Last updated: January 9th at 5:40pm ET
Team Totals: Packers 25.5, Seahawks 21.5
The Packers host Seattle with significant advantages up front, where DC Mike Pettine’s aggressive defense ranks top 12 in both sack rate (7%) and QB Hit Rate (16.2%) and now faces a Seahawks offensive line missing LG Mike Iupati (neck), C Justin Britt (ACL), and quite possibly All-Pro LT Duane Brown, who had his meniscus “trimmed” on December 27 and hasn’t played since Week 15. Only five NFL defenses yield fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than Green Bay, and only three permit fewer QB rushing yards. The Packers’ D/ST is a green-light Week 19 play. … Russell Wilson’s independent DFS-tournament viability can never be dismissed, of course, especially with his dynamic wideout duo playing at such high late-season levels, Seattle’s running game in an unreliable state of transition, and Green Bay’s offense capable of having its way with the Seahawks’ vulnerable defense, which would force Wilson to retaliate.
Maniacal gum chewer-slash-devoted fourth-and-short-punt lover Pete Carroll promised this week to escalate street signee Marshawn Lynch’s playoff usage following Lynch’s BeastModian Wild Card Round touchdown run and Travis Homer’s 17 scoreless yards on 12 touches with a fumble mixed in. While Lynch likely still lacks stamina to endure anything resembling a full workload – his snap rates are 31% and 28% with touch counts of 12 and 8 through two appearances – Lynch remains one of the best touchdown bets on this week’s running back slate and should be ready to begin flirting with 15 touches. Lynch’s matchup is also pristine; enemy backs roughed up Green Bay for a 87/405/2 (4.66 YPC) rushing line over its last four games, while the Packers permitted the NFL’s seventh-most running back rushing yards on the year. “Very limited” in practice all week, Packers top DL Kenny Clark (back) appears likely to play far short of 100%. At very least, Lynch looks like a better straight-up play than Homer in DFS.
Wilson’s Weeks 13-17 target distribution: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf 39; Jacob Hollister 35; David Moore 14; Malik Turner 9; Jaron Brown 5. … Green Bay allowed the NFL’s tenth-most receptions of 20-plus yards (56) and second-most 40-plus-yard completions (15) in 2019, while Lockett and Metcalf were both top 15 in 20-plus-yard downfield targets. Seattle’s injury-depleted backfield should also revise OC Brian Schottenheimer’s normally run-first approach; in last week’s closely-fought contest at Philly, the Seahawks dialed up 31 Wilson dropbacks versus just 17 running back runs, and Lockett and Metcalf each cleared eight targets. Lockett and Metcalf are both high-ceiling DFS plays who check boxes for individual talent, opportunity, and matchup in an environment where Seattle is likelier than usual to lean on its passing attack. … Hollister will go overlooked on a tight end-rich slate that includes Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews. Yet Hollister lost no snaps (88%) in Luke Willson’s Wild Card Round return, and Green Bay surrendered 60-plus yards to six different tight ends over its last ten games, including George Kittle (6/129/1), Darren Waller (7/126/2), Greg Olsen (8/98/0), Hunter Henry (7/84/0), Kaden Smith (6/70/0), and Travis Kelce (4/63/1). All of this makes Hollister a contrarian DFS-tournament play. … Moore ran a robust 29 pass routes on 68% of last week’s offensive snaps, but his playing time is now threatened by Turner’s (concussion) potential return. For the second straight week, Moore will be one of the playoffs’ top low-cost punts should Turner sit but tough to play at all if Turner gets cleared.
Pete Carroll this week called Lambeau Field the NFL’s toughest place to play, and many numbers bear that out as Aaron Rodgers has maintained positive career home-game splits. Especially pronounced this season, Rodgers’ yards per pass attempt sky from 6.12 on the road to 8.0 in Green Bay with a passer-rating improvement of 89.6 in away games versus 101.6 at Lambeau. Rodgers’ pocket should be squeaky clean behind one of the NFL’s premier offensive lines at home facing one of the league’s weakest pass rushes, while Rodgers boasted a 20:3 TD-to-INT ratio and 69.1% completion rate when kept clean in 2019. Whereas Carroll’s defense finished the regular season bottom three in sack rate (4.5%) and dead last in QB Hit Rate (11.3%), Rodgers absorbed just 12 sacks in eight home games. In a contest with back-and-forth potential and Green Bay’s scoring projection elevated, Packers team stacks are firmly in Week 19 DFS-tournament play involving Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and a few notable others.
This is an eruption spot for Aaron Jones, who leads the NFL in all-purpose TDs (19) and catches a Seattle defense enemy backs lit up for the league’s second-most rushing scores (18) in 2019. Jones has scored 19 touchdowns in 19 career home games (1.0 average) versus 13 TDs in 21 career games on the road (0.62). Seattle has coughed up over 100 rushing yards in five straight weeks; enemy backs during that span touched up Carroll’s unit for a combined 112/534/8 (4.77 YPC) rushing line. I like Jones’ chances of outscoring Derrick Henry as a Week 19 DFS play and challenging Dalvin Cook as this week’s overall RB1. … Jamaal Williams injured his shoulder in Week 16, missed Week 17, rested in Week 18, and should be near-all systems go against the Seahawks. Williams managed Weeks 14-16 touch counts of 7 > 9 > 8 compared to Jones’ 22 > 13 > 25. Nevertheless, Williams’ improved health and plus draw give him some contrarian DFS-tournament appeal on Week 19’s small slate.
Rodgers’ Weeks 10-17 target distribution: Adams 80; Allen Lazard 33; Jones and Jimmy Graham 23; Geronimo Allison 21; Williams 17; Marquez Valdes-Scantling 15; Robert Tonyan 9; Jake Kumerow 6. … Matchups continue to not matter for Adams, who’s drawn double-digit targets in eight of his last nine games and logged 100-plus yards in six of his last seven. Adams is always a high-floor WR1 with slate-breaking upside in Rodgers stacks. … Lazard emerged as Green Bay’s locked-in No. 2 wideout over the last three games on playing-time clips of 78% > 75% > 76% and corresponding target counts of 3 > 9 > 8. Although his fantasy results are scattered, Lazard combines plus size (6’3/225) with plus opportunity as Rodgers’ No. 3 pass option and a winnable matchup at reasonable DFS costs, rendering Lazard a viable play. … This is a revenge game for Graham, who established a 12-week high in targets (7), seven-week high in snaps (55%), and 12-week high in routes run (40) in Green Bay’s Week 17 win over Detroit. Seattle gave up the NFL’s second-most fantasy points to tight ends, including stat lines of 7/116/0 (Tyler Higbee), 12/91/1 (Zach Ertz), 7/86/0 (George Kittle), 7/73/0 and 7/32/0 (Dallas Goedert), and 4/50/1 (Kyle Rudolph) in the second half of the year. Graham’s DFS price is cheap, his matchup is favorable, and his ownership should be minimal. … Beyond Adams, Jones, Lazard, and perhaps Graham, none of Green Bay’s ancillary weapons see consistent enough usage for anything beyond Hail Mary DFS treatment.
Score Prediction: Packers 24, Seahawks 23