CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 4 – Saturday Main

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Bo Nix (ORE – DK $9,600 FD, $12,200) – This is the absolute nut spot for Bo Nix and the Oregon Ducks, as they should be able to rack up touchdown drives (45+ team total) in a game where the Buffs should be able to move the ball well enough on offense to keep Oregon’s starters in the game. The only challenge with Nix is the price tag, as you have to make a few concessions on both sites in order to fit him into your lineup. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

Tyler Shough (TTU – DK $8,100) – While there is some concern with this being a tough road environment versus a team that plays at a very slow pace, this is still a pass-happy offense with a team total in the neighborhood of 30 points. Shough accounts for so much of their offense that if they hit that team total, it would be hard to fathom a scenario where Shough has a bad game, especially given his rushing ability. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

Chandler Morris (TCU – DK $7,800, FD $10,500) – We have some slight concerns that SMU is actually a decent defense, but TCU is in a solid spot at home and Morris is a guy who has a nice rushing floor in a game that should see a boatload of plays (TCU ranks second in plays per minutes and SMU 29th). TCU’s receiver rotation is quite deep, so we would not force pass-catching correlations too much. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.