Every year, our Adam Levitan writes a guide to DFS game selection. Last year’s version began with the following assertion:
At least 90% of the analysis you’ll read about NFL DFS discusses picking the right players. Almost all of it will ignore game selection.
In best ball, roster construction analysis rivals player selection, but game selection is similarly ignored, even though there are drastic differences between contests (even contests on the same site!).
Perhaps game selection is underdiscussed because there’s no one-size-fits-all answer, as everyone’s goals and bankroll are different. Some people view best ball as a profit-creating endeavor where the sole goal is to grind out as much expected value as possible. Others — I suspect the majority — play for the fun of drafting and hope they make some money along the way. We can’t tell you exactly what contests to enter because we don’t know how many drafts you want to do or how much money you’re willing to invest. In lieu of a true “Here’s what you need to do” definitive guide, we’ll highlight the differences between best ball cash games and tournaments on DraftKings before diving deeper into the individual tournaments currently offered on DK and what we’d do if we had $500 vs. $2,000 vs. a larger bankroll to use on best ball with eyes on being a profitable player.
CASH GAMES VS. TOURNAMENTS
Most best ball analysis centers around tournaments, and it’s by far the most popular way to play. Still, there is a subset of people who prefer to play cash games (or sit-n-go’s, as they’re referred to on the DK site).
On average, cash games have lower rake than tournaments. The $1 12-person leagues charge 11.1% rake, while the $215 leagues are all the way down at 7.0%. As you’ll see in the next section, this is significantly better than the average tournament (though the high-stakes tournaments also have pretty low rake). If you are an average player, you will lose less money playing cash games as opposed to tournaments.
With that being said, you are trading that higher mean outcome for a significantly lower earnings ceiling. The flagship DK tourney is offering $2 million to first place and $1 million to second. Considering you’re tying up entry fees for four months at minimum, many people prefer the upside of life-changing money vs. a few percentage points lower rake.
We’re mostly going to focus on tournaments today, but it’s important to keep cash games in mind, too. If you don’t like the possibility of losing the majority of your entry fees despite +EV play, it might be a better idea to stick with cash games from a mental perspective. For cash games, remember that much of the analysis you’ll read about optimizing for later weeks and game-stacking playoff games is irrelevant. Stacking, while still preferable given the correlation between a QB and his pass catchers for an entire season, becomes much less of a priority.
A BIRD’S-EYE VIEW OF ALL DRAFTKINGS TOURNAMENTS
First, let’s summarize each DK tournament by entry fee, grand prize, rake percentage, and advancement structure.
Tournament Name | Entry Fee | Grand Prize | Pool Size in Final Week | Rake | Advancement Structure |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
$1.5M Play Action | $3 | $150,000 | 688 | 15.9% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 688 pool in Week 17 |
$200K Huddle | $5 | $20k | 110 | 15.8% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 110 pool in Week 17 |
$20K Engage Eight I-IV | $8 | $5k | 8 | 13.2% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/12 advance in Week 15, top 1/10 in Week 16, 8 pool in Week 17 |
$300K Button Hook | $9 | $30k | 45 | 14.3% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 45 pool in Week 17 |
$120K Chain-Mover II | $10 | $25k | 39 | 14.5% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/10 in Week 16, 39 pool in Week 17 |
$200K Bubble Screen | $15 | $50k | 18 | 14.3% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 18 pool in Week 17 |
$15M Millionaire | $20 | $2 million | 1021 | 15.0% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 1/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 1021 pool in Week 17 |
$50K Three-Point Stance IV | $33 | $10k | 6 | 12.3% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/8 in Week 16, 6 pool in Week 17 |
$10K Chop Block III and Chop Block IV | $50 | $2k | 4 | 7.4% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/6 in Week 15, top 2/6 in Week 16, 4 pool in Week 17 |
$500K Strong Side | $59 | $100k | 22 | 10.8% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/12 in Week 15, top 1/12 in Week 16, 22 pool in Week 17 |
$500K Hot Route | $100 | $100k | 23 | 9.4% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/10 in Week 15, top 1/8 in Week 16, 23 pool in Week 17 |
$200K Pocket Passer | $250 | $30k | 8 | 7.4% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/6 in Week 15, top 1/6 in Week 16, 8 pool in Week 17 |
$5M Monster Millionaire | $555 | $1 million | 52 | 9.8% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/8 advance in Week 15, top 1/8 advance in Week 16, 52 pool in Week 17 |
$432K Luxury Box | $3,180 | $150k | 3 | 5.7% | Top 2/12 advance in Weeks 1-14, top 2/8 in Week 15, top 3/6 in Week 16, 3 pool in Week 17 |
We unsurprisingly see decreased rake at higher stakes, just like DK does for DFS. In the previous section, we mentioned that the rake for a $1 sit-n-go is 11.1%, and it’s 7.0% at $215. For the cheapest tournaments, you’re paying about 50% more rake.
IF YOU WANT TO PLAY $500 PER SEASON IN DRAFTKINGS BEST BALL
I’ll note once again that this is an imperfect exercise because each person has different goals volume-wise. We’re giving a reasonable entry strategy for someone looking to enter a reasonable number of drafts while minimizing rake and exposing themselves to high-end outcomes/life-changing money, but it’s unlikely this exact game selection rollout works perfectly for everyone, so feel free to adjust based on your own preferences.
- Enter the Button Hook three times. Total $27. The Button Hook has 14.3% rake, reasonable for lower stakes, and boasts a winnable 45-player pool in Week 17 with $30,000 up top.
- Enter the Chain-Mover six times. Total $60. I’d expect more Chain-Movers to be posted in the future since this is already the second one (Chain-Mover II), and with its 14.5% rake and reasonable advancement structure with 1/10 advancing in Week 16 and a 39-player Week 17, it’s a good lower-stakes contest to enter.
- Enter Bubble Screen one time. Total $15. This single-entry tournament charges 14.3% rake and has just 18 players in the final week, making Week 17 correlation far less important than it is in the bigger tournaments.
- Enter all four Engage Eights three times. Total $96. There are currently four Engage Eights in the DK lobby. This number will change as contests fill and are added, hence why this isn’t a perfect guide for everyone. Still, the Engage Eight has a low (for low-stakes) 13.2% rake with 2/12 advancing in Weeks 1-14 and Week 15 and just an 18-player final pool. NOTE: If you are trying to do fewer contests but still hit the $500 mark, you could just do one Hot Route draft ($100 entry) at 9.4% rake.
- Enter the Three-Point Stance three times. Total $99. Our highest-stakes contest has a 12.3% rake and a six-player final pool, meaning stacking is far less relevant than it is in large-field contests.
- Enter the Millionaire Maker 10 times. Total $200. Of course we’ll throw some bullets in the flagship contest. While the Milly Maker has higher rake at 15%, it’s possible it also has a softer field than some of the limited-entry contests, and stacking/game-stacking, which the field likely underutilizes, presents an edge. In such a massive contest, you are highly unlikely to win even if you play things perfectly, but you can put yourself in positive-expectation situations for sure.
- Enter the Play Action once. Total $3. We have three dollars left, so we’ll take a stab at another big prize up top, admittedly one with 15.9% rake.
IF YOU WANT TO PLAY $2,000 PER SEASON IN DRAFTKINGS BEST BALL
- Enter the Hot Route three times. Total $300. At higher stakes, we get lower rake. The Hot Route is in the single digits at 9.4% and has the top 2/12 advance in the first two rounds before an eight-player pool in Week 16 and 23 in Week 17.
- Enter the Pocket Passer once. Total $250. Single-entry contest with a very small 7.4% rake. Our highest-stakes contest with $30K up top and a reasonable advancement structure toward the final week.
- Enter the Three-Point Stance 10 times. Total $330. Slightly higher rake here at 12.3%, but to enter $2,000 in DK best ball with decent draft volume, you have to get some double-digit rake contests (at least with the current offering — perhaps lower-rake contests will be posted later in the summer).
- Enter both Chop Blocks three times. Total $300. At a very bearable 7.4% rake, the Chop Block is one of the best contests to enter on the site. There are currently two Chop Blocks posted, but this number will vary throughout the summer.
- Enter the Strong Side 10 times. Total $590. The Strong Side is up at 10.8% rake with a fairly standard advancement structure leading to a 22-player Week 17. NOTE: If you want to shoot for big life-changing money at the top, you could sub out some Strong Sides for additional Millionaire Makers.
- Enter the Bubble Screen one time. Total $15. Single-entry contest with 14.3% rake. Perhaps a lower-rake contest at a similar price point will be posted later in the summer.
- Enter the Millionaire Maker 10 times. Total $200. Same caveat as above that the Milly Maker has a big 15% rake, but one could argue the field is softer than other contests with most casuals shooting for the big prize, and stacking and game-stacking can offer a big edge over the field (though with such a big field, the odds your edge is realized into money is very low).
- Enter the Button Hook two times. Total $18. This contest has a 14.3% rake, reasonable for a $9 entry fee.
NOTE: The above is specific to DraftKings and NFL. But the principles outlined can be applied to any site or any sport:
- Be rake-conscious and seek out the smallest rake.
- Understand advancement structure and adjust your strategy as it pertains to the tournament weeks (Weeks 15-17).
- Examine the payout structure and understand what it means for correlation strategy.
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