With legal sports betting expanding across the USA and sportsbooks providing more reliable betting options, as well as there being an increased emphasis on expanding available player props markets, we’ve decided to upgrade our prop betting coverage this season.
Alongside Adam Levitan’s personal sourcing of props, we have assembled a team of skilled fantasy players and projections-oriented news grinders to source as many good bets as we possibly can throughout the NFL season. ETR in-Season subscribers will enjoy access to these selections at no additional cost.
Why We Think It’s Possible To Beat The Books
If you’re an ETR subscriber, you know how much time and effort our staff puts into our fantasy projections. Our analytics team is led by longtime DFS pros Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer, who in addition to creating and managing projection systems for years, successfully deploy our system’s outputs in the highest stakes fantasy contests in the world.
But projections are just a starting point. The NFL is a dynamic market that requires more than just following a quantitative projection system to win. To address this, Adam Levitan, who previously sourced bets mostly on his own, will be leading a small team of analysts to source prop bets we think have incorrect lines.
Overall, we’re confident in our combination of quantitative (our projection system) and qualitative (knowledge of betting markets, access to reliable news and information) analysis, particularly as we dedicate more resources to this effort. With that said, we cannot guarantee these results will continue, and we can guarantee that betting markets will continue to get more difficult.
ETR Props Offering
Our In-Season props content is pretty straightforward. You subscribe to our In-Season NFL Subscription, our props team sources as many prop bets as we can find and relays them to you via ETR’s Premium Discord channel and the ETR website. Additionally, we will often (but not always) release a blurb about why we like the bet. You will receive access to an ETR Props Discord channel which we expect will be a great place to discuss props with other enthusiasts. For those looking to source their own bets, all In-Season subscribers will also receive access to our full player projections on Saturday at 1:00 PM ET of each week.
Overall, we aim to make this product a combination of a learning resource, community, and actionable information.
Please note: Accessing our Discord Server will be essential to maximizing your experience with our props package. If you do not want to use the Discord app on your phone to receive push notifications, we recommend keeping expectations low about available lines. Lines will move quickly and you will need to be ready to act quickly in order to get the same or similar lines.
How many props will I get per month? We are hoping to release at least 20 props per month. Adam Levitan was able to source 86 and 89 (DraftKings and FanDuel only) props on his own during the 2019 and 2020 NFL seasons (Sept-Jan), respectively, so we’d expect our props team to source at least that or more. Keep in mind that not all props we find could be on a book you have access to in your state. We can not guarantee a certain number of props each week as we want to ensure quality over quantity.
What sports does this cover? NFL only.
What sportsbooks do you release props for? Regulated sportsbooks within the USA. Though these lines may also be available elsewhere, we will not be releasing plays. Our current list of books are: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars, BetRivers, Barstool Sports, FOX Bet, Circa Sports, bet365, WynnBET, theScore.
Do you offer a betting or line comparison tool? Why not? No. It’s not something we think we can do well at this time, and we also strongly question the value of many of these products. A tool is only as good as the projections and analysis that go into it. We have a team that is both creating projections and sourcing bets. If we think it’s a good bet, we’re sharing it, and often bets that show up as good in a projection may not be for various reasons. In fact, more often than not, we would NOT recommend playing a bet that does show up as a “play” based on a projection system.
When do you release Player Stat Projections? Saturday at 1:00 PM ET.
Why don’t you release Player Stat Projections earlier? Professional gamblers, odds and data services, other fantasy websites, and many serious fantasy football players subscribe to our service. We believe it’s counterproductive to release the underlying projections to such a group before we have the chance to review the opening markets and make our selections, which we will relay to subscribers. There will still be plenty of bets available before Sunday kickoff based on news, injuries, weather, etc., we believe this strikes a fair balance for all parties’ interests. For fantasy purposes, we release fantasy point projections on Wednesday PM
Why are you expanding this service? We understand sports betting is growing in popularity and not everyone has the time for or interest in DFS. We believe in our ability to offer strong player projections due to our expertise in making them for DFS and we’ve tested our process in the markets over the past two years, with strong results. In other words, we think we can offer a service where the quality stands up to our fantasy sports customers’ expectations. Additionally, this product will enable us to justify the cost of a props team that we hope to utilize across our content offerings in the future.
Will there be a “Props Only” Subscription? For now, no. But it is possible in the future.
Your lines may differ from what we have available. Our prop betting team members reside primarily in Colorado, New Jersey, and Illinois, giving us access to nearly every sportsbook and hundreds of prop offerings. If you live in a state with limited access to sportsbooks, your offerings may differ from the lines we are recommending.
Lines move very fast. Our information moves markets. In order to get the best lines available, you’ll need to react quickly when we post new information. While frustrating, this is strong evidence that we have an edge. We urge extreme caution following any betting analyst or service that is NOT moving markets with their selections.
Sometimes we’ll win, sometimes we’ll lose. There are no guarantees about our success. This is not financial advice.
This is new for us. We’re sure there will be growing pains with releasing our picks and subscribers feeling like they were able to get the lines.
In the future, we may remove this from the “In-Season Subscription.” If it’s too difficult to get the posted bets, this will not be a good experience for both ETR and subscribers. We reserve the right to remove this from our In-Season Subscription at any time. In the event this happens, we’d be happy to offer any unhappy customers a pro-rated refund if they’d like to cancel their access.