1. Travis Kelce
I expect Kelce to lead all tight ends in fantasy points — I have him ranked in his own tier positionally — but remain worried about Kelce’s falloff risk when comparing him to other players going in the middle of the first round. Kelce’s ADP is roughly fifth overall; I have him at No. 10. Kelce turns 34 in early October. Straight up, I’m ranking Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, Stefon Diggs, Austin Ekeler, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown over him.
2. Saquon Barkley
This is purely an Average Draft Position issue; Barkley is consistently going in the top 10 fantasy picks and often top eight in home leagues. I’ve got him ranked around pick No. 16. I do view Barkley as a safe RB1 bet with an extreme-volume projection but question his upside when compared to Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb, both of whom I have ranked higher and both of whom carry lower ADPs than Saquon.
3. Bijan Robinson
I have Robinson ranked as a top-18 overall player but struggle to buy into him at his consensus top-10 ADP. My concerns stem from Arthur Smith’s willingness to incorporate Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in a three-man backfield, Atlanta’s extreme run-first philosophy that will curb Robinson’s receiving usage, and 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder’s wildcard quarterback play.
4. Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes’ ADP in home leagues somehow lies on the first-round fringe despite a 34-year-old go-to guy in Travis Kelce and a revolving-door wide receiver crew. Positionally, I’m taking Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen over him straight up and could easily envision Lamar Jackson outscoring Mahomes, as well.
5. Derrick Henry
Henry will be over 29.5 years old when the season starts and accumulated an unholy 2,145 carries on his tires over his last eight football seasons. He’s never been a high-volume pass catcher, while Tennessee’s offensive line looks to be among the worst in the league. It’s another #FadeTheBigDog year for me.
6. Jonathan Taylor
Taylor’s fallout with ownership could get patched up by Week 1, but his ankle recovery is an ongoing concern, while the environment in Indianapolis is scary. Taylor’s passing-game involvement projects as almost nonexistent with run-first rookie QB Anthony Richardson at the controls, and the Colts have gaping holes on their offensive line at left tackle and right guard. This offense could be really, really bad.
7. Najee Harris
Harris was outplayed by Austin Ekeler clone Jaylen Warren for most of last season, and Warren has shared first-team snaps with Harris on a near-even basis this August. Almost entirely lacking of big-play capability, Harris has gained more than 20 yards on just five of 579 career carries. Najee is a volume-driven running back at risk of losing potentially significant volume to Warren, especially in the passing game.
8. Travis Etienne
Especially since he’s now over a full year removed from 2021’s Lisfranc fracture, I expect Etienne to have a successful real-life 2023 season. My fantasy concerns stem from his potential loss of high-value touches to impressive rookie Tank Bigsby, whose game better suits scoring-position and receiving situations.
9. Breece Hall
After tearing his left ACL and meniscus late last October, my expectation is Hall will open the season as unstartable in fantasy football for several weeks but emerge as a major factor once he gets back up to speed and develops confidence in his surgically repaired knee. The Jets gave Dalvin Cook starter money after flirting with Jamaal Williams in free agency and Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft, then selected Tevin Coleman clone Israel Abanikanda out of Pitt. They keep sending us signals that Hall will be eased in.
10. Jerry Jeudy
I wanted to be high on Jeudy entering his first year under Sean Payton following 2022’s fast finish. But Jeudy’s late-camp hamstring strain — potentially of a severe variety — will have me fading him for the remainder of draft season. Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Greg Dulcich are now popping values.
11. Miles Sanders
A fringe fourth-/fifth-round pick in home leagues, Sanders’ ADP is simply far too high for a player who missed a huge chunk of training camp with a groin injury and has never been a bankable passing-game producer. Downgrading from Philadelphia’s elite rushing attack to Carolina’s work-in-progress unit also figures to shock Sanders’ system. Sanders’ floor may be fairly safe, but he lacks elite box-score upside.
12. DeAndre Hopkins
Suspended (PEDs) for Weeks 1-6 last season, Hopkins returned to average 10.7 targets per game in nine appearances, producing 87-plus yards in five of six games and three TDs with Kyler Murray healthy. Released by the tanking Cardinals this offseason, Hopkins now joins the run-first Titans. Last year, Arizona fired off 208 more pass attempts than Tennessee. Hopkins’ ability to command extreme target volume is longstanding, yet now is the time to bet against him at age 31 in a run-based environment.
13. James Conner
Conner’s lone appealing quality is his workload projection with minimal talent behind him on Arizona’s tailback depth chart. Yet the tanking Cardinals profile as the worst team in the league, setting up Conner to rarely hit paydirt and potentially get phased out as this team’s likely lost season progresses.
14. Javonte Williams
Camp reports on Williams have been upbeat, but any running back returning successfully from previous-season ACL, LCL, and PCL tears would be an anomaly. Even in a best-case scenario, Williams is highly likely to split time with Samaje Perine. My guess is Williams spends most of 2023 as Denver’s No. 2 back.
15. D’Andre Swift
Swift is the Eagles’ most talented back, but his touch volume remains to be seen. He’ll be part of a three- to four-man committee in an offense that targeted RBs at the lowest rate in football last year. In Detroit, the coaches thought Swift was incapable of handling big workloads. Rashaad Penny (and Jalen Hurts) are better bets for goal-line chances, while Kenneth Gainwell is the locked-in two-minute/hurry-up back.
16. Michael Pittman
The Colts plan to play run-first offense while throwing developmental rookie Anthony Richardson into the fire. A big possession receiver who last year struggled mightily for efficiency, Pittman managed 9.3 yards per catch and four touchdowns on 99 receptions and this year risks facing a massive volume loss.
17. Mike Evans
Evans enters his age-30 campaign in an offense destined to start multiple quarterbacks. Admittedly, Evans’ ADP cost has dipped to a reasonable range, but he’s never someone I’m excited to draft.
18. A.J. Dillon
Aaron Jones is the best player on Green Bay’s offense entering the Jordan Love era, and Jones’ all-purpose game gives the Packers opportunities to manufacture quarterback-friendly touches that set up Love to succeed. A largely inefficient early-down grinder, Dillon’s role likely stands to lessen this year.
19. Brian Robinson
Under new OC Eric Bieniemy, I’m siding with Antonio Gibson in Washington’s backfield competition based on his superior burst and versatility. Robinson profiles as a limited, plodding two-down grinder.
20. Aaron Rodgers
Expect frustration from Rodgers behind New York’s turnstile offensive line. Also expect frustration from Rodgers’ fantasy drafters based on Rodgers’ preferred slow pace of play and the Jets’ elite defense, limiting shootout scenarios.
21. Ezekiel Elliott
Perhaps based mostly on name recognition, Elliott has become a top-125 pick in home leagues since he signed with New England. I have him as a fringe top-150 guy. Zeke has looked washed up for years, and Rhamondre Stevenson is the most talented player on the Patriots’ offense.
22. Dalton Schultz
C.J. Stroud’s camp and preseason have been a struggle, and signs point toward the Texans building their offense around Dameon Pierce behind one of the league’s premier offensive lines. Stroud’s weapons cast of Schultz, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and John Metchie inspires minimal confidence.
23. Jameson Williams
The 12th overall selection in 2022’s NFL Draft, Williams is going as a top-125 overall pick according to multiple ADP reports. Yet Williams is suspended for the Lions’ first six games and will surely land on the vast majority of season-long-league waiver wires by late September.
24. Romeo Doubs
Christian Watson is obviously a superior talent, and camp reports indicate rookie Jayden Reed has outplayed Doubs, too. Doubs looks like a possession-type, complementary receiver in a suspect offense.
25. Devin Singletary
Preseason signs point toward the Texans deploying Singletary as a clear-cut No. 2 and breather back behind workhorse Dameon Pierce. I’m not ranking Singletary anywhere near the fantasy Top 150.
26. Russell Wilson
Should Wilson struggle like last season, we shouldn’t be surprised if Sean Payton pulls the ripcord early in favor of Jarrett Stidham, who the Broncos signed to a two-year, $10 million deal. Wilson’s supporting cast has taken big hits via injuries to Tim Patrick (Achilles), Jerry Jeudy (hamstring), and K.J. Hamler (heart).
27. Deuce Vaughn
Vaughn is an exciting practice player because of his lateral agility and versatility, but he stands 5-foot-5, 179, and tested as a subpar athlete before the draft. The sixth-round rookie does look likely to make the Cowboys’ final 53. I’m betting on his role involving special teams and sporadic change-of-pace touches.
28. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The Chiefs appear intent on narrowing their backfield to a two-man committee with Isiah Pacheco on early downs and Jerick McKinnon dominating passing situations. At this point, it would not be surprising if Edwards-Helaire lost his roster spot outright to impressive undrafted rookie Deneric Prince.
29. Zay Jones
Jones caught 82 passes last season but averaged a measly 10.0 yards per catch and finished No. 47 among qualified wide receivers in yards per route run (1.68). Already an extremely inefficient player, Jones’ opportunity stands to plummet with Calvin Ridley entering Jacksonville’s wideout fold.
30. D’Onta Foreman
We’re hearing Foreman will be released, paving the way for Roschon Johnson to take over as the Bears’ No. 2 running back behind Khalil Herbert. (Foreman could still resurface in a positive fantasy situation.)
