After an unlikely run to be crowned 2023 XFL champions after posting a 4-6 regular-season record, Arlington landed on the wrong side of variance in 2024, finishing with a 3-7 record despite just a -2 point differential, losing by exactly one point on three separate occasions. There were some positive takeaways from that 2024 campaign, namely the offense, which ranked third in points per game (24.7), first in PFF’s overall offensive grade (72.6), and first, by a wide margin, in overall passing offensive grade (87.4), nearly 10 points clear of Birmingham (77.7). Fortunately, the offensive core that posted those numbers remains fully intact heading into 2025 under the guidance of OC Chuck Long, who posted a 60.4% overall pass rate in 2023 and 59.3% pass rate in 2024 while averaging the league’s third-most plays per game (60.0).
With A.J. McCarron no longer in the league, Renegades QB1 Luis Perez might be the UFL’s most polished passer and is certainly the most experienced. Perez has been a spring football mainstay since 2019, where he started seven games for the then-AAF Birmingham Iron. Now entering his seventh season in the spring ranks, Perez has completed 63.4% of his passes for 6.7 YPA and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, most recently excelling as HC Bob Stoops’ signal-caller, where he’s completed 66.3% of his passes for 7.0 YPA and a 2.5:1 TD:INT ratio in 13 games with Arlington. Unlike many of the other UFL quarterbacks we’ll be considering weekly, Perez doesn’t offer much in the way of rushing upside, making him someone we’re more likely to stack or even double stack when rostering him in DFS formats.
Along with Perez, Arlington returns each of their top four pass catchers from a season ago, making this a rather straightforward aerial attack to project. Tyler Vaughns should once again slide in as the de facto WR1 after running a route on 91.4% of dropbacks, 94.9% of which came lined up outside, where he posted a team-high 21.7% target share and 28.9% Air Yards share on an 11.9-yard aDOT. Deontay Burnett will be back in his slot role, where he ran 95.7% of his routes last season, earning a 13.9% target share and 12.6% Air Yards share. One of the league’s most prolific pass-catching tight ends, Sal Cannella re-signed in February and will once again take over as Arlington’s TE1. In 2024, he ran a route on 84.3% of dropbacks, 71.3% of which were out of the slot, snagging a 19.8% target share and 14.7% Air Yards share. JaVonta Payton rounds out the quartet with the widest range of fantasy outcomes for anyone in this receiving corps. Last season, he was in a route for 73.2% of dropbacks, managing a modest 13.8% target share, but he led the team in Air Yards share (30.0%) on a team-high 19.1-yard aDOT, operating as the Renegades’ lid-lifting downfield threat. The low-volume, high-aDOT role means he’s going to run into plenty of bagels, but when he and Perez connect, there is slate-winning upside. As such, he’s someone we’re more likely to target in DFS when ownership projects to be low and don’t mind avoiding when our opponents have interest.
The backfield is the lone position group that will get a bit of a makeover from last season following the departures of De’Veon Smith, Leddie Brown, and Devin Darrington, who combined to play on 92.2% of Arlington’s offensive snaps in 2024. I levied unfair criticism against Smith in the past; he was ultimately a productive UFL RB who averaged 4.1 YPC, including 3.1 Yards After Contact per Attempt with the league’s second-most broken tackles (33) on 110 rushing attempts, according to PFF. I believe replacing him will be a group effort that includes recently-acquired Kalen Ballage handling a majority of the early-down and short-down-and-distance work as a 6-foot-2, 231-pound battering ram, not unlike Smith before him. Dae Dae Hunter showed flashes in a brief stint last season, but I think the 5-foot-10, 190-pound back will primarily mix in as a change-of-pace option and long-down-and-distance specialist behind Ballage. While there’s a chance one or both backs become useful fantasy options, I’m willing to take a wait-and-see approach as we enter the season until we get a few more data points on exactly how touches will be distributed.
