The NFL’s QB carousel kept turning on Monday afternoon with the Jets agreeing to a two-year, $40 million deal with Justin Fields. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers remain the two dominoes yet to fall, but New York has their guy (at least for the short term) in Fields. What are the fantasy implications of this signing? Let’s dig in.
JUSTIN FIELDS
- Fields’ rushing ability makes him a legitimate fantasy option as long as he remains the starter. From Weeks 1-6 of last season with Pittsburgh, Fields ranked seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game at 19.1. He has 11 top-five finishes in his previous 24 starts and averages 54.9 rushing yards per game in 44 career starts. A $20 million APY contract doesn’t preclude the Jets from adding another quarterback, and it hardly guarantees that Fields starts all 17 games, but it likely means he’s starting in Week 1. And that means he’s a viable fantasy starter in Week 1 simply because he’s so prolific with his legs.
JETS PASS CATCHERS
- This is simply brutal news for Garrett Wilson. We knew Wilson, as always, would have below-average QB efficiency, but Fields kills pass volume in a way basically no other QB does. He has averaged 25.1 pass attempts per game in 44 career starts. His career sack rate is 10.5%, and his career scramble rate is 12.1%. In other words, more than one-fifth of his dropbacks don’t actually result in a pass attempt. With Davante Adams gone, Wilson can flirt with a 30% target share, but even a monster target share can’t produce a top-five fantasy WR season if NYJ only throws the ball ~25-27 times per game. Fields has also only averaged 7.0 yards per attempt on his career, so it’s not like he’s been super efficient on what little pass volume he does generate. Wilson will get a massive share of the Jets’ pass attempts, but this is an awful development for Wilson’s outlook.
- Fields will help Breece Hall‘s rushing efficiency since he’s such a prolific rusher himself, but the target volume that has helped Breece reach ceiling outcomes in the past (especially 2023) likely won’t be there. Fields has thrown to RBs at a high clip before (22.4% in Weeks 1-6 with PIT last year, 22.2% seasonal share with the Bears in 2023), contrary to the narrative that running QBs don’t throw to their backs. But as is the case with Wilson, the pass volume simply won’t be there as long as Fields remains the starter. It’s more crushing for Wilson than Hall because Fields will help Hall’s rushing efficiency and has been happy to check it down in past seasons, but it’s certainly a negative compared to almost any other option.
- We’ll see what the Jets’ depth chart looks like beyond those two. Xavier Gipson is currently the WR2 in New York (assuming Allen Lazard is gone), and Tyler Conklin is a UFA. Jeremy Ruckert, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis are back, and this hurts them much like it does Wilson/Hall, but they aren’t in line for major volume at this point anyway.
STEELERS PASS CATCHERS
- Things seemed to be trending this way over the past 24 hours, but DK Metcalf and George Pickens can breathe a sigh of relief (more on the Metcalf trade here). We don’t know who will be QB yet for Pittsburgh — at this point, Aaron Rodgers seems most likely — but Fields is a worst-case scenario for pass catchers (despite being a strong fantasy option himself) for the pass-volume reasons mentioned above.
