Playoff fantasy football challenges us to think beyond player performance. In order to be successful, we need to also correctly factor in how many games a player will appear in. So while we’re of course thinking about injuries, depth chart changes, matchups and likeliest gameplans — we also need to think about who will win.

The Top-50 Overall rankings you’ll find below answer a simple question: Who will score the most fantasy points this playoff season? This is for a half-PPR format, but frankly there would be minimal changes for full-PPR or non-PPR.

For Positional Tiers and Player Notes, click here.

In order to develop these rankings, we projected how many games each team would play. We did this using betting market data and slightly adjusted for our opinions. Here are our projections:

 

EXPECTED GAMES PLAYED
RAVENS: 2.33
SAINTS: 2.23
49ERS: 2.17
PATRIOTS: 1.97
CHIEFS: 1.93
SEAHAWKS: 1.81
PACKERS: 1.72
TEXANS: 1.72
EAGLES: 1.71
BILLS: 1.54
TITANS: 1.51
VIKINGS: 1.36

1. Lamar Jackson QB1
2. Michael Thomas WR1
3. Alvin Kamara RB1
4. George Kittle TE1
5. Travis Kelce TE2
6. Tyreek Hill WR2
7. Drew Brees QB2
8. Davante Adams WR3
9. Patrick Mahomes QB3
10. Damien Williams RB2
11. Mark Ingram RB3
12. Aaron Jones RB4
13. Mark Andrews TE3
14. DeAndre Hopkins WR4
15. Julian Edelman WR5
16. Russell Wilson QB4
17. Raheem Mostert RB5
18. Derrick Henry RB6
19. Tyler Lockett WR6
20. Jared Cook TE4
21. Deebo Samuel WR7
22. Emmanuel Sanders WR8
23. Dalvin Cook RB7
23. DK Metcalf WR9
25. Dallas Goedert TE5
26. Zach Ertz* TE6
27. Sony Michel RB8
28. Devin Singletary RB9
29. AJ Brown WR10
30. John Brown WR11
31. James White RB10
32. Marquise Brown WR12
33. Deshaun Watson QB5
34. Jimmy Garoppolo QB6
35. Stefon Diggs WR13
36. Miles Sanders RB11
37. Aaron Rodgers QB7
38. Adam Thielen WR14
39. Latavius Murray RB12
40. Travis Homer RB13
41. Greg Ward WR15
42. Tom Brady QB8
43. Carson Wentz QB9
44. Sammy Watkins WR16
45. Josh Allen QB10
46. Boston Scott RB14
47. Gus Edwards RB15
48. Cole Beasley WR17
49. Carlos Hyde RB16
50. Allen Lazard WR18

*Zach Ertz is looking very iffy this weekend, his position here reflects where we’d have him if he plays. He’s behind Goedert due to likely being limited if he plays, with significant re-injury risk. He would move out of the top 50 if he’s out for the Wild Card Round and only be draftable very late in relatively deep drafts.