We have the first full-day NBA slate and there are so many favorable spots for DFS players to target. With so many games, the notes section won’t be quite as thorough as Thursday, but each game has some detail on rotations to help you identify some second-unit targets as cheap options to go with the studs.
Orlando Magic (109.8) vs. Brooklyn Nets (102.8)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 24th, Nets 11th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 16th, Nets 13th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Magic 22nd, Nets 8th
Magic expected starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Nikola Vucevic
Nets expected starters: Chris Chiozza, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
Injury news: Wes Iwundu (concussion) is questionable, Aaron Gordon (groin) is not on the injury report after missing a scrimmage and did practice on Wednesday, Rodions Kurucs (hip) is probable, Jamal Crawford (conditioning) is doubtful, Donta Hall is not on the injury report and may not be in the rotation.
Magic rotation notes: Coach Steve Clifford said he will run 10-11 man rotation, Khem Birch was checking in ahead of Mo Bamba in scrimmages, Jonathan Isaac has strict minutes limit after seven minutes on Monday, Michael Carter-Williams has played both guard spots and should see time at SG for Iwundu, Fultz played just nine minutes in scrimmages after late arrival, Clifford said this is essentially a playoff game for the Magic.
Nets rotation notes: Tyler Johnson leapfrogged Jeremiah Martin for the PG2 spot and coach Jacque Vaughn said TJ will be used at both guard spots, Vaughn said he “could easily change” on using a non-Chiozza guard next to LeVert, Allen played 31 minutes on Monday and didn’t even play in the final seven (all minutes with LeVert in that one), Kurucs expected to play the backup PF and C (hip issue was from contact on Monday, he played through it), Vaughn also said he’ll mix it up in Orlando on when he goes with a tighter rotation compared to a deeper one.
The Magic find themselves in a very favorable spot with the Nets set to have bad perimeter and interior defense with almost any Nets lineup combination. On the year, they allowed the seventh-most drives in the league and were top 10 for percentage of paint points scored via drives, so adding a bad defender in Chris Chiozza into the mix opens up some attractive scoring upside on the perimeter. Sadly, Fultz will likely be capped too much to use in DFS, and Augustin won’t initiate the offense enough. Fournier and Ross could take advantage, though. Vucevic did actually really struggle against Allen offensively, but he still produced with some great non-scoring stats. Gordon should also have a major advantage against the forwards, and he was hot before the shutdown (17/9/7).
In one of the scrimmages, Vaughn emphasized playing Harris, LeVert and Allen,and those guys are locked in for minutes. LeVert was a top-three usage player in the scrimmages (min 15 mpg, two games), and he’s about as chalky as it gets. The Magic defense wasn’t exactly great before the shutdown, and a lot of moving parts in their rotation could help the Nets offense (Magic worst defense in scrimmages). Chiozza possibly seeing more DJA could help extend his minutes, and those wanting to use the one they call Cheese should be rooting for Augustin to start over Fultz. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot was a disaster on efficiency and had a lot of responsibility on offense, but that could be dialed back. Kurucs should find minutes anyway, and he could be looking at very big playing time if Allen gets into foul trouble.
Memphis Grizzlies (111.3) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (113.8)
Offensive pace on season: Grizzlies 8th, Blazers 19th
Defensive pace on season: Grizzlies 4th, Blazers 3rd
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Grizzlies 1st, Blazers 16th
Grizzlies expected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jonas Valanciunas
Blazers expected starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic
Injury news: Tyus Jones (knee) is out for one week, Justise Winslow (hip) will not play in Orlando, Damian Lillard (foot) is good to go after missing two scrimmages, Jaylen Adams (back) is questionable.
Grizzlies rotation notes: De’Anthony Melton was a PG earlier in the season and figures to back up Ja, Gorgui Dieng was squeezed out of first-quarter rotation in last scrimmage, Grayson Allen was added to the rotation even before the Tyus news, Brandon Clarke for Valanciunas likely to be the first sub, possible Josh Jackson enters rotation as backup SF.
Blazers rotation notes: Stotts used a Whiteside-Nurkic combo for 13 minutes in one scrimmage and just one minute in the other when both were available (it was roasted vs. Raps), Mario pushed down in rotation with bigger frontcourt and subbed in for Melo, Gary Trent Jr. likely to be the first sub and play minutes at both wing spots, Anfernee Simons could see additional time if Dame is limited.
With the Grizzlies looking to avoid a play-in game, Morant should be looking at some heavy minutes. He played nine minutes in the first quarter in the last scrimmage, and he should have minutes close to 35 against what will be a horrible team on transition defense (fifth worst on year, likely even worse with this bigger lineup). Melton should find plenty of minutes at PG/SG/SF, and his perimeter defense should be very useful against Dame and C.J. Potentially, the Grizzlies could keep it really tight with JJJ, Clarke and JV up front. Dillon Brooks will shoot too much in this game.
Dame Lillard said he didn’t know what happened to his foot before he got his X-ray, and he said he feels fine now. Dame usually can hit the ground running on minutes after injuries, so he could still get up there in playing time. In his only scrimmage, Lillard did have his lowest usage rate in the last five years compared to regular season games.
Phoenix Suns (115.5) vs. Washington Wizards (108.5)
Offensive pace on season: Suns 14th, Wizards 4th
Defensive pace on season: Suns 7th, Wizards 6th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Suns 10th, Wizards 15th
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Dario Saric, Deandre Ayton
Wizards expected starters: Shabazz Napier, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Injury news: Kelly Oubre (knee) will not play, Jalen Lecque is in quarantine in the bubble and will not play, Dario Saric (ankle) not on the injury report, Garrison Mathews (personal) will not play.
Suns rotation notes: Rubio likely to have a minutes cap, Cam Payne likely the backup to Rubio with Jevon Carter behind Booker, Cam Johnson was first sub in two scrimmages (started in third), coach Monty Williams said Aron Baynes needs more conditioning, Saric ‘looked a lot better than he did a couple days ago’ per Williams, Frank Kaminsky expected to play PF and C.
Wizards rotation notes: Only two minutes of Ish Smith next to Napier in scrimmages (20 minutes in season), Ian Mahinmi did not play in scrimmages, Moe Wagner subs in early for Thomas Bryant, Bonga played SG/SF/PF in scrimmages, Jerian Grant seeing minutes at both guard spots.
Mikal Bridges was one of the bright spots on the scrimmages with his 26-point game in the third contest, and all three of his scrimmage usage rates would rank in the top five for every other game he played this season (70 games). Coach Monty Williams said that Bridges will see more opportunity, and even Devin Booker called him impressive. Williams also really mentioned that he wants Cam Johnson to shoot it a ton, so he could have addition minutes headed his way if Dario is limited. Besides the 3-pointers for Ayton, he’s also been way more involved in action on offense, and it could translate to a big line in a very favorable matchup against a terrible defense. Both of these teams are in the top five for points off drives allowed per game, so a big opportunity awaits perimeter players like Devin Booker.
Troy Brown figures to have the ball in his hands a lot in what should be a favorable matchup. He ran a lot of the halfcourt plays, and his per-minute output without Beal is outstanding this season (Napier also in a small sample). Rui Hachimura was also on muscle watch and was more involved earlier in possessions, and he could have himself a very favorable matchup against a vulnerable frontcourt. The Wizards did use some Ish-Napier combos in the regular season, but there hasn’t been much talk of it since before the scrimmages started.
Boston Celtics (106.8) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (111.8)
Offensive pace on season: Celtics 18th, Bucks 1st
Defensive pace on season: Celtics 18th, Bucks 8th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Celtics 5th, Bucks 2nd
Celtics expected starters: Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis
Bucks expected starters: Donte DiVincenzo, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Injury news: Eric Bledsoe (conditioning) and Pat Connaughton (conditioning) will not play, Frank Mason (back) is probable, Marvin Williams (groin) is doubtful, Kemba Walker (knee) is expected to play 14-20 minutes.
Celtics rotation notes: Tatum subbing out early in scrimmage and saw more on-ball when staggered away from other starters upon his return, Wanamaker likely to sub in early with Smart for Tatum and Kemba, Semi Ojeleye and Kanter likely main second-unit frontcourt guys.
Bucks rotation notes: Wild substitution patterns, Hill likely to be one of the first subs for Middleton to stagger, Korver likely in rotation behind Wes, Giannis sat at normal 7-8 minutes in first quarter during scrimmages.
The Bucks interior defense is ridiculously good, and it’s not just against bigs with easily the best defense against drives in the league. Although, a limited Kemba does bode extremely well with Tatum getting a 7.6% boost to his usage rate when Kemba is off the court. Jaylen doesn’t quite get the boost like Tatum does and he does shoot it much better with Kemba on the floor.
Giannis was an absolute per-minute stud in the scrimmages, leading Orlando in both usage rate and pace (min. 15 mpg, two games). GA’s scoring doesn’t really change much without Bledsoe, but he does get a decent boost on dimes. Middleton was also ridiculously hot prior to the shutdown, and he received some buzz for being in such great shape. Brook Lopez was a blocking machine to give him terrific per-minute output in Orlando, and his minutes figure to be safe. George Hill was great against the Celtics last year, but just the depth of this roster and the constant subs makes it tough to trust most guys. DiVincenzo could see some extra minutes at some point with the Bucks likely to manage players at some point through these eight games.
Sacramento Kings (111.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs (108)
Offensive pace on season: Kings 17th, Spurs 15th
Defensive pace on season: Kings 28th, Spurs 15th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Kings 6th, Spurs 4th
Kings expected starters: De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Richaun Holmes
Spurs expected starters: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl
Injury news: Marvin Bagley (foot) will not play in the bubble, Alex Len (re-conditioning) will not play, Bryn Forbes (quad) will not play.
Kings rotation notes: Bjelica saw time at the five in scrimmages, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes have no limitations on their minutes (Barnes first sub in last scrimmage), Buddy Hield subs in early for frontcourt players, most of Harry Giles scrimmage minutes were with small-ball fours.
Spurs rotation notes: More usage of a DeMar-Gay forward combo in third scrimmage, Keldon Johnson subbed in for White in each of the three games, Spurs have mentioned they want to run more Dejounte/White/Walker together, Quinndary Weatherspoon likely to back up Dejounte, Drew Eubanks behind Poeltl with some Gay at the five.
Both of these defenses looked horrible in the scrimmages with both being in the bottom five (note pace above, too), and clearly the new Spurs rotation with so many young guys leaves them vulnerable to allowing some huge stat lines. No minutes limit for Holmes should make him very popular.
Even with all the youth movement talk, Jakob Poeltl sounds like he’s safe for minutes in the 20s in a very good matchup for him with some blocking upside to go with it. Derrick White saw some increased usage in the scrimmages, and Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson were also taking big steps forward.
Houston Rockets (114.3) vs. Dallas Mavericks (115.3)
Offensive pace on season: Rockets 2nd, Mavericks 22nd
Defensive pace on season: Rockets 21st, Mavericks 10th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Rockets 3rd, Mavs 18th
Rockets expected starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Mavericks expected starters: Luka Doncic, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis
Injury news: Courtney Lee (calf) and Dwight Powell (Achilles) will not play in Orlando, Eric Gordon (ankle) is expected to miss over a week.
Rockets rotation notes: McLemore likely to sub in early for Westbrook to stagger, Rockets expected to use Jeff Green at the four along with backup five role, House will play decent amount of PF, this should be one of the tightest rotations of the day.
Mavericks rotation notes: Boban Marjanovic subbed in for KP in both scrimmages they were available (note: not a great Boban matchup against the Rockets), Burke ahead of Barea in last scrimmage, Maxi Kleber played more PF in scrimmages when KP was active (note again: matchup should have Kleber more at the five).
The Mavs could really fill it up against a team that allows the most transition points per game in the league, and the KP at the five lineup was outstanding on the offensive side. Seth Curry had an 81 TS% with KP at the five (199 minutes), and the smaller lineups being out there could help his playing time. Luka was also extended to 9.5 minutes per first quarter in the last two games, and he should be all set for a full workload in what should be a favorable matchup. KP won’t have anyone out there his size, and one of his best games of the season was against the Rockets (35 points, 1/31, Luka did not play in this one).
You probably don’t need me to tell you to play James Harden, especially after his insane run in the scrimmages as easily the best player. Westbrook should also be busy with some increased pace, and coach Mike D’Antoni’s talk of wanting to push the pace more has held up in the scrimmages. Finney-Smith is likely going to spend a lot of time on Harden, which could create some very favorable mismatches for Russ. Covington’s minutes could be extended slightly as guys move up to help fill guard minutes, and run into a bunch of defensive stats.
