Week 11 Recap

I’m exhausted from a long day of travel back from Mexico, so I’ll keep this recap short. Two of the top three receivers on the week were on the model: DJ Chark and Calvin Ridley.

Here are the full results for Week 11:

Player Team Projection Week 11 Actual
Odell Beckham CLE 12.3 10
Keenan Allen LAC 12.1 21.1
Sammy Watkins KC 10.8 4.6
Auden Tate CIN 10.8 9.6
Allen Robinson CHI 10.1 5.5
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.4 OUT
Devin Singletary BUF 9.2 8.9
Terry McLaurin WAS 9.2 9.9
T.Y. Hilton IND 9 OUT
A.J. Brown TEN 9 BYE
Calvin Ridley ATL 8.6 28.3
DJ Chark JAC 12.1 30.4
Noah Fant DEN 10.1 9.3
Chris Conley JAC 12.5 11.8

 

Week 12

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.57 (up 1 point from 0.56 in Week 11).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

Teams on BYE this Week are: the Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Minnesota Vikings

 

Player Team Projection Actual Difference Main slate DK salary
Davante Adams GB 15.4 14.9 -0.5 NA
Julio Jones ATL 13.5 13 -0.5 8000
Odell Beckham CLE 13.2 11.5 -1.7 7000
Evan Engram NYG 11.2 10.8 -0.4 5200
Sammy Watkins KC 9.8 8.9 -0.9 BYE
Gerald Everett LAR 9.8 8.9 -0.9 BYE
Zach Pascal IND 9.6 9 -0.6 NA
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.5 7.6 -1.9 4900
Mike Gesicki MIA 9.4 9 -0.4 3400
A.J. Brown TEN 9.4 7.4 -2 4700
Josh Reynolds LAR 9.3 8.2 -1.1 BYE
Paul Richardson WAS 9.1 8.2 -0.9 4000
Chris Conley JAX 9.1 8.5 -0.6 4100
Auden Tate CIN 9.1 8.1 -1 4100
Kenny Stills HOU 8.7 8 -0.7 NA
Allen Robinson CHI 8.7 7.2 -1.5 6500
Nelson Agholor PHI 8.7 6.5 -2.2 4100
Danny Amendola DET 8.2 7.2 -1 4400
Eric Ebron IND 8.1 7 -1.1 NA
Tyler Boyd CIN 8.1 6.6 -1.5 5000

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Julio Jones is on the list. I don’t know what to do with my hands. Defense matters here for ownership because this week the Falcons happen to be playing the Bucs. This means Julio will be chalky even at $8000. However, there remains real hate for him out there as well. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3, and his 8 TD season of 2018 is a distant memory, which may depress ownership slightly.
  • Alshon Jeffery was out last week but may be back for a Week 12 home game against Seattle. If he suits up, he remains a good play at a great price.
  • Mike Gesicki’s opportunity has been solid over the past 4 weeks. He’s second on the team in targets over that span, but hasn’t done much with them, making him a solid under-the-radar punt play with upside at the bargain price of just $3400.
  • Auden Tate and Tyler Boyd are both back for another week on the list. Rookie QB Ryan Finley has been…not good. His QBR of 20 ranks him ahead of just Dwayne Haskins and Brian Hoyer over the past two weeks. With Tate $900 less than Boyd, he remains the better play if healthy — especially since he’s gotten far more recent opportunity with Finley under center.