The Rundown: Week 4

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 4. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. We’ll also provide some additional stats and notes to help make those crucial decisions when building and setting your lineups on Sunday mornings. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Dolphins at Bills, 1 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman noted that Buffalo has surrendered the third-highest explosive play rate despite facing the Jets, Raiders, and Commanders so far this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank first in explosive play rate (21.3%) with no one remotely within shouting distance (49ers 13.6%; second). Miami’s games rank second to only the Colts in average combined plays (134.3) this season.
• Buy Leone: Dawson Knox ($3,100 DK, 1.6 ppg underperformance  — fifth highest among all TEs) appears in this week’s model.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Dalton Kincaid ($3,200 DK, $4,800 FD) as a top TE play on both DraftKings (1st) and FanDuel (2nd). Despite a disappointing role to start the season, we like taking shots on the underpriced first-round rookie in the best game environment of the week.

Broncos at Bears, 1 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game a slow-paced slog. Denver is an unsurprising 27th in situation-neutral pace and Broncos games average the sixth-fewest combined snaps. Chicago has the fourth-slowest offense and has produced the eighth-fewest points and sixth-fewest yards on a per-snap basis. The Bears rank 27th in explosive play rate, 28th in turnovers, and 31st in sacks taken. However, the game also features the league’s two worst defenses by EPA per play, leaving a sliver of hope for a possible shootout.
• OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn didn’t see a notable mismatch from this game. The Broncos (OL 15th; DL 25th) and the Bears (OL 30th; DL 32nd) are each weak on both sides of the ball.
• Buy Leone: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600 DK, 1.9 ppg underperformance) and Javonte Williams ($5,500 DK, 1.8 ppg underperformance — fourth highest among all RBs) both appear in this week’s model.
  • Levitan’s Context: Adam called this week’s matchup a prime breakout spot for Jeudy, who has worked his way back from a hamstring injury and gets to face the Bears’ inept defense. He added that while the Broncos are unlikely to fully unleash Williams, 13-15 touches should lead to his best game of the season in Chicago.
• DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed Justin Fields (DK 4th; FD 3rd) and Russell Wilson (DK 2nd) as top QB plays this week. Despite the disastrous start to the Bears season, Fields is way too cheap ($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD) when you consider his dirt-cheap price compared to the ceiling he showed last year. Wilson has an equally good outlook, as he’s shown an ability to put up points early this season despite Denver’s offensive struggles.

Ravens at Browns, 1 p.m. EST (return to top)