Week 9 Recap

Week 9 was a high hit rate week for the model. Zach Ertz was the TE1 on the week, and the fifth highest scoring receiver among WRs and TEs. Overall 9 of 13 players (69%) identified by the model who played Week 9 beat their projections, and three posted over 20 PPR points. Even REDACTED beat his projection, which was very tilting. But he still failed to get in the end zone, which made me happy.

 

Here are the full results for Week 9:

Player Team Projection Week 9
D.J. Moore CAR 12.7 17.1
Mark Andrews BAL 12.5 4.1
Courtland Sutton DEN 12.4 17.3
Auden Tate CIN 12.3 BYE
Robby Anderson NYJ 11.9 5.3
Keenan Allen LAC 11.1 7
Tyler Boyd CIN 10.9 BYE
Jamison Crowder NYJ 10.4 22.3
REDACTED LAC 10.4 14.3
Demaryius Thomas NYJ 10.2 3.9
Preston Williams MIA 10.2 24.2
Jarvis Landry CLE 10.1 17.1
Sammy Watkins KC 10 13.3
Jason Witten DAL 9.2 13.8
Keelan Doss OAK 8.9 INACTIVE
Dede Westbrook JAX 8.5 OUT
Zach Ertz PHI 8 25.3

 

 

Week 10

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.55 (down 1 point from 0.55 in Week 9).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

 

Teams on BYE this Week are: the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Redskins.

 

Player Team Projection Actual Difference Main slate DK salary
D.J. Moore CAR 13.6 12.9 -0.6 5200
Tyler Boyd CIN 13 11.5 -1.5 4700
Curtis Samuel CAR 12.8 12 -0.8 4600
Davante Adams GB 12.6 11.1 -1.5 6900
Chris Conley JAC 12.5 12.3 -0.3 BYE
D.J. Chark JAC 12.1 11.8 -0.3 BYE
Keenan Allen LAC 11.7 9.8 -1.9 NA
Auden Tate CIN 11.6 10.5 -1.1 4000
Chris Godwin TB 11.2 10.7 -0.5 7400
Christian Kirk ARI 11.1 9.3 -1.8 5200
Noah Fant DEN 10.1 9.9 -0.2 BYE
Calvin Ridley ATL 9.3 9 -0.3 5400
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.2 7.9 -1.3 BYE
Mark Andrews BAL 8.4 5 -3.4 5200
Demaryius Thomas NYJ 8.2 7.5 -0.8 3500

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • REDACTED put up enough points to get himself thrown off the buy low, hopefully for good. RIP.
  • ETR favorite Chris Godwin makes the buy low for the first time ever. With Mike Evans putting up back to back explosive weeks that have been fully supported by his opportunity metrics, there may be a sense in the market that riding the hot hand is the correct play. The model argues that this is the week to pivot to Godwin however, and let the masses pay the extra $200 for Evans.
  • Two Bengals receivers make the list, and with a new QB taking over in Cincinnati it’s likely that they will be low owned. Ryan Finley is raw and untested but based on his college production he profiles as a prospect that could provide above average play at the QB position. Mixing Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate into your tournament lineups should provide you with some upside potential at low cost, while also differentiating your entries.
  • Davante Adams is on the list, but his projection is based on a single week (Week 9) so take it with a large grain of salt. He underperformed against the Chargers and the team as a whole is likely set to rebound, but a one week sample is not typically where the model succeeds. At $6900 on DK he’s also not exactly cheap. If you have reasons you’ve identified to jam him in against Carolina then perhaps weight his inclusion here slightly, but otherwise feel free to ignore.