Select Page

The 2024 PGA season is here. Get the industry’s best projections

We are drowning in information. In pretty much every aspect of life, figuring out what actually matters and what you can safely ignore is one of the most +EV things you can do. This is true for season-long fantasy football, DFS, running a company, or deciding how to house train your new puppy (do NOT listen to the “potty pad” people. Shills and grifters, all of them).

Sometimes even understanding where to begin is difficult. What are the variables you should consider when training a Cavapoo not to perma-poop all over your cream-colored furniture? It’s hard to know. Luckily, for wide receivers, the problem is relatively straightforward. We want to know which parts of WR production are likely to continue into the future. Which stats and metrics best help us predict fantasy points so that we can win our weekly matchups?

Editor’s Note: Our Bundle Package is LIVE. It packages our Draft Kit and all our In-Season content for the lowest price we’ll have all season. Our In-Season content includes everything you need to get an edge in DFS, including Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards Buy Low Model and Adam Levitan’s context around it. Click here for details.

 

One way to answer the question is to conduct a stability analysis so we can rank the stats according to their predictiveness. Below is a chart based on a large multi-year sample of wide receiver season-pairs. The stability metric used is the year-to-year r-squared of the stat, which you can think of as a grade from 0 to 1, with higher being more stable or predictive.

 

We've created the best Draft Kit on the internet.

Our fantasy football Draft Kit was created to prepare you with the highest-quality resources to help you win your league.

Our team of analysts, led by Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, create unmatched content and rankings to make sure you’re ready for draft day. While our Draft Kit is built for competitive fantasy players, we’ve made it fun and easy to consume.

If you aren’t satisfied with our Draft Kit for any reason, just email us within 48 hours of purchase and we’ll provide a full refund.

Full Draft Kit Overview » Already a subscriber? Log In