Last updated: November 13th at 10:04pm ET.
Team Totals: Raiders 29.5, Bengals 19.5
The Raiders’ D/ST is a legitimate Week 11 streamer against soft-tossing rookie Ryan Finley, whose NFL debut elicited few positive takeaways on 5.6 yards per attempt with two turnovers and one touchdown drive versus Baltimore. 7-of-9 defenses to face Cincinnati have logged top-12 fantasy scores, including four top-five results. … Finley remains two-quarterback-league viable based on matchup; six of the last eight signal callers to face Oakland tallied top-15 fantasy outcomes, including five top-six weeks. This game has enough sneaky shootout potential for Finley to offer some semblance of upside against a barely-there Raiders pass rush that ranks bottom ten in sack rate (6%) and bottom four in QB Hit Rate (12.6%). I like that Finley showed a willingness to scramble last week, padding his stats with 22 rushing yards. … As Giovani Bernard avoided this week’s injury report after exiting last Sunday’s loss with what was thought to be a knee sprain, Joe Mixon apparently won’t fall into the full-time bellcow work he might’ve with Bernard out. Mixon handled Week 10 season highs in touches (32) and snaps (75%) against the Ravens but has merely been the lead back in Cincinnati’s RBBC with Gio healthy. The good news is Chargers backs combined to tag the Raiders for 181 total yards and two scores last Thursday night, while Oakland has conceded the league’s seventh-most running back catches (55). The bad news is Mixon remains a risky RB2 play as a multi-score road dog at The Black Hole.
Finley’s Week 10 target distribution: Tyler Boyd 8; Auden Tate 6; Tyler Eifert and Stanley Morgan 4; Mixon 3; Alex Erickson 2; Gio and Drew Sample 1. … By far, Boyd catches the Bengals’ top skill-player matchup at Oakland; slot receivers have rocked the Raiders for 66 grabs on 91 targets (73%), 790 yards (8.7 YPA), and six touchdowns. Boyd ran 80% of his routes in the slot in Finley’s debut, leading the team in Air Yards (65) in addition to targets and receiving (6/62/0) in a far tougher draw against the Ravens. Boyd should also have positive-touchdown regression forthcoming with 38 targets but no scores since Week 5. … Tate came in second in targets and Air Yards (61) in Finley’s first start, and his matchup is ripe against a Raiders defense permitting the NFL’s third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Assuming A.J. Green (ankle) remains shelved, Tate is a sneaky-upside WR3/flex start with Oakland playing musical chairs in its backend. SS Karl Joseph (foot) is out for the season, slot CB Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) is week to week, and CB Gareon Conley was traded before the deadline. The Raiders were forced to sign burnable S D.J. Swearinger off the street this week. Promisingly, Tate checked in as Week 11’s No. 4 buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Model. … Eifert made an impressive back-shoulder play on last week’s second-quarter touchdown, but the Bengals significantly scaled back his usage. Eifert’s 12 routes run tied for his season low, and he played just 32% of the snaps. Eifert would be a very low-floor streamer. … Week 10 routes run among Bengals pass catchers: Boyd 35; Tate 33; Erickson 18; Morgan 16; Eifert 12; C.J. Uzomah 8; Sample 2. There is no ancillary fantasy value to be mined from this corps.
Winners of four of their last six with an increasingly defined offensive identity, the power-game Raiders should smash the cross-country-traveling Bengals on the ground. Jon Gruden’s club is more rested than most with an early-season bye under its belt and a mini-bye following last Thursday night’s win over the Chargers. As a two-score home-favorite workhorse back, this is a Josh Jacobs destruction spot facing a Cincinnati defense enemy backs have pounded for 4.79 yards per carry, 29.2 touches per game, and 12 all-purpose TDs. Jacobs and the Raiders’ D/ST correlate especially well for DFS-tournament purposes. … If Derek Carr is ever going to deliver a difference-making fantasy result, this would be the spot facing a road-tripping Cincy team that’s surrendered top-13 quarterback finishes in seven of its last eight games while showing zero pass-rush capability with league lows in sacks (10) and QB hits (30). In DFS, the Raiders warrant team-stack discussion featuring Jacobs, Carr, Darren Waller, and Oakland’s D/ST.
Carr’s 2019 target distribution: Darren Waller 64; Hunter Renfrow 42; Tyrell Williams 39; Jalen Richard 21; Jacobs 20; Foster Moreau 18; DeAndre Washington 13; Derek Carrier 10; Zay Jones 9; Trevor Davis 8. … Held to consecutive receiving lines of 2/11/1 > 2/52/0 > 3/40/0 with defenses selling out to stop him, Waller catches a premium Week 11 bounce-back spot. Ill equipped to handle Waller’s athleticism via the league’s worst linebacker corps, the Bengals have allowed 38 completions on 50 tight end targets (76%) for 509 yards (10.2 YPA) and three TDs. Waller deserves to be among this week’s highest-owned DFS tight ends. … Renfrow has managed target counts of 4 > 7 > 5 over his last three games, playing an expanded role since early in the season but still settling in as a PPR-specific WR4. His matchup is particularly attractive this week, however; per Sports Info Solutions, Cincinnati has given up a 119.5 passer rating on slot targets versus 80.3 to receivers lined up outside. Renfrow plays 98% of his snaps in the slot. … This game sets up well for top vertical threat Williams; Cincinnati allows a league-high 9.0 yards per pass attempt and has surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most 20-plus-yard completions (40) despite facing the league’s third-fewest pass attempts per game (29.2). Williams’ to-date touchdown dependency notwithstanding, he’s an upside WR2 versus Cincy. … This is how routes run were allotted among Raiders pass catchers in Week 10: Williams 30; Jones 29; Waller 28; Renfrow 23; Moreau 7; Carrier 5; Marcell Ateman 3. Jones has 58 scoreless yards to show for his nine targets with the Raiders.
Score Prediction: Raiders 28, Bengals 20