Breakout or Fakeout: Week 7

Each week, there are unexpected performances across the NFL that leave fantasy gamers puzzled. In 2023, for example, you may have asked yourself the following:

• Is Puka Nacua’s 14-target performance in Week 1 a fluke or a sign of things to come? (Answer: He’s legit)
• Should I chase Will Levis after a dazzling 4-TD performance in his debut in Week 8? (Answer: No)
• De’Von Achane had 51 points in Week 3…after being a healthy scratch in Week 1? What the hell do I do with that information? (Answer: Buy Achane in all your leagues!)

The goal of this article is to help you separate the signal from the noise for the most perplexing breakout fantasy performances from the prior week. Each week, I will cover ~3-5 situations in depth through both a statistical and film-based lens to help you answer pressing questions related to waivers, trades, start-sit decisions, or DFS lineup decisions. Let’s get into it:

Ricky Pearsall | Troy Franklin | Cedric Tillman

Ricky Pearsall (gunshot wound) is the Last Remaining Healthy 49ers WR

Week 7 continued what’s been an unfortunate storyline of the 2024 NFL season: WR injuries. Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending knee injury on a nasty collision with a Chiefs defender, leaving the 49ers with Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and rookie Ricky Pearsall as their likely 3-WR set going forward. Samuel (pneumonia) and Jennings (hip) themselves are dealing with what appear to be minor ailments, but they should be considered somewhat questionable for Week 8.

The only silver lining of all these 49ers WR injuries is we got to see nearly a full complement of routes for Pearsall in Week 7. It was his first game back from a gunshot wound in late August, and he was unexpectedly thrust into a full-time role with both Deebo and Aiyuk unable to play for most of the game. What should we take away from our first glimpses of Pearsall? Should we go all-in on FAAB on a talent the 49ers thought worthy of a first-round selection? Or should we be skeptical that Pearsall can emerge from a pass-catching corps that still includes several strong options, even sans Aiyuk?

Before we get into the Week 7 film, let’s zoom out and consider Ricky Pearsall, the prospect. JJ Zachariason, who does an amazing job analyzing prospects from a statistical perspective, was fairly high on Pearsall, grading him as the WR6 in this class. In JJ’s model — which factors in age-adjusted production metrics, early-declare status, teammate target competition in college, and NFL Draft capital — Pearsall ranks at the top of a tier that included other rookie WRs that went in the late first or early second round of the NFL Draft. In other words, Pearsall ranks ahead of Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, and Ja’Lynn Polk, but behind the other first-round WRs. JJ also notes both Jayden Reed and Zay Flowers as potential upside comps for Pearsall, while acknowledging there are some holes in his profile that bring about, ummm, less exciting comps (Markus Wheaton, Denarius Moore).

Matt Harmon, who analyzes rookies from an individual route-running and film perspective, appears to be more optimistic than the statistical models suggest. He graded Pearsall as an above-average separator across all types of coverage (man/press/zone), with a particularly encouraging 87% success rate vs. man. While acknowledging the flaws in his game, Harmon speculates on his ceiling in the summary of his write-up, stating, “I can very much envision Pearsall getting 120+ targets in his NFL career at some point and, at worst, being a rock-solid running mate to a No. 1 wideout in a strong passing game with upside for more growth.”

If I were to summarize Pearsall’s prospect profile, he lacks the rock-solid production metrics that we usually look for in a first-round rookie WR. However, he has enough traits (route running, elite athleticism) and situation-based factors (tied to Kyle Shanahan/Brock Purdy offensive system) that I went into this season pretty bullish on his ceiling if injuries forced him into a larger-than-expected role.

So those are my priors on Pearsall: a boom-bust prospect with the traits and situation to have a high fantasy ceiling. Through one week of film, you can see both the “boom” and “bust” elements of his profile come to fruition.

Starting with the positives, I think Pearsall’s ability to get open vs. man coverage in the short area of the field translated fairly well to the NFL:

Both of these out routes are impressive for a rookie debut vs. the Chiefs’ secondary. Particularly in the first clip, you can see Pearsall effectively sell a move to the inside before breaking outside, allowing for an easy pitch-and-catch 9-yard gain. Pearsall also looked good on slants: