Week 5 gave us the best two running back plays of the season, which narrowed the number of decisions you had to make in cash this week. Let’s break down the decision process on this slate and then touch on the results.
Quarterback
Colorado games are not fun to deal with this year, and this slate was no different. I did not really want to play $10,500 Caleb Williams, as I feared a complete blowout was in the range of outcomes, but his floor was unmatched on this slate. I figured if Colorado could score at all, you would really need to have him in your lineup. Ultimately, I reached a point late Friday where I decided that I was going to prioritize Williams, as the gap was not extremely wide between the receivers in the $4K range and $5K range.
The second quarterback spot was a bit of a discussion, as Seth Henigan had the best floor, but at $8,000 he was a tough fit with the expensive Caleb Williams. It was more reasonable to me to drop down to Luke Altmyer, Taylen Green, or Hudson Card. Altmyer had the best combination of rushing ability and price tag of that group. I thought Green may have been a bit over-projected (and is naturally more volatile) and viewed Card and Altmyer as very similar plays. I took the cost savings with Altmyer.
Running Back
With DraftKings asleep at the wheel on pricing for the Boise State and Memphis game, we had the fortune of locking in two generationally good running back plays in Ashton Jeanty and Blake Watson. Both were at least $2,000 underpriced, so it was a no-brainer to start most lineups this week with those guys.
Other running backs that I considered for FLEX included Will Shipley, Jonathon Brooks, Cam Skattebo, and LeQuint Allen. $4,000 Josh McCray was on my list, but I was only playing him if Reggie Love was ruled out, and all reports pre-lock suggested that Love would be good to go. I very slightly preferred Brooks of that group (mostly because I felt good about Texas’ offense), but I kept falling short on salary, so that cut down the choice to just Will Shipley versus LeQuint Allen. I had some schematic concerns that Clemson’s defense could shut down Allen like they did last year in this game when they shaded attention to Sean Tucker on read options and limited him to five carries. I waffled a bit on Allen versus Shipley up until lock but eventually clicked the Clemson running back due to his pass-game role and better team total. I did not see the gap between Shipley/Allen and the Brooks/Skattebo duo as very large, so it was more of acceptance than trying to rearrange other portions of my lineup to fit in the more expensive running back options.
Wide Receiver
The main reason I had hesitation all week on jamming in Caleb Williams at QB was that I really wanted to be able to play all of my WR spots from the group of Isaiah Williams, Brock Bowers, Jeremiah Hunter, Elijhah Badger, Ainias Smith, Deion Burks, and Roc Taylor. However, I found myself needing some fairly extreme savings at the position. If I dropped down to the $4K range twice, I could still play my favorite cash receiver on the slate in Isaiah Williams, who was the priority for me at the position.
The $4K range was somewhat thin, but it ended up being a pool of Jalin Conyers, Javon Antonio, and Ja’Tavion Sanders for which I gave serious consideration. Conyers was much cheaper at $4K flat, so he was fairly necessary to make this lineup work. He is not a typical college tight end and had some ceiling games last season, so I was okay with going there (with the expectation that he was likely to see 6-8 targets). While I thought Antonio could be really solid, I really did not want to play any Colorado player in cash, so I sided with Sanders in order to get in some cheap Texas exposure (a team I thought would smash), especially since I was not able to get up to Brooks at running back. Sanders had hit the 100+ yard bonus each of the last two games, and being live to hit 20 DK points without a touchdown is very appealing for a sub-$5K wide receiver.
Weekly Results
While Caleb Williams certainly delivered, he was really highly owned, so it was more of a requirement and not a point of separation. Luke Altmyer really struggled to move the ball after a promising 40-yard run to open the game. The slate was not won at second quarterback, as both Card and Green had middling results as well. I wish I had given more consideration to $4,800 Treyson Bourguet, who put up 25+ for Arizona State (who I played a lot of in GPP). Regardless of his actual result, he was a $4,800 starting quarterback for a team with decent weapons and a strong team total with every other viable quarterback on their roster unavailable. What really would have helped is the $900 allowing me to get up to Brooks or Skattebo at RB and then from Sanders to either Ainias Smith or Brock Bowers. I do not want to be too results-oriented, but I think I should of at least thought through that a bit more when in actuality I was just too dismissive of Bourguet as even an option for cash altogether.
The two running back locks smashed, rightfully punishing the faders. The rest of the position was a mixed bag. Shipley did not crack 15 points despite a touchdown, and Jaylin Lucas surprisingly caught some ownership at $4,600 and he only put up seven points. However, since Shipley only beat Lucas by seven points, the Lucas lineups were in a much better spot because they were more likely to separate at the WR position (with a Bowers over Sanders or Conyers, for example). Jonathon Brooks was 17% owned in the large $5 double-up, and his 40 points propelled most of that group over the cash line no matter what they did at receiver.
It was surprising to see Reggie Love not even warm up for Illinois, but since that game was in the late window, I had already burned a running back spot with Will Shipley, so I had no path to taking value at that position. If Love was ruled out Saturday morning, Josh McCray likely is 40+% owned on this slate and the entire dynamics change.
Ja’Tavion Sanders was over 60% owned in the large-field single-entry double-up I looked at, so while his early-game injury was rough, it was not a slate-ender to hit the cash line for most. However, the combination of Will Shipley‘s output plus having Sanders definitely ended my chance to turn $5 into $9. Javon Antonio was definitely not the play either at that price range, as he was effectively benched and air balled despite Colorado putting up 41 points. Jalin Conyers only put up 10 fantasy points (not bad for a $4K punt), but he did see eight targets including multiple red-zone targets. The bittersweet part of this slate was that Bowers, Hunter, Burks, and Roc Taylor all had really solid showings and none of them were in my lineup. Sad day, but such is life.
I thought I played decently well this week (probably better than last week where I smashed), but I could not overcome running a bit under expectation on the few spots that actually mattered. I hope some of you ended up on lineups with better results, as overall our top plays performed well. On to Week 6. Thanks for reading!
Season Results:
Week 0: 87th-percentile lineup
Week 1: 12th-percentile lineup
Week 2: 49th-percentile lineup
Week 3: 33rd-percentile lineup
Week 4: 92nd-percentile lineup
Week 5: 42nd-percentile lineup
