Week 5 Recap
Week 5 was another excellent week for the model, but it was tempered by many of the players being high-owned. I’ve included the average ownership across 5 of the major GPPs for players that were on the main slate in the table below. Thielen, Hopkins, Fuller and Tate all did very well, but were also quite chalky.
This was due to a confluence of price, opportunity due to injury, and narratives all combining to create a consensus in the market. What is always good to see for a math only model like the Buy Low is that it still identified these players in an objective fashion. This allowed you to play the narratives with more confidence.
It still did a good job of finding hidden gems however. The top buy low player – Michael Gallup – was owned in just 0.62% of leagues, cost $5000 and put up 27.3 DK points. Likewise Dede Westbrook almost doubled his projected points, cost just $5300 on DraftKings, and was owned by around a half a percent of the field.
Here are the full results for Week 5:
|Name||Team||Projection||Salary||Ownership||Wk 5 DK Points|
The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.
The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.60, the highest mark of the season to date (up 5 points from 0.55 last week).
Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.
In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.
* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games. Currently it’s based on just two weeks of data.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game through the first 2 games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.
Teams on BYE the Week are: Buffalo, Indianapolis, Oakland, and Chicago.
- Three teams appear to be due for some positive passing regression this week. New England, The LA Chargers and Baltimore all have multiple receivers on the list. These are teams you may want to consider stacking.
- Odell Beckham Jr. makes the buy low list for the first time this year. Last year he was on the list once and turned in a WR1 performance that week. Seattle gives up more completions than league average from 5-15 yards past the line of scrimmage, so there really is no reason why Odell can’t find space to earn some targets this week. Much will depend on Baker having a bounce back game and the offensive line holding up better than they did against San Francisco on Monday Night. What makes him particularly interesting is that Beckham has a massive -3.3 point disparity between his expected production and actual, making him a prime candidate to be low owned at $6800 on DraftKings. With the Browns coming off a very public and humiliating loss, recency bias will be firmly in play.
- Emmanuel Sanders has already had one blow up game this season, and he trails Courtland Sutton by just 2 percentage points in target share and share of team air yards. Yet Sutton has 84.1 PPR points to Sanders’ 66.7. Like Mike Evans in week 3, Sanders looks like a proven commodity in a spot where Denver will likely want to game plan him the ball because recent results will make their upcoming opponents more likely to give Sutton special attention. Sanders is still capable of putting up a crooked number and he’s cheap at $4800 and likely to be low-owned.