Last updated: November 13th at 5:01pm ET.
Team Totals: Ravens 27, Texans 23
Bill O’Brien’s Texans return from their bye with a 6-3 record but shortchanged by defensive injuries that may raise their own scoring expectation. Top-five MVP candidate Deshaun Watson has been all but unfazed by environmental limitations, registering top-12 fantasy outcomes in 6-of-9 starts with five top-four results. Week 11 represents Watson’s hardest to-date matchup at Baltimore, whose secondary has reached near-full strength after yielding just one top-12 QB1 score in its initial nine games. I’m standing by Watson as a season-long play but questioning his DFS ceiling. … O’Brien sticking with Carlos Hyde amid four fumbles (two lost) over Houston’s last five games shows an unflinching commitment most NFL backs rarely receive. Hyde is catch-less in 6-of-9 games with one target or fewer in 8-of-9. Sunday’s matchup is favorable, though; badly deficient at inside linebacker, Ravens DC Wink Martindale’s unit coughed up 137/625/7 (4.56 YPC) rushing to enemy backs over its last seven games. As usual, Hyde is a touchdown-driven RB2/flex option whose floor is always lowered by his near-nonexistent receiving role. He’s especially risky this week as a four-point road underdog. … Even as Duke Johnson has severely outgained Hyde 6.8 to 4.7 on a per-touch basis, O’Brien has shown no inclination toward enhancing Johnson’s role. Averaging just 7.9 touches over Houston’s last eight games, Johnson is a PPR-specific flex option facing a Ravens defense allowing the NFL’s third-fewest running back catches per game (4.0).
Watson’s Weeks 8-9 target distribution: DeAndre Hopkins 24; Johnson 10; Kenny Stills and Darren Fells 9; Jordan Akins 8; DeAndre Carter 4; Hyde 1. … Facing Baltimore’s loaded secondary comprised of Earl Thomas, Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Brandon Carr will always be daunting for enemy wideouts, leaving us to bank on Hopkins’ talent and voluminous role. On pace for a career-high 121 receptions, Hopkins is averaging 12.0 targets over his last four games. … Will Fuller (hamstring) is tentatively due back after Houston’s bye, but Fuller’s persistent health issues and Sunday’s bad matchup render him a Hail Mary WR3 investment at best. … Fuller’s return would move Stills back into the slot, where he’s played his best football as a Texan. Sans Fuller, Stills managed a combined 74 scoreless yards on nine targets in Weeks 8-9. While neither Texans ancillary receiver offers a safe floor, I would play Stills over Fuller straight up in Week 11. … Tied with Hopkins for the team lead in red-zone targets (9) and targets inside the ten-yard line (4), Fells has earned low-end TE1 treatment with snap rates of 84% or higher in three of Houston’s last four games and six end-zone trips on the year. Baltimore’s cornerback strength may encourage Watson to lean especially heavily on Fells this week. … Akins has cleared 40 yards in 1-of-9 games. … Carter played ahead of Keke Coutee in the slot with Fuller sidelined but never saw enough usage for fantasy relevance. Stills should take over that interior role going forward.
No. 1 fantasy quarterback Lamar Jackson enters yet another eruption spot back home after ethering Cincinnati for last week’s QB1 result, good for Jackson’s eighth top-ten finish in nine starts and seventh top-six score. Missing J.J. Watt (torn pec) up front and flammable on the backend, Houston has yielded top-12 outcomes to 7-of-9 quarterbacks faced. The Texans lack speed at defensive back to handle Marquise Brown and coverage linebackers to contain Mark Andrews. As is often true, Jackson is Week 11’s top quarterback play. … As the Ravens needed a year-low 46 offensive plays to manhandle the hapless Bengals, Mark Ingram managed a season-low nine touches in last week’s 49-13 blowout win. Ingram did score his eighth TD in nine games and remains an every-week RB2 in season-long leagues despite continued touchdown dependency. As Ingram’s main fantasy flaw has been his passing-game near-nonexistence, it’s notable Houston has surrendered the NFL’s most catches (69) and receiving yards (571) to running backs and could get Ingram going a bit as a receiver here.
Jackson’s post-bye target distribution: Mark Andrews 11; Nick Boyle 9; Marquise Brown 8; Willie Snead 5; Hayden Hurst 4; Ingram 3; Justice Hill 1. … Even as Andrews ran fewer than 20 routes for the third game in a row, he overcame by drawing targets on 8-of-17 pass patterns and turned them into 6/53/2 receiving against a Bengals linebacker unit that couldn’t come close to covering him. Texans inside linebackers have been cooked for 348 yards on 42 targets (8.3 YPA). Andrews remains boom-busty as a rotational tight end playing under 50% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps, but only a small handful of tight ends can match Andrews’ weekly upside. He’s always an excellent DFS-stack partner with Jackson. … Recent box scores suggest Boyle has taken on a bigger passing-game role of late, but his route totals haven’t changed, and Boyle hasn’t exceeded five targets in a 2019 game. Even in a plus draw, Boyle is a weak tight end streamer. … Like Andrews, Brown made the most of his limited Week 10 opportunity, parlaying just ten routes run on 39% of the snaps into a perfect 4/80/1 receiving line on four targets. The Texans’ secondary has struggled to defend speed-oriented wideouts for years, highlighted this year by Ted Ginn (7/101/0), Tyrell Williams (3/91/1), Calvin Ridley (5/88/1), Tyreek Hill (5/80/2), T.Y. Hilton (6/74/1), Chris Conley (4/73/0), and D.J. Chark (7/55/1). Brown is an upside WR2 play versus Houston.
Score Prediction: Ravens 35, Texans 24