the market has overreacted a little bit to Tre’Quan Smith in light of the Michael Thomas injury. He’s up to WR60 on Underdog, WR62 on FFPC, and WR61 on NFFC. We have Smith ranked more like WR65. The concern with Smith is that he’s not talented enough to capitalize on the opportunity at WR while Michael Thomas is out, and that his ceiling is diminished at the most important time of the fantasy year: the second half of the season when Michael Thomas returns. We like him if he slips before ADP but are targeting younger upside bets in front of him, such as Jalen Reagor, Rashod Bateman, and Terrace Marshall.
5. Deshaun Watson has seen an increase in ADP across the industry since reporting to camp. Whether or not he will face a suspension is unknown. He’s up to 186.5 from 202.6 on NFFC and up to 180.5 from 272.8 on FFPC. He’s a logical high-reward, low-risk option to take at the end of managed leagues.
This week’s fallers
1. Michael Thomas is settling into the seventh round of drafts. His ADP is down to 73.5 from 39.5 on NFFC and down to 76.0 from 37.5 on NFFC. I recently grabbed him at the 7.11 in an NFFC Online Championship. Thomas becomes a smart upside pick in drafts after that tier of WRs where we start to lose some younger upside (Michael Gallup, Jerry Jeudy, Laviska Shenault), especially in managed leagues and ones that have an overall contest attached to it.
2. The top faller on Underdog inside the Top 100 in ADP was Tee Higgins. We stan for Tee Higgins around these parts. He’s still going inside the fourth round on average (down to 46.4 from 44.5) and is one of our favorite picks at the 4/5 turn.
3. Outside the Top 100, another ETR favorite is slipping on Underdog. Dyami Brown is down to 169.8 from 167.2. Dyami Brown was Justin Herzig’s highest-exposure WR in his recent best ball portfolio article.
4. Oddly, Taysom Hill fell from pick 216.3 to mostly undrafted on NFFC. The ability to take free swings on upside late at QB is becoming one of my favorite managed redraft strategies.
What I’m watching now
Carson Wentz is expected to miss 5-12 weeks with foot surgery. Wentz himself becomes undraftable in managed leagues, though he’s still worth taking a crack at late in best ball leagues. The Colts have an excellent fantasy playoffs schedule, projecting for the fifth-highest team total in Weeks 15-17. ADPs on Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell had risen since the beginning of best ball draft season. We don’t see a huge change to their outlooks, so there may become a good buying opportunity here and on Colts players in general if they start slipping meaningfully below current ADPs.
