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The Lakers will finally play in a Game 6 in these playoffs, and the pressure is on now that the Heat have shown their formula can work. Although, both coaches seem to be sold on their game plans, and the refs played a pretty big factor for the Heat, especially in the second half. There were three plays where the Heat essentially got a whopping 14 points on three possessions because of a flagrant foul on Jimmy to get them six points on one trip while Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder each had 4-point plays. The foul on Jimmy was deserved, but some later fouls on Jimmy were a bit questionable. This should be another epic game tonight.

 

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5), 7:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 105, Lakers 110
Injury News: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful, Gabe Vincent (knee) is questionable, Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Danny Green (finger) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard

Heat Rotation Notes: Jimmy Butler played over 47 minutes, Kendrick Nunn had a 16-minute stint in the first half and cut into Herro a bit in the second half, Spo went with a seven-man rotation.

Lakers Rotation Notes: Markieff Morris played the final 13, Caruso was going to close until he got pulled for Danny Green in the final moments (whoops), KCP continues to close, Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo only had six second-half minutes each.

Spo Quotes: On the last play, Spo said the Heat needed to bring three defenders on LeBron. Spo said Jimmy is “the definition of a two-way player.” On Duncan, he said he is “going to continue to work his routes” with force and has even been able to make them when he doesn’t break through. He said Duncan, Herro and Nunn are “like sticks of dynamite” on getting hot. Spo said Iguodala can look like he’s “in three places at once and that’s part of his genius.”

Vogel Quotes: He said two bad calls hurt his team late in the game to put Jimmy on the line. He said multiple times he expects his team to bounce back, and he didn’t sound concerned about how his team played. Vogel said Danny Green got a great look, but the Lakers “have to live with the results.” Vogel said both teams “are throwing haymakers” in this series.

 

Lakers Notes

*LeBron looked like he was going to have his moment to get a title and he put his imprint on Game 5 more than any game of the postseason. His 42 minutes and 40 points were both postseason highs and his 84.6 TS% was his third highest of the postseason and by far the highest if you’re not counting the series against the Blazers’ “defense” (66.6 TS% in Game 5 of the Nuggets series). Tracking wise, he had 25 potential assists, so his teammates really short-changed him with only seven assists. He was driving a bit more, but as mentioned in the last edition it’s been LeBron’s lights-out shooting. He had a 120.0 eFG% on his five jumpers to boost his postseason eFG% on jumpers to a ludicrous 75.0. LeBron also didn’t take a single mid-range shot in Game 5. He’s really figuring it out and expect him to be even more aggressive after Danny Green’s gaffe.

*On his heel, AD said Iggy stepped on it, but said “I’ll be fine on Sunday.” Vogel said AD has been “battling through” his injury and was struggling to move at times. The Lakers started listing him with a probable tag because of a right heel contusion since Game 1, but they were listing him with a left ankle injury during the Denver series. He should be all good. Moving to his play, the Jimmy defense looks to have really upped his shot blocking with seven in the last two games after just three combined in the first three games. The Heat put Bam on him more often and that resulted in AD only getting 44.4% of his makes off an assist for his lowest since Game 5 vs. Houston. Bam was on AD for 32.7% of AD’s offensive time, and on the series Bam has done a decent job on AD at 18 points on a 57.1 TS%. It’s not quite the smash spot it’s been for AD, but he’s still in a good spot.

*Oh, Danny Green. The missed three off a LeBron pass is nothing new with Green making just 11-of-45 (24.4%) treys off LeBron passes in the playoffs. Green is at 39.7% on his other threes, so are his knees buckling under the pressure? It’s really hard to make a case for Green to get more playing time here despite how Vogel hasn’t expressed any concern. He’s still almost a near lock to start, but he might have his minutes dialed back late in the game.

*On the rest of the guards, we can pretty much pencil in KCP for 30 minutes and he might even get a tad more. On the bench, it was bad. They were a combined 3-of-15 on uncontested shots, including Rondo and Kuzma putting up 1-of-5s each. We have enough data now to at least get an idea of what works for the Lakers, and we know Vogel does care about net rating as much as almost any coach in the league. The worst lineup with double-digit minute volume the Lakers have used by far has been LeBron, Green, Caruso, Kuzma and Morris at a -39.8 net rating in 13 minutes. That lineup can definitely be avoided to start the second. Here are the three best ones among lineups with 10 minutes in the Finals:

LeBron, Green, Caruso, Morris, AD – +80.0
LeBron, Rondo, KCP, Kuzma, AD – +38.0
LeBron, Rondo, KCP, Kuzma, AD – +24.8

The problem is, obviously, AD is in all of those, and the only other lineup combo with four-plus minutes without AD is LeBron, Rondo, Caruso, Kuzma, Morris at -4.8 in 23 minutes. That might be another concern for Danny Green. On another note, despite Rondo’s poor play, he should have ample opportunity to redeem himself, and we know Vogel trusts him. Caruso might be able to benefit if Green does have a short leash.

*Dwight is probably going to have to start, but he’s probably on a shorter leash with Miami really showing how they can maximize the extra space on the floor, and now that Bam is at least getting more involved in action. That could help Morris’ playing time.

 

Heat Notes

*Jimmy Butler is slander proof until the end of time. He had a whopping 12.9 time of possession in Game 5 to go with 23 potential assists to get him to 18.4 per game in the series (10.2 assists). Jimmy also had to guard LeBron James for 58.5% of LeBron James’ offensive time and had 3.4 miles traveled in the game (averaged 2.8 in previous playoff games), so it’s just a ridiculous workload. It looked like he was feeling it after the game after a couple days off.

 

Going back to Game 3, Jimmy talked about how he recovers. “I actually think I recover quite fast because all I can hear is Spo over and over again telling me how I’m not tired,” Butler said. “That’s literally what he tells me in the middle of the game.”  We knew that AD was going to be on Jimmy again, but he had an answer for him with 15 points on a 66.3 TS% over 53.7% of his offensive time. Butler also had another great quote about how he can beat defenses. “I think whatever you throw at me, it’s not gonna work cuz if I’m open, I’m gonna shoot it. If I’m not, I’m gonna get it to Duncan or Tyler or K-Nunn or Bam or Jae, and they’re gonna make the shot,” he said. We’ve known the opportunity for Jimmy to smash will be there yet again, and expect the Lakers to have a similar game plan when it comes to covering him.

*There’s a reason why Jimmy mentioned Duncan Robinson first on guys to pass to. In the NBA Finals, Duncan is 11-of-22 on 3-pointers off Butler passes. The Heat were really able to get the DHO action going for Duncan with a lot off Jimmy and they were able to get it going again with Bam unlike in Game 4. He was up to 32 frontcourt touches in Game 5, which is up from 23 in all of the playoffs and 25.5 in the previous Finals games. After the Lakers really cut down on Duncan’s uncontested shots in Game 4, he torched them with a 7-of-11 in Game 5. Again, Jimmy and Spo have told us point blank that they are going to get Duncan shots. What a great job by the Heat to get Duncan to where he is, and he hasn’t even really been a major liability on D either.

*The Lakers continue to make it really tough on Bam. He’s not crushing in PNR or DHO action like he was in the Boston series, and he’s not making his shots at the rim nearly as much at just 11-of-18 (61.1%) in his three games so far. That’s way down from the 75.8% he made in the Boston series and 71.4% in the Bucks series. He’s also down to just 5.0 potential assists in this series, which is less than half his 11.8 in the Boston series and 10.2 in the Bucks series. He might be a little banged up, but he’s not set up like he has been.

*Kendrick Nunn had his best game of the NBA Finals in Game 5. After going 1-of-7 on uncontested shots in Game 4, he went 4-of-7 for a little Goran Dragic impression. Nunn’s strong play did cut into Herro a bit, but Herro should be able to bounce back for minutes in the mid 30s.

*As Spo mentioned, Iguodala is huge for the defensive coverages. He won’t be doing much on offense, but overall Spo sounded really pleased with how his rotation worked out. Don’t forget, he said after Game 4 he doesn’t really care about rest anymore, so expect another tight rotation.

Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Markieff Morris
Matchup Hurts: Dwight Howard, Kyle Kuzma, Danny Green