Jerry Jones raved about Jonathon Brooks on Friday, but he didn’t end up making it to Dallas’ pick, as Carolina traded up to draft him 46th overall. Brooks is coming off a torn ACL and is questionable for Week 1, but that wasn’t enough to scare evaluators off from rating him as the RB1 in this class. Let’s break down the fantasy outlook for the Carolina backfield.
JONATHON BROOKS
Projection: 204.0 carries for 816.3 yards and 4.9 TDs. 28.5 catches on 37.4 targets for 224.6 yards and 0.8 TDs.
- Brooks played sparingly during his first two seasons in Austin. That would normally be a red flag, except he was playing behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. As a junior, Brooks was sparklingly efficient with 6.1 yards per carry before tearing his ACL. Recent reports are bullish on his recovery, but it’s still far from a sure thing that he’s ready for Week 1, and he could be eased in slowly during his rookie campaign. Scouts view him as the best running back in the draft though, so he could be a fantasy league-winner down the stretch once he gets his legs under him.
- Brooks should have no problems surpassing Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders once he’s fully healthy. Both were ineffective last year (though Barry Sanders might not have been effective in the 2023 Panthers offense). Still, questions remain about how lucrative the clear-cut starter in Carolina is worth. The Panthers averaged a league-worst 13.9 points per game and return most of their offense, although the hiring of Dave Canales is a reason for hope. Still, Brooks likely struggles to be efficient unless Bryce Young takes a big step forward.
- Rachaad White got a truly massive workload, especially as a pass-catcher, under Canales last year, but White is also one of the league’s premier receiving backs and it’s hard to tell how much of his target volume was a byproduct of Caneles vs. his individual talent. At the very least, it’s bullish for Brooks that we have seen Canales lean so hard on a single RB, and Brooks is highly talented.
- We’re projecting Brooks for ~15 games right now, but that could change as we adjust projections in the coming days/weeks/months.
CHUBA HUBBARD AND MILES SANDERS
- The Panthers traded up specifically to get Brooks, and Round 2 draft capital for a RB is a significant investment in this day and age. There’s zero reason to rush Brooks back considering the Panthers’ low expectations in 2024, so Hubbard/Sanders could open the year as co-starters, but this will be Brooks’ job once he’s healthy. In a bad offense with no clear RB2 between Hubbard and Sanders (likely slight tilt toward Hubbard), neither Panthers backup RB is overly interesting.
