Kansas City @ San Francisco
Team Totals: Chiefs 26, 49ers 23
The Chiefs catch San Francisco’s arguably league-best defense in its most vulnerable spot with starters DT Javon Kinlaw (knee), CB Emmanuel Moseley (ACL), and LB Azeez Al-Shaair (MCL) on I.R., DL Arik Armstead (foot/ankle), EDGE Nick Bosa (groin), and DB Jimmie Ward (hand) coming off of missed games, and CB Charvarius Ward (groin) and SS Talanoa Hufanga (concussion) in Week 7 doubt. Last Sunday, the 49ers’ defense was vulnerable enough to concede three offensive TDs, 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and nearly 170 rushing yards to Atlanta in San Francisco’s 28-14 defeat. Including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has faced Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers twice since entering the NFL, combining to go 50-of-80 passing (63%) for 600 yards (7.5 YPA), a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and rushing lines of 9/29/1 and 5/7/0. I’m not backing off of Mahomes as a top-shelf QB1 here. … Kansas City’s backfield remains a hot-hand mess; in Week 6’s loss to Buffalo, Jerick McKinnon paced Chiefs RBs in snaps (43%), Clyde Edwards-Helaire led in touches (9), and Isiah Pacheco was reintroduced as K.C.’s active No. 3 back with four touches on a 15% playing-time clip. Even against a severely shorthanded Niners defense, I’m approaching CEH as a flex option at best.
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