Dynasty Outlook
March 30
Sam Howell is currently our QB4 for rookie drafts, and is outside of the top 24 QBs in our overall dynasty ranks. For Superflex formats, he is a potential first-round pick. Though he seems the least likely of the top five passers in this class to hear their name called on Day 1 of the NFL Draft, he checks a lot of the boxes that we want in a QB prospect for dynasty. Howell has displayed requisite passing efficiency, while also being able to run the ball effectively. Accordingly, all of his comps offered fantasy players a quality rushing floor. With the projected draft capital the way it currently is, this is the highest we can reasonably have Howell at the current date and time, but he has the potential to rise as high as our QB2 depending on how things break on draft night.
Profile Summary
Howell had a very unique career in his three years as the starter for UNC, as he had to re-shape his playstyle after losing many of his teammates to the NFL following the 2020 season. He has shown us that he has both the ability to pass and run efficiently as a QB. Taking too many sacks is an issue the scouts have noted, but he has great arm talent and frame for the way he is used in the run game. The biggest thing going against Howell’s potential early opportunity is that he is unlikely to be a Day 1 pick.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.3
Experience — 3 years
Height — 72.625 inches
Weight — 218 pounds
Hand Size — 9.125 inches
Arm Length — 30.75 inches
Wingspan — 75.5 inches
By the Numbers
Howell is an interesting study, with a career that ostensibly can be broken up into two phases. During Phase 1, he was surrounded by a glut of NFL-caliber talent: Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome, Javonte Williams, and Michael Carter. Howell posted fantastic efficiency numbers during these years, but was not particularly active as a rusher. His performances had Howell in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick heading into the 2021 college season.
As a true junior, with all of those weapons gone, the offense changed quite a bit. Howell was used on a lot more designed runs. He carried the ball 183 times — three less times than his first two seasons combined — for 828 yards and 11 TDs. His pass efficiency came down, but the total value Howell brought to the offense rose significantly. Howell may have the ability to carry that rushing ability to the next level given his BMI.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah believes Howell can be a starter at the next level:
Howell is a thick, compact quarterback with excellent arm strength, toughness, and athleticism. I love the urgency in his drop before he settles at the top of the pocket. He has a quick release and he can really power the ball outside the numbers and down the field. He does this despite very little engagement from his lower half. He transfers his weight too early, with his back foot way off the ground. He has the ability to layer the ball accurately in the intermediate area of the field and he throws a beautiful, lofting deep ball. He has the athleticism to extend and create plays. He also has been effective on designed QB runs, bouncing off tackles and showing surprising burst in the open field. Howell does take too many sacks (at least 33 in each of his three seasons, including 48 in 2021) and tried to force too many throws this past season. However, his entire supporting cast left after the 2020 campaign and that had an impact on his production in 2021. Overall, he has NFL-starter ability.
Dane Brugler compares Howell to a former top overall pick:
The Howell-to-Baker Mayfield comparisons are going to be overused, but with good reason — they make sense. They have similar size, builds, and arms, although Howell has more juice as a scrambler. The North Carolina passer didn’t have the 2021 season many expected, but he has all the requisite traits to start games in the NFL.
Lance Zierlein notes Howell’s effectiveness as a rusher:
Stocky, three-year starter who plays with admirable confidence despite inconsistencies in important areas as a passer. Howell attacks the field working from deep to short when he’s allowed. He’s not a classic full-field reader at this point, but he has pocket poise and mobility to potentially develop in that area in the future. He muscles throws, hindering his accuracy on drive throws, but has adequate arm strength and can expedite off-platform throws. Howell doesn’t throw with nearly enough timing or ball placement, which forces wideouts into the boundaries or to break stride, limiting their YAC potential. He flashed impressive dual-threat talent in 2021, which should work in his favor. The 2021 tape was bumpy, but his makeup is really good and improvement is likely with better pieces around him. Howell isn’t wired for or suited to a ball-control passing attack and might need a vertical passing scheme capable of creating explosive plays in order to succeed.
Draft Projection
Howell currently has an expected draft position of 34.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 40th overall. He goes 47th in Brugler’s most recent mock. Howell seems likely to come off the board somewhere in the first half of Round 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate QB prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable QBs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
QB comps are noticeably difficult to come up with given the overall sample size of players we have to observe. We should be using the comps to see A) What is the likelihood this QB is a long-term starter and B) If he is, what is his upside?
Howell has perhaps the best comps of any QB we’ve studied so far this spring. We can group them into three categories:
Studs — Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson
Failed, but gave rushing value — Marcus Mariota, Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer
Unclear, but offer/offered rushing value — Alex Smith, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence
These comps offer various ranges of longevity and upside, but one thing is consistent — rushing value. Howell seems on a great track to provide fantasy gamers with a high floor whenever he gets an opportunity. How high he can take that is unknown.
It is also worth noting that most of these players were first-round draft selections. Unlike many of the QBs we have studied so far — who had comps in later rounds of the draft despite being projected to go earlier — Howell is projected to be selected after many of his comps. This may not mean anything, but it is interesting in the context of the class.
