Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
I made these bets at 10:31pm ET on Friday, November 8.
Week 9 Record: 3-1, +232
YTD Record: 31-18, +$1061
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each prop.
1. Kenny Golladay receiving yards
Line: 80.5 yards
Projection: 67.9 yards
Bet: Under (-112)
Notes: Matthew Stafford has been on an absolute tear, but that’s coincided with matchups against the dreadful secondaries of the Vikings, Giants and Raiders. Now comes a road divisional game at Chicago, whose defense has regressed in terms of turnover rate but is still 4th in yards per play allowed. Inflated WR yardage totals are typically spots I’m looking to find unders on.
2. Mark Andrews receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Projection: 3.7 receptions
Bet: Under (+118)
Notes: I don’t typically bet against the projection and it’s a bit scary as there’s market resistance here. But I’m actually happy to grab +118 on this prop as Andrews’ role has been slashed drastically since his dreadful performance against the Seahawks and this is a game Lamar Jackson’s pass attempts have a really low floor.
3. Taylor Gabriel receiving yards
Line: 39.5 yards
Projection: 32.8 yards
Bet: Under (-112)
Notes: Gabriel is riding a streak of 18 straight games under 75 yards, so we know he’s never just smashing this line. He’s also playing far less than he did early in the season thanks to Anthony Miller’s health/emergency. Over the last three weeks, Gabriel has only seen 67% of the snaps and 3.6 targets per game.
4. David Montgomery receiving yards
Line: 15.5 yards
Projection: 18.7 yards
Bet: Over (-112)
Notes: The projection here barely warrants a bet. But this is a premier breakout spot for Montgomery and I want to be early on him. The Lions are banged up throughout their front seven and he’s clearly separated from Mike Davis/Tarik Cohen now. We can safely project Montgomery for 3-5 targets given his new full-time role. I don’t think that’s been baked into this line.