We have officially made it to the end of the 2023 season. It’s been a long and profitable season for most of the subscribers and I’m pretty pleased with the journey that we’ve taken this year. While it hasn’t been the most successful year for me, being able to interact with the subs has been a treat (except Discord outcast Cubley21), and hopefully you’ve found this article helpful throughout the year. We’re coming off what seemed to be a tough tournament in DFS last week, as 40% of the field got 6/6 golfers through the cut at the Butterfield Bermuda, which made it that much tougher to win. In a field with a bunch of scrubs, that certainly wasn’t what I expected. This week, we move on to The RSM Classic, which is actually kind of a nice way to end the golf season. Let’s recap the week that was and dive into this resort course for the last time in 2023.
Butterfield Bermuda – Recap
40% of lineups last week had 6/6 golfers make the cut. That’s all you really need to know about the Butterfield Bermuda, where having the winner of the tournament was far from enough to win anything in DFS. When most, if not all, of the chalk hits, it’s going to be very difficult for players like myself to win any real money. If you think about what happens there, you need the stone-cold nuts to take home a big prize in large-field GPP formats when everyone is scoring points over the weekend. This is also generally the basis of playing contrarian, because when you are right, you want to maximize profit in those instances. So, if you lost money last week, take that as a lesson on how you are playing week over week. If you’re playing too chalky, you likely aren’t getting paid off enough when you are right to make the downswings worth it. It’s certainly uncomfortable to play that way, but over the long term, it’s the most profitable way. Speaking of profits, I didn’t make any last week. Luckily for me, I pulled back and only played the $5 Drive the Green versus the Sand Trap. I ended with about a -65% ROI, so I’m happy that I saved some money with some contest selection in a week where I didn’t feel confident in my edge. Here were some of my biggest stands:
- 33% Alex Noren, who gave a good run at the top spot; 20% Schmid; 10% Yuan; 25% Adam Scott; 30% Kuest (flag plant)
- 0% Villegas (lol), Pendrith, Cink, and Brendon Todd
How Camilo Villegas was 5-6% owned in the Drive the Green is beyond me. As I normally ask our ownership guru Cody Main, “How did they know?” This was a week that I wasn’t going to win given the winner of the tournament is some over-the-hill golfer that happened to do decently at the WWT Championship the week before. I’m fine with Villegas beating me. On to the next. Let’s take a look at the winning lineup before moving on to the RSM.
- It had a cumulative ownership of 65%, including the 5%-owned Villegas, as I just mentioned.
- The lineup skipped the $9K range after playing Adam Scott up top. I would say more often than not, the winning lineup tends to skip a whole price range, making for a somewhat unique build.
- It featured three players at sub-6% ownership, so kudos to the winner for finding those plays that were presumably underowned (Cink, Villegas, Yuan).
RSM Classic – Preview
On to the RSM, which is one of those tournaments that will be played on two separate courses for the first two rounds of the event. The “Sea Island” course is broken up into two courses for this event — the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course. The Plantation Course is generally considered the EASIER of the two, but if I remember correctly from last year, not THAT much easier. For those playing showdown in the first two rounds, it will be important for you to evaluate players and what their ownership comes in at and what that’s driven by. Many DFS players overreact to their perceived “edge”, despite literally everyone having the exact same information. I remember last year in R1 showdown at this course, the “Plantation Course” was so owned that it prompted Cody to post some sarcastic tweets about the differences. Once we get through Friday (assuming things end on time), those who made the cut will play on the Seaside Course for the final two days. Once again, one of the courses (Plantation) does not have shot-tracker, which has been messing with my enjoyment this fall season. The past winners of the RSM over the past few years have been:
- 2022: Adam Svensson, -19, two strokes over Brian Harman, Callum Tarren, and Sahith Theegala
- 2021: Talor Gooch, -22, three strokes ahead of Mackenzie Hughes
- 2020: Robert Streb, -19, playoff over Kevin Kisner
- 2019: Tyler Duncan, -19, playoff over Webb Simpson
Other than the weird amount of -19 winning scores, we can certainly notice a trend here. RSM will be another classic fall birdie fest, where we should expect some low scores every day, especially depending on the course that each player is playing for the day. Once again, in a birdie fest, I am leaning into variance, albeit this field is much, much more skilled than the one we got last week.
Speaking of the field, we finally get some legitimate golfers at the top of the player pool to spread ownership out a bit more in the positive direction. We’ve been stuck playing overpriced golfers at ownership because of the weak fields lately, so it’s been refreshing to go through this and not feel like we’re playing a 20% Thomas Detry just to fill out salary, for example. With a stronger field this week, I am seeing some interesting ownership trends across the industry. It looks like no one will be taking heavy chalk, with Ludvig Aberg coming in highest given the hype on him. But again, we’re not looking at 30%+ ownership there unless things get a little out of hand. An interesting wrinkle of the week is that the $9Ks are actually going a little bit overlooked, with people gravitating toward past winners Svensson, Brendon Todd, and Denny McCarthy in the $8K range. I do expect to take on a little bit of chalk this week, but I like a lot of the contrarian plays, specifically up top. I’m likely to target a 50-70% cumulative ownership range this week, with a lean toward the lower end.
Expected Chalk, How to Play It
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