At Establish The Run, 2021 was our first year really taking player props seriously. Our hard work has paid off, as we went 216-118 in NFL props for +$8572, and we are 411-280 in NBA props for +$9758 so far. NOTE: Bet amounts assume betting to win $100 on favorites and risking $100 on underdogs.
Below, ETR’s own Adam Levitan gives eight quick thoughts on our team’s player props success and how he views the props market moving forward.
1. One of the main reasons we focused on props this year was because we knew we already did the hard work. We wanted to showcase the quality of our fantasy projections and analysis, while also providing value in the betting markets.
2. To find these bets, we exclusively used our statistical projections (the same ones we use for fantasy) plus our knowledge of NFL/NBA and gambling. We did shop for the best line of course, but we did not chase steam, bet breaking injury news, or make a bet just because a line was off-market.
3. Is our NFL ROI of 21.25% sustainable? Probably not to this degree. The market undoubtedly got tougher as the season went on. But the menus are so massive — books posting lines on guys like Chris Manhertz and Kyle Juszczyk. They post thousands of props each week, and we bet an average of 15.7 per week. It’s just too much ground for them to cover.
4. Note that the ROI above is if you got the exact numbers we released every time. Given how fast the lines move after we bet, that’s not realistic. There is an art to getting down — having money on multiple books, knowing which move the fastest, having the right screens up and alerts on.
5. Our best market was receptions, where we went 32-12 for +$2071. Our worst market was pass completions, where went 5-9 for -$527.
We went 52-41 on overs for +$689. We went 160-77 on unders for +$7453.
6. I remain optimistic that the prop market will remain beatable for fantasy players. Books will compete to offer a better product, which will encourage more available bets as time goes on. Limits are relatively low, which keeps out of a lot of smart money.
7. I was really impressed with the props channel in our Discord. They found good bets we didn’t find, had civil/collaborative discussion, and picked off a lot of the news-based stuff we chose not to bet. The Draymond prop-gate is a good example.
8. We know beating sportsbooks is something our audience is intensely interested in. If you have ideas on content or products you’d like to see us do in the future, please reach out.
Also, we are recording an NFL Props Season In Review Show, so send us any questions or topics you’d like to see addressed. Thanks!
If you’d like to get in on the NBA player props action, check out our ETR NBA Bundle, which is currently on a rest-of-season sale.
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Good luck, everyone!