No Warriors this time, but instead we get two teams who finished 10th in their conferences last season. These two teams got here in 15 games each and both teams were able to stick with their game plans for the vast majority of their series until coach Frank Vogel went to Dwight Howard over JaVale McGee. Coach Erik Spoelstra didn’t need to change his lineup to start games, but he did make a couple different subs in first halves and had a mixture of guys close next to Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro for the vast majority of games. It should be a great series with two teams using such different approaches on how they create offense and how they try to defend key components of an opponent’s offense.
If you missed it, check out the pod with Drew Dinkmeyer, Andrew Wiggins and me. This edition is just loaded with stats, so the pod will be a good way to explain some of it. We’re also going to do another one on Thursday to go over what we learned today.
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 106.5 , Lakers 111
Season Series: 2-0 Lakers (played in November and December)
Key Players Missing in Season Series: Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder (two games missed because of trade), Goran Dragic (1), Kyle Kuzma (1), Rajon Rondo (1)
Playoff Defensive Rating: Heat 7th, Lakers 5th
Season Defensive Rating: Heat 12th, Lakers 3rd
Playoff Offensive Rating: Heat 4th, Lakers 2nd
Season Offensive Rating: Heat 7th, Lakers 11th
Playoff Pace: Heat 12th, Lakers 9th
Season Pace: Heat 27th, Lakers 11th
Playoff Rebounding Percentage: Heat 5th, Lakers 2nd
Season Rebounding Percentage: Heat 5th, Lakers 6th
Playoff Free Throws Attempted: Heat 2nd (27.6), Lakers 4th (25.8)
Season Free Throws Attempted: Heat 4th (25.2), Lakers 8th (24.3)
Playoff Free Throws Allowed: Heat 8th (23.8), Lakers 12th (26.1)
Season Free Throws Allowed: Heat 16th (23.6), Lakers 14th (22.9)
Overall Notes
*The Heat have kept each of their opponents under 45 potential assists per game (44.5 for Boston, 40.8 for the Bucks and Pacers), and the Lakers have kept their opponents down with the Nuggets at 42.0, Rockets at 41.6 and Blazers at 37.4 (Blazers last in league in regular season at 38.3). The Lakers (46.5) and Heat (50.7) are the top two in potential assists among teams to get out of the first round. Limiting potential assists will be huge on capping quality shots, and the edge goes to the Heat here.
*Miami has a +42.5 net rating in the clutch in 41 playoff minutes. The Lakers are +3.8 over 17 clutch minutes. Teams have just a 46.4 TS% against the Heat in the playoffs while the Lakers allowed 53.6 TS% in their limited time. Miami also has a 45.5 O board percentage in the clutch, and they get the big edge here as Spo knows what to do late.
*The Heat allow a playoff-low 10.7 wide-open attempts from deep while the Lakers are in the middle of the pack at 15.5, including keeping the Rockets to just 13.6. The Lakers have three guys in the top 11 for eFG% on catch-and-shoot shots among 64 guys with 20-plus attempts. LeBron James at 75.9, KCP at 69.7 and Markieff Morris at 64.1. LeBron is at 52.0% made on his treys (13-of-25). It’s not going to be as easy for the Lakers’ shooters here.
*Miami is running handoff action 10 possessions per game, and the Lakers have been in the middle of the pack at defending that in the playoffs. The Lakers were 10th in the regular season on PPP against it, and their bigger lineups will have a lot of trouble on this. Coach Brad Stevens may have lost sleep over it.
*Miami’s PNR defense has been insanely good in the playoffs at 0.74 PPP for the ball-handlers and 1.05 against the roll man. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been the best team against roll man at 0.86 PPP, but they rank eighth against handlers at 0.91 PPP. The Lakers don’t run it that much in the bottom three for handlers while the Heat are in the top four for possessions per game.
*On points off drives, the Heat allowed 27.0 per game to the Celtics, 23.8 to the Bucks and 27.3 to the Pacers while all three teams shot in the mid-40s on FG% off those drives. The Lakers gave up 28.6 points per game off drives against the Nuggets and 28.8 against the drive-happy Rockets. We know that LeBron is really going to want to test the Heat defense, but he’ll get the most resistance he’s seen so far.
*The Lakers (15.1) and Heat (14.4) lead the playoffs in deflections per game, but the Lakers are the third lowest in loose balls recovered per game in the playoffs at 5.4 — Miami is second at 7.5 (Toronto 8.0). The Lakers are by far the lowest in the playoffs in percentage of loose balls recovered at 37.2% (Magic 15th at 40.7%). Miami loving to pass could create some live-ball turnovers for the Lakers.
*The Lakers allowed 26.0 shots at the rim in the playoffs to rank fifth while the Heat ranked ninth at 23.5. The Lakers take the most shots at the rim at 28.7 per game while also at a playoff-best 70.9%. In the regular season, they were at 69.0% to lead the league while taking the fourth-most attempts at 31.9. Miami takes the fourth fewest in the playoffs and they were 29th in the regular season at 24.9.
*The Lakers are leading the playoffs in points per game off transition at a 23.3 (Nets 21.5, Raptors 20.3). That’s a tick up from their 22.5 in the regular season. Miami hasn’t been great at limiting transition points at 19.0 per game in the playoffs, but they were great in the regular season at a third-best 17.2. As mentioned in the deflections stat, the Lakers continuing to do that could really swing things.
*The Lakers and Heat are the top two teams on points off cuts with L.A. at 12.9 and Miami at 10.5. In the regular season, Miami led the league at 13.5 points while the Lakers weren’t far behind at 12.0 for fourth best on better efficiency at 1.37 (second best, Mavs 1.41).
*When LeBron is on the floor in the playoffs, the Lakers have scored 45.5% of their points in the paint, and just 38.0% when he’s off the floor (basically the same for AD on/off). Putting pressure on Bam when LeBron is out there is huge.
*The Heat are allowing just 21.3 free throws per 48 minutes when Jimmy Butler is on the floor in the playoffs, and 30.1 free throws allowed per 48 when he’s on the bench.
*Bam has talked about how he likes to cover guards, and yes, he should. In the playoffs, guards have just a 35.5 eFG% when matched up against Bam on 69 attempts. Very nice.
Lakers Player Notes
*AD has 59 minutes of time on the floor with Bam Adebayo out there. In that time he has a per-36 line of 25.0 points, 10.4 boards, 4.9 dimes, 1.2 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.4 treys on a 66.6 TS% and a 23.0 usage rate. In 14 minutes when Bam wasn’t out there, AD put up a 46/3/0 line. Via the matchup data, AD had 15 points on 6-of-14 from the field over 34.9 partial possessions while the Lakers were scoring at 1.26 points per partial possession. Meyers Leonard had 20.5 partial possessions on AD, and it did not go well with AD scoring 16 points and the Lakers putting up 2.05 points per partial possession. In the playoffs, AD has actually struggled to score more against forwards at a 42.1 TS% over 325 partial possessions. Vs. centers, he was at a 59.0 TS%, and over the course of the season he’s also done much better against forwards over centers. That makes sense because AD is so quick he can just get around the bigger opponents while smaller players are better at staying in front of him and on PNR action. Bam, of course, is quick enough to guard basically anyone on the planet, and Jae Crowder has proven he can guard a wide variety of forwards of even the highest caliber. AD goes from a cake matchup to a much tougher one. The Heat will also throw a ton of bodies at him with help all over the place, too.
*LeBron James is quite good, and as mentioned above he’s hitting some catch-and-shoot jumpers. As great as Giannis was, it was much easier to game plan against him than LeBron because LeBron can beat defenses in so many different ways. Unlike AD, LeBron punished teams putting smaller guys on him, putting up 194 points on 61.1 TS% against forwards and 132 points on a 64.3 TS% against guards in the playoffs. In the regular season, LeBron scored 539 points on 57.3 TS% on guards and 870 points on 56.1 TS% on forwards (noteworthy that he shot considerably worse at the line on guards matchup data, so gap is a little wider had he shot at the same clip). The Heat will throw a ton of guys at LeBron, but if you wanted to know his performance on Jae, he was at 15 points on 53.6 TS%. We know LeBron is the ultimate zone buster because he analyzes information like a supercomputer. On paper, it’s a really tough matchup because we know Spo is going to try to build a wall to limit LeBron’s attack mode. LeBron has been lighting up the assist category with 8.9 per game in the postseason, and 17.1 potential assists. AD was also in such a great matchup in the Denver series, that LeBron was fine being the second option offensively. This time, his impact on the game will be much bigger.
*KCP is at just 20.0 eFG% on his 25 pullup attempts for the worst in the playoffs among players with that many attempts. Kyle Kuzma (34.0%) and LeBron James (36.9%) are all near the bottom. He also did a fine job on defense on several players, and he’ll likely be looking at some time on Goran Dragic. After earning some closing minutes in the Denver series, it’s going to be a little tougher here. KCP should still get minutes in the 20s. Kuzma has not played well either, and he might fall behind Markieff Morris if the Heat offense starts to click, especially on the perimeter.
*Rajon Rondo had some big games in the Houston series and made plays late in the Denver series. He’s not a strong shooter, so that aspect does make him a bit of a liability against the Heat defense. We know that Rondo should soak up ball-handling responsibilities when LeBron James is on the floor. LeBron and AD are much better without Rondo than with him based on net rating (+6.2 with, +18.7 without), but AD and Rondo are also better without LeBron than with him (+6.2 with, +7.4 without). Rondo has also impacted how the Lakers get shots with the team getting assisted buckets on 69.3% of makes with him on the floor in the playoffs, which is way up from the 58.3% without him.
*Finals Danny Green? He wasn’t that great last year at a 53.7 TS% and a 13.1 usage rate, but the two previous ones he was at 68.1 TS% and an 18.6 usage rate in 2014 and a 15.6 usage rate and 64.9 TS% in 2013. He’s been really inefficient in the playoffs at a paltry 48.1 TS% on his 14.7 usage rate. He’s been horrible on twos at 34.1% and decent on treys at 36.4% while not being too good on catch-and-shoot shots. He does have that minor finger issue, too. Green hasn’t topped 28 minutes in any of his previous nine games, including 20 and 21 in two of the last three. It’s tough to buy the Finals narrative here, especially with KCP, Rondo and the bigs deserving more playing time.
*Dwight Howard had a huge impact in the Denver series because of how he was able to limit Nikola Jokic. While Bam is a focal point to the offense like Jokic is, he attacks in such a different way with DHO action, hitting cutters and rolling to the basket, and being a better diver on PNR action. It’s going to be a lot tougher for Dwight to switch on the high-ball action with Bam, and it’s possible Vogel can get away from him down the line in this series. Still, he’s played well enough to at least get a shot to see if the Lakers can still limit the Heat’s perimeter shooting enough to get a win. Meanwhile, it might be tougher for JaVale McGee to get a shot.
Heat Player Notes
*Bam really took his game to another level in the Boston series, averaging 21.8 points, 11.0 boards, 5.2 dimes, 1.7 steals and 1.0 blocks on a 66.3 TS% and a 21.6 usage rate. Spo was feeding him touches with 52.7 frontcourt touches per game in that series with 10.7 paint touches, 12.0 elbows and 4.8 postups. In the regular season, Bam was at 39.7 frontcourt touches, 7.8 elbow touches, 7.9 paint touches and 3.2 postups per game. He figures to duplicate his role against a bigger frontcourt to cause more help from the outside to open up shooters. One thing that will change, is that Bam will likely see bigger guys covering him. Bam hasn’t been quite as efficient against bigger players, scoring 0.27 points per partial possession against centers compared to 0.40 when guarded by forwards. The Heat offense is also more efficient when opponents put a center on Bam. Still, Bam just has so many ways to beat the Lakers defense. Of course, if I’m Frank Vogel, I’m doing all I can to attack Bam early to try to put him in foul trouble.
*Jimmy Butler wasn’t heavily used in the Boston series, but he was still aggressive. Butler’s 9.3 points per game against Boston is the highest in the playoffs, and he’s still been top five in the playoffs in free-throw attempts per game despite going against teams who don’t foul a bunch. The Lakers have been vulnerable at times to some perimeter guys in these playoffs, and again this Lakers matchup isn’t as tough on Jimmy after going against Boston and Milwaukee. If Bam does get a tougher matchup here, Jimmy will need to step up.
*Goran Dragic has really played well. He has always been able to find uncontested shots in most of the games in the last two series. Dragic’s ability to play on and off ball will be huge, especially to space the floor when the Lakers are big. He also showed he can drive when the Heat need him to, which will be huge to open up perimeter shooters. He’ll also find time without Jimmy out there to be more ball-dominant. Plus, unlike most of his fellow offensive weapons on the Heat, he won’t have nearly as much defensive responsibility.
*Duncan Robinson played much better on the defensive end even when teams were trying to go after him. We know the Lakers will do their best to get Duncan switched on to LeBron, but we also know Miami will be able to send plenty of help with traps, hedging and dropping coverage to make it tougher on LeBron. Duncan got to 35.5 minutes per game in the final two games of the Boston series, and Spo has clearly shown more trust in him. Even when Boston had so many guys they wanted to put on Robinson, per the matchup data he guarded Marcus Smart the most, then Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker. It’ll be a lot tougher for Robinson to get put in a bad spot, so the minutes should be there.
*Jae Crowder is going to be a huge factor on defense, and he’ll have to guard both LeBron and AD a whole lot. Crowder is a key part of the offense, as well, with a team-high 3.7 wide-open attempts from deep in the playoffs, making 41.1 percent of them. That’s close to half of his 8.1 attempts from deep overall, and 7.3 of those are catch and shoot. He might have to battle with Andre Iguodala a bit for closing minutes, but Jae’s added size should give him the edge most nights. Iggy’s impact at the top of the 2-3 zone was arguably his biggest plus in the Celtics series. Miami certainly won’t be going 2-3 against LeBron as much, so Iggy may not get the closing minutes as much.
*Spo has constantly talked up Tyler Herro’s skill set. Much like Dragic, Herro can beat defenses so many ways, and that’s going to have to happen here. He’s likely to see a lot of Alex Caruso, who hasn’t exactly been a defensive stud with really only C.J. McCollum struggling with efficiency against Caruso in the playoffs. The Lakers’ interior defense shouldn’t shake Herro’s approach to scoring, and we know he’s going to be closing out there. No player with four-plus 2020 playoff fourth quarters has played more than Herro’s 11.3 minutes per fourth quarter with Bam a full minute behind him at 10.3 (Jamal Murray second in the league at 10.3). Herro is 20 years old.
*The rest of the bench is a bit tricky. We saw Iggy sub in functionally as a five man throughout the Celtics series to bump Kelly Olynyk out of there. With the Lakers’ size and length, it sure does make sense to use Olynyk as Bam’s backup. Meyers Leonard has also fared well over the years against big-bodied guys like DeMarcus Cousins, and he might actually find time in this series after getting booted out of the rotation for basically all of the playoffs.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder
Matchup Hurts: JaVale McGee, Solomon Hill, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
