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NBA Player Props

Looking for some NBA Props action? Built and run by our renowned projections team, we offer a subscription that sources and releases prop bets we like. You’ll also receive access to our private NBA Props Discord community, which has become a hub to discuss betting with other props enthusiasts.

In 2021-22, our team went an incredible 751-495 overall for a 60.2% win rate and 14.0% ROI. In 2022-23, we went 700-455 for a 60.6% win rate and 13.9% ROI. In 2023-24 it was 683-432 for 61.2% and 14.73% ROI. Subscribe today or check out the full details here.

Underdog’s format is a hybrid of DFS and snake drafts. Drafts are six rounds (snake style) and conducted in leagues of six. Scoring is points based, and there are no positional requirements.

Some strategy thoughts:

1. These are often large-field tournaments with 10% of the prize pool going to first place. We should be aggressively drafting for a first-place finish mentality.

2. We want to consider at least one contrarian play. Since the drafts are only 36 picks deep, players ranked deeper often won’t be drafted in many leagues. If they go off, and no one else even has them, it’s a massive leg up on the field.

As you are drafting, there is substantial value to taking players that are drafted on fewer teams. Because these drafts are not that deep, you usually do not need to scroll down too far to still find quality, high upside options. Any ADP higher than 35 will get you some leverage, above 35.5 and you’re getting quite unique.

3. There is also a benefit to creating “different combinations” of players, since most users will follow ADP when drafting, many combinations of players will be the same. One potential strategy is straying a few picks past ADP to pair unique combinations (i.e., players with an ADP of 9 & 10 at the 1/2 turn) when players project similarly to those that are the highest ADP option remaining. In general, it’s ok to give up 1-2 projected points for uniqueness in these fields.

4. It is important to understand the implications of injuries when drafting in the NBA. Always reference the NBA Injury Report when drafting. ETR has a threshold of believing a player must be 75% or more likely to miss the game in order to remove them from projections. This will include all players listed doubtful or out and then players we feel hit our internal threshold that may be listed questionable. Trying to read the tea leaves on injury guesses is a valuable part of playing the Underdog draft game. We encourage people to watch our injury analysis show for our insights.

You should also be familiar with Underdog’s Swap rules that state in the event a drafted player is ruled out ahead of a game’s start and does not play, that player will be swapped to a player who was not selected in your Battle Royale draft, so long as there is a game on your Battle Royale’s slate that has not started yet. This is often an opportunity (through adjusting your rankings) to swap in a low-drafted player with a higher than initially expected projection. Consider that the later the game is played, the fewer the swap options you will have available.

5. If you don’t have an Underdog Fantasy account yet, use Promo Code ETR for a matching deposit bonus up to $125.

6. These rankings will go live at 11am ET daily. They will continuously update after that, through lock.

 

Our rankings for 2024 are based on the following inputs:
– Half base projection and half ceiling projection
– Projections update automatically when ETR updates DFS projections
– Projections will “show” here before they go live on site for DFS projections, when this is the case it represents the “first run” of projections from the minutes team the night before. These may often have status changes on the injury report that haven’t yet been updated by the morning team. Consider these first AM runs very fragile to later day news.

The below rankings can be directly uploaded to Underdog via the CSV download button below. Head to the corresponding tournament on the Underdog Rankings tab and click the CSV upload/download button at the bottom to get going.

Underdog NBA Daily Rankings

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionUD PositionProjectionCeilingRankADPid
Paolo BancheroORLBOSPFSFLEX44.553.611.23bbd7517-c613-4d11-8fa0-02a2f7f04194
Alperen SengunHOUGSWCSFLEX42.852.126699cdca0-1235-48e1-b632-0c7be1afa4d2
Jimmy ButlerGSWHOUSFSFLEX42.551.732.44b672700-54cd-4a67-806a-1fdd33639e4a
Donovan MitchellCLEMIASGSFLEX41.751.144.35ec0dd21-1ae6-4169-b90c-b786d3ce6124
Bam AdebayoMIACLEPFSFLEX40.248.855.1ae7ea68b-bca9-448b-8779-2b3717e5b6e2
Stephen CurryGSWHOUPGSFLEX39.549.062.90542a55d-081f-49e7-9bb7-8069008aa5cc
Evan MobleyCLEMIACSFLEX38.046.3711.23573de1f-9513-41cf-98fa-23e9f28ef4a8
Kristaps PorzingisBOSORLCSFLEX37.546.3911.33dcd642b-8f30-4fc0-8087-2da019f1700f
Jaylen BrownBOSORLSGSFLEX37.146.987.3d0cf3fe9-0f63-4bc4-b3e3-afc8a78ba3db
Tyler HerroMIACLESGSFLEX37.045.8109.30bf31929-ab21-4ee5-8415-d5f83bb967dd
Franz WagnerORLBOSSFSFLEX36.945.6118.274265b6f-31be-41ed-9dc2-d8fc1e418279
Amen ThompsonHOUGSWPGSFLEX36.645.51214.1c9f90055-f14c-4fd8-87c2-9110460133fe
Darius GarlandCLEMIAPGSFLEX33.842.913133baa3a1f-57a6-42a0-89bb-0dcf8e2b1145
Derrick WhiteBOSORLSGSFLEX33.542.11510.302c24900-391e-424f-85c7-4e35af6aa041
Andrew WigginsMIACLESFSFLEX33.442.31416d79f740c-34fe-46d9-9693-4bc69cc90cf9
Jarrett AllenCLEMIACSFLEX30.838.21815.6893f4df6-82c9-45ac-a607-437bdc550ee8
Fred VanVleetHOUGSWPGSFLEX30.639.41622a3d5f70f-62d2-44bd-bbc7-30da5e2b9aac
Draymond GreenGSWHOUPFSFLEX30.039.31717.35d5c567f-9984-46d7-8466-cef053f596e0
Jalen GreenHOUGSWSGSFLEX28.937.71919.22abe145d-7379-4890-893d-f66038217c6a
Brandin PodziemskiGSWHOUSGSFLEX27.936.12020.322c6da36-b5d8-4dc2-9012-42108c6bbb8b
Jrue HolidayBOSORLPGSFLEX26.835.22122.43ef45cca-d082-4905-9c92-7643ab22a3c4
Al HorfordBOSORLCSFLEX25.232.22226.351067140-d76f-4332-81c5-5ed9683627bd
Davion MitchellMIACLEPGSFLEX24.432.723190c3999be-23ff-44c9-85d7-be917e0da625
Wendell Carter Jr.ORLBOSCSFLEX23.630.92425.566b32364-a13b-4829-81be-68476ee85e51
Payton PritchardBOSORLPGSFLEX22.730.62520.61ebe49c0-8a4c-4f49-b10c-c7b3eb18b393
Tari EasonHOUGSWSFSFLEX22.030.92627.9931e8f4b-932c-41c1-bbb1-110cddbae8bf
Ty JeromeCLEMIAPGSFLEX21.530.22723.4394863be-3741-4fbc-af43-a48219774121
Dillon BrooksHOUGSWSFSFLEX21.229.02829.651deb257-3b7c-4995-8613-0c36f6e9c20f
Jabari Smith Jr.HOUGSWPFSFLEX21.028.42929.424964323-497c-42a7-8147-b539e1bf238e
Kel'el WareMIACLECSFLEX19.927.63028.9e6f151b9-af42-4f04-af80-b18e75c656b0
Steven AdamsHOUGSWCSFLEX18.025.83234.14a20871b-92d2-4d34-9d51-1223e2f0bdd3
Haywood HighsmithMIACLESFSFLEX17.925.83132.96867a24a-5f74-4dd3-b552-cbf83670f0cb
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeORLBOSSGSFLEX17.725.53331.6ef31f20f-ec69-4a1c-bfc7-078d4aec5a75
Max StrusCLEMIASGSFLEX17.124.43435.580ff0246-ec23-4748-be91-6bb8f7c42f30
De'Andre HunterCLEMIASFSFLEX16.724.43535.4ea96a041-e481-4e38-af9e-18bf0c54f5b1
Moses MoodyGSWHOUSGSFLEX16.324.136358893eaba-e309-4998-b949-094962ead845
Jonathan IsaacORLBOSPFSFLEX16.124.23735.53bccb297-6f71-4532-b874-d016ed48df0c
Luke KornetBOSORLCSFLEX15.723.33935.961204e9b-9597-4951-add9-58689d022a5f
Gary Payton IIGSWHOUPGSFLEX15.524.13835.652d7b240-65c7-402e-bff0-d820453238ef
Anthony BlackORLBOSPGSFLEX14.022.44035.57fe2a9dc-cf4c-45cb-9fe3-bfce27bd7147
Sam HauserBOSORLSFSFLEX12.720.14134.312f47518-6e17-47cb-a4cd-7012bd1318e1
Cory JosephORLBOSPGSFLEX12.419.84236dfca05b3-f28b-4aae-b79c-80874940f87d
Buddy HieldGSWHOUSFSFLEX11.819.74335.8714a2b22-6001-4cf6-862a-d608adf05947
Cole AnthonyORLBOSPGSFLEX11.519.74433.5902170f7-41b5-484d-aa63-dd536ecff256
Sam MerrillCLEMIASGSFLEX10.918.34535.978031016-0117-47da-8a9a-be52124c1df8
Quinten PostGSWHOUCSFLEX10.418.1463652d55095-955c-476c-8a7d-dc145214d697
Kevon LooneyGSWHOUCSFLEX10.417.94735.9e5f25274-9866-47c7-bb7b-5b3c3715e261
Alec BurksMIACLESGSFLEX10.217.9483642644002-9b59-46c8-b500-94549018f428
Duncan RobinsonMIACLESFSFLEX9.917.74935.98d5447a2-cace-4cc8-9b01-1223bcc062b1
Kyle AndersonMIACLESFSFLEX8.816.650367a32bd67-315e-4d00-a320-28ed0444141b
Isaac OkoroCLEMIASGSFLEX8.015.65135.9384ad4a9-e0a0-4ad6-ba2b-db8abae1eb12
Gary HarrisORLBOSSGSFLEX6.514.05236ad3d1d71-31b2-4d58-acf7-5779d0ede2e0
Caleb HoustanORLBOSSGSFLEX6.213.55336f666c883-21c1-4822-9dd5-a7d1356ed92e
Dean WadeCLEMIAPFSFLEX4.912.45435.95c92fc12-14e5-4868-ae41-0ceefb0c0a13
Gui SantosGSWHOUSFSFLEX4.612.355401bbb18df-9c30-4962-920f-2429667d6c94
Nikola JovicMIACLESFSFLEX3.010.75635.49bd7e3f8-ee1b-458e-8668-e7ae294239c4
Torrey CraigBOSORLSFSFLEX1.99.55736044319d1-5fe4-46ea-b2e6-f0b398a48750
Jonathan KumingaGSWHOUPFSFLEX1.89.55836317bba83-7fa2-4b9d-ab29-fe4b2bce7779
Aaron HolidayHOUGSWPGSFLEX1.49.15940615df243-a60f-4441-838e-4b60217a2609
Goga BitadzeORLBOSCSFLEX0.98.5604044fc79b6-c8e2-4f0a-981b-58bf347b38e7
Keshad JohnsonMIACLESFSFLEX0.88.5614029a2ffbc-a399-4ecf-bdb4-777f62706dd4
Pelle LarssonMIACLESGSFLEX0.68.36240115f2d32-33bb-49ed-954a-8037438b5014
Tristan da SilvaORLBOSPFSFLEX0.68.26340f9b7c3c1-8671-4c07-8940-6619a524afe7