General Thoughts
Before we get into some positional options as tournament plays, let’s set the stage for tournament play in general in the NBA and for this slate.
Generally, you don’t need to build a lineup in NBA DFS that is filled with contrarian options. You need a few in order to distinguish yourself from the competition, but the good plays are usually the right plays in NBA DFS. Think of this space as options to supplement the Top Plays in lineup builds for GPPs.
For Friday’s slate, the chalk roster construction is going to be heavy on stars and scrubs. There is plenty of value on both sites to be able to afford superstars in your lineups. Given the roster construction is so clear, you have two paths to pivoting. You can either adjust your lineups for tournaments by simply swapping a few combinations of star-scrub for two balanced options or you can pivot off the chalky cheaper options and hope to beat people with differentiating the cheaper options who are naturally higher variance options. If you’re applying the second concept, you’d prefer to do it with cheaper options that are historically more variant (Troy Brown Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Jaren Jackson Jr., etc) and not the guys who are just insanely mispriced (Richaun Holmes on FD). If Russell Westbrook was min-priced we wouldn’t be fading him for ownership reasons because he’s going to deliver on that price tag such an incredibly high percentage of the time.
Point Guard
Seth Curry ($5,000 DK/$5,100 FD) – Curry comes with PG eligibility on FanDuel and SG eligibility on DraftKings but what he won’t come with on this opening slate is ownership. Curry’s caught a bit in pricing limbo on a slate that will highly prioritize stars and scrubs builds. He’s also a player that typically doesn’t have a monstrous ceiling you think of in GPPs (cleared 40 fantasy points just three times all season), but there’s reason for optimism. Dallas ran tighter rotations in the restart and Curry’s minutes were matched with Porzingis/Doncic most of the time. The defensive gravity that those two require is leaving Curry clean looks. Houston allows the third-most three point attempts to opposing backcourts and their fast-paced approach encourages teams to bomb away. The hefty price tag will require a really hot shooting night from Curry to justify the play but there is almost certainly no ownership attached to it. The floor is really low here but the ownership creates an interesting ceiling. He’s best used in very large field GPPs.
Ish Smith ($4,000 DK/$4,400 FD) – The Wizards backup point guard is a potential usage monster in a second unit that will pair most of his time up against weaker defenders like Cam Payne, Frank Kaminsky, etc. The Suns-Wizards projects as the game with the most possessions and Ish has a volatile offensive profile that occasionally earns more minutes when he’s hot.
Shooting Guard
The shooting guard position is one where we expect a lot of chalk to condense around James Harden, Caris LeVert, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, and perhaps Lonnie Walker on DraftKings. These are the strongest plays and by a good margin so don’t feel the need to force being contrarian, but there are some options.
Buddy Hield ($5,200 DK/$5,500 FD) – Hield is a streaky shooter who has topped 40 fantasy points 11 times this season and even cleared 50 four times. The Spurs have a slew of athletic backcourt defenders that bring some volatility to this matchup but since Hield relies more on quick release than getting to the basket we’re not as phased by the matchup. We also saw San Antonio play smaller lineups throughout the scrimmage season that could help with the pace. Hield won’t command much ownership but has as much upside as anyone on the slate at his price tag. Hield is especially intriguing in lineups where you’re using multiple Spurs as you can build a natural mini-game stack.
Small Forward
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,100 DK/$4,400 FD) – Finney-Smith is another one of the Mavericks players who caught our attention in the restart. The absence of Willie Cauley-Stein leaves the Mavericks a bit more shorthanded at the center position and they gave some looks with Finney-Smith playing center in small-ball lineups. Now they open with the small-ball lineup kings the Houston Rockets. There are paths to low or mid 30s minutes for Finney-Smith making DFS an interesting tournament play in…. DFS.
Isaac Bonga ($3,300 DK/$3,600 FD) – Bonga slid into the starting lineup ahead of Jerome Robinson towards the end of the scrimmage season and even got up to 30 minutes in the finale. Bonga has an interesting multi-faceted skillset but is often a passive offensive player with lower rates. The up-tempo matchup with Phoenix brings some fantasy potential given the likely hefty playing time and the price tag doesn’t require much. We think Bonga might attract some ownership which makes him a viable salary relief target but if the ownership is similar to Lonnie Walker, we’d prefer Walker.
Power Forward
Brandon Clarke ($4,100 DK/$4,600 FD) – I adore Jaren Jackson Jr. but a player who commits 7 fouls/36 minutes is one that has a low floor. He’s going to come with ownership today because he’s a great play as an underpriced option in a good matchup. If he fails, it’s likely coming at the hands of foul trouble. If he’s in foul trouble, Brandon Clarke is playing a lot more. Clarke is a prolific point per minute producer in his own right (1.11 fp/min) and will come with 1/10th the ownership of his teammate.
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($8,500 DK/$8,300 FD) – Vucevic is one of these guys that will come with low ownership simply because he doesn’t fit builds. There is some concern with Orlando playing a deeper rotation that his minutes upside could be capped but the matchup with Brooklyn is ideal. Jarrett Allen has always struggled slowing down opposing centers and the backup options are all well undersized.
Thomas Bryant ($4,600 DK/$5,300 FD) and Mo Wagner ($4,300 DK/$3,700 FD) – Bryant played 26 minutes in the scrimmage finale which was an intriguing sign for his upside. Perhaps more intriguing was some substitutions that left Mo Wagner with time at the power forward spot. Both Bryant and Mo Wagner are very strong point per minute options and the Phoenix frontcourt without Aron Baynes is defensively challenged. They’re each a bit better on different sites with Bryant the more intriguing DK target and Wagner a bit cheaper on FD but if they can play at all together the minutes ceiling on the two immediately jumps from splitting 48 almost entirely to maybe splitting 55. It’s a meaningful difference for two intriguing point per minute options.
