Dynasty Outlook
April 6
Tyler Scott is our WR7 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR38 in our overall dynasty ranks. He has a profile we are seeing a decent bit in this draft class — a smaller, athletic WR who can make plays down the field. It is reasonable to have questions about how this archetype of player will translate to fantasy, and how much Scott contributes to your roster may come down to the QB he ultimately ends up with. The scouts compared him to some big-time producers in this group, while the data was a little more bearish on his range of outcomes. We have Scott backed up against Jalin Hyatt in our rookie rankings, but expect them to be separated more in terms of ADP, leading to a strong buying opportunity.
Profile Summary
Scott is a small WR, but somehow still bigger than a few of the players slated to be drafted ahead of him in this year’s class. He had to compete a little with some NFL talent before finally getting to be the lead target for Cincinnati’s passing game. Scott has big-time athleticism, which is noted in his testing as well as scout commentary. There is a good chance he can fit as a field stretcher at the NFL level. As we have seen with other similar players, that does not always translate into personal production.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/22) — 20.6
Experience — 3 years
By the Numbers
Scott was a three-star athlete (not WR) when he made his way onto Cincinnati’s campus. As a true freshman, he had almost no production but was not redshirted, as he participated in 10 different contests. His participation improved greatly as a sophomore, but Scott was still behind Alec Pierce, who then went on to be a second-round pick for the Colts. He did contribute some on kick returns.
In 2022, Scott had his breakout year, seeing more than double the team touch share he had in 2021, and reaching a 36% dominator rating. He averaged 16.5 yards per reception for his career, indicating that he was making big plays down the field. This lines up with his preseason placement on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Scott to T.Y. Hilton:
While the comparison to T.Y. Hilton might raise some eyebrows, Scott is a similar player in body type, speed, and versatility. With just two seasons of starting experience at receiver, his route running and ball skills are almost certain to continue to improve and become less of an issue for him in the future. He has the speed and shiftiness to uncover on all three levels. Also, he offers jet-sweep and receiver-screen value. A smallish frame and lack of hand strength are likely to continue to plague him on contested catches, though. Scott is an ascending talent whose versatility and playmaking talent create an easily projectable upside as a good starting slot receiver early in his career.
Daniel Jeremiah thinks Scott has big-time speed:
We were just talking about speed. “That’s speed,” Jeremiah said about the burner. “That’s legit big-time speed on the outside. What I love about him is when the ball goes up, as fast as he is, he gets faster. He is fast after the catch. You can use him on jet sweeps. He’s got reliable hands. The one thing that’s normal with a lot of fast guys is just gearing down, getting in and out of cuts. That’s a little bit more effort there, but a pure vertical receiver. I think he is — the grade that I gave him is a Day 2 grade, so second, third round I think is where he goes.
Dane Brugler compared Scott to Tyler Lockett:
It feels like there is a prospect compared to Tyler Lockett every draft cycle, but Tyler Scott has the legitimate upside to be a similar player in the NFL. A high school running back and track stud, Scott has outstanding speed and short-area suddenness to create his own separation. He is one of “my guys” in this year’s draft class.
Draft Projection
Scott currently is not listed on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. This year, it only lists the top 50 players. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Scott 78th overall. Brugler and Jeremiah both appear to have Scott pegged as a Day 2 pick with a decently wide range, and that appears to be where we should expect him to go.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Scott didn’t have quite the production to match players like Hilton or Lockett — who the scouts compared him to — but the assessment of him as a burner rings true when looking at who he is compared to by the data. There is a wide range of success in these profiles, but one constant throughout is speed. Interestingly enough, he draws a comparison to Henry Ruggs and Jameson Williams, who were both top-15 picks. Scott didn’t appear to test with quite that level of speed, but he was still explosive at the Combine.
This is another arbitrage opportunity as well. Scott’s fourth-most similar prospect in our database is Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt. With Hyatt currently expected to be taken ahead of Scott in both the real NFL Draft and dynasty rookie drafts, Scott represents a nice buying opportunity on a similar profile at a discount.
