NFL legend Wade Phillips is back in 2025 for his second season with the Brahmas and third total season in spring football after serving as the Houston Roughnecks’ defensive coordinator in 2023. Phillips’ offensive nucleus from those two seasons remains entirely intact, bringing back OC A.J. Smith and top assistants Andre Gurode (OL), Payton Pardee (WRs), and Marvin Williams (RBs). Boasting plenty of offensive continuity and now a two-season sample to draw from, we have a pretty strong idea about what the Brahmas’ offense will look like this year.
Smith is a disciple of the Hal Mumme Air Raid and during his coaching tenure has spent time with known pass-first play-callers June Jones and Noel Mazzone. Smith’s pass-first tutelage was on full display as Houston’s play-caller in 2023, where he ranked second in situation-neutral pass rate (68.8%) with a 63.8% overall pass rate. In 2024, however, Smith’s pass rate dropped to a below-league-average 55.2% clip, something that can largely be attributed to leaning on a league-best defense to win games as opposed to his offense. While Smith’s coaching upbringing suggests he should be one of the league’s pass-happiest coordinators, I think we’ll once again see more balance between his run/pass splits like we did in 2024.
With both Chase Garbers and Quinten Dormady no longer on the team, San Antonio will look to offseason additions to fill the void left under center. Chief among them is San Antonio native Kellen Mond, who signed in October and looks to be the favorite to earn the QB1 job at the conclusion of training camp. Mond had a fairly successful collegiate career at Texas A&M, where he was a four-year starter, completing 59.0% of his passes for 7.1 YPA and a 2.6:1 TD:INT ratio. He was a prolific runner, something that has been valued at the QB position in Smith’s offense, racking up 347/2,258/22 on the ground. Selected in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Mond would go on to appear in 10 games, where he struggled as a passer, completing just 56.2% of his throws for 5.7 YPA and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. However, he continued to flash upside on the ground with a 24/106/0 rushing line in those appearances. While I think he may be flawed as a passer, the structure of San Antonio’s offense, combined with the fantasy upside he provides on the ground, will keep him in play as a weekly DFS option as long as he is a starter.
While Smith may have acquiesced his 2024 play-calling approach to suit the capabilities of the offense, he was unwavering in his usage of 3- and 4-WR personnel groupings that are a fixture in his system. Even Cody Latimer, who was a tight end by name only, lined up in the slot on 94.0% of his 2024 dropbacks. We’ll once again see 4-WR sets this season, headlined by Jontre Kirklin, who has been nothing short of Smith’s go-to top target in their two seasons together. Last year, Kirklin ran a route on 97.6% of dropbacks, 92.1% of which came on the perimeter, earning a team-high 26.9% target share and 34.6% Air Yards share on a 10.3-yard aDOT. With Houston the season before, Kirklin appeared in four games before suffering a season-ending injury, posting target shares of 20.0%, 23.1%, 20.0%, and 12.1%. Behind Kirklin, Marquez Stevenson returns for his second season as the team’s top option out of the slot, where he ran 96.7% of his routes in 2024. Stevenson was third on the team in target share (16.0%) and Air Yards share (18.0%), and should operate in a similar fashion in Year 2. Justin Smith rounds out the trio of returning receivers, running a route on 98.9% of 2024 dropbacks, 96.8% of which were lined up on the perimeter opposite Kirklin. Boasting a 15.6% target share and 18.6% Air Yards share, Smith isn’t quite the target earner that Kirklin is, creating a lower weekly floor, but his role in this offense can still result in slate-winning upside.
The 73.8% of routes vacated by Latimer’s departure could be filled by a variety of newcomers, but Smith has rarely used a wide receiver rotation in his two seasons as OC. Whoever earns that fourth spot is likely to play a significant role in the Brahmas’ offense. Greg Ward signed with San Antonio after spending six seasons in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles, where he played primarily out of the slot. He was a strong producer during an extended preseason sample, racking up 30/288/1 in 19 appearances. Jacob Harris signed in January and might be the best physical comparison on the roster for Latimer. The 6-foot-5, 211-pound TE spent the last four seasons on NFL practice squads, appearing in 11 NFL preseason games, where he posted a 16/168/1 receiving line. Dating back to his collegiate days at UCF, Harris has spent time running routes both out wide and in the slot. Other candidates include Racey McMath, Ty Fryfogle, and Ra’Shaun Henry, all of whom profile more as perimeter wide receivers that are likely to provide depth behind Smith and Kirklin, but could be moved inside if necessary. We suspect the official Week 1 depth chart released prior to kickoff will provide more clarity on how San Antonio will deploy its receiving options.
In the backfield, San Antonio returns nearly all of their 2024 rushing production with Anthony McFarland and John Lovett back for their second season. McFarland was one of the UFL’s most explosive RBs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry in 2024, while serving as a receiving threat out of the backfield where he drew a 12.2% target share, ranking third in the entire league in yards per route run (2.37). Lovett profiles to earn more of the early-down and short-yardage work, most utilized between the tackles after leading the team in rush share (53.5%). He, too, showed game-breaking upside in 2024, leading the entire league in Explosive Rushes (16), according to PFF. McFarland and Lovett will be price-dependent weekly DFS options, but I’m not convinced one will separate enough to earn the requisite workload we’re after from top options at the position.
