We’re two games in and we’ve seen some of the outlier rotation tweaks stand out after foul trouble really derailed some plans in the Monday games. We’re also getting a bigger sample on playing time to help identify better game environments. For instance, the Mavs-Clippers series has been extremely fast, but the Jazz-Nuggets series has been very slow to really limit upside on lack of possessions. That may not change either. The two Eastern Conference games could be blowouts, too. Although, it looked like the Raptors-Nets game on Wednesday was set for a blowout, and that was the only game on Wednesday that didn’t have garbage time. We’ll see about that today, though.
Toronto Raptors (-10.5) vs. Brooklyn Nets, 1:30 pm ET
Team totals: Raptors 115.3, Nets 104.8
Pace Ranks: Raptors 12th, Nets 10th (second-fastest pace on slate at 100.8 in first two)
Defensive Ranks: Nets 10th, Raptors 2nd
Injury News: Jamal Crawford (hamstring) and Joe Harris (personal) will not play.
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Nets Expected Starters: Caris LeVert, Tyler Johnson, Garrett Temple, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jarrett Allen (note: practice video looked to show Tyler with the first unit)
Raptors Rotation Notes: Marc Gasol has looked a step slow and it’s costing him minutes, Raptors closed with small-ball five after using it for just two minutes (Lowry, FVV, Norm, OG, Siakam), zero minutes of Serge-Gasol in Game 2.
Nets Rotation Notes: Eight minutes of Rodions Kurucs with Jarrett Allen in Game 2 (11 in Game 1), 14 minutes of Tyler Johnson with LeVert in Game 2 (eight in Game 1), Chris Chiozza with six minutes next to LeVert in Game 2 (one in Game 1).
*Pascal Siakam’s offensive output just hasn’t been there compared to his season output. His usage rate is down 4.0%, his assist percentage is down 5.8% and his TS% is down 2.4%. He’s been guarded by TLC more than anyone, and you’d think he’d be able to dominate. One area specifically he’s struggled is off the dribble, turning in a horrible 2-of-15 on shots off 3-plus dribbles in this series, and he only had a 38.4 eFG% on those shots in the seeding games (44.4 eFG% before that). Shot location wise, he’s been fine, but he’s just 4-of-13 in the paint in the playoffs and at just 22-of-48 in the seeding games (45.8%). That’s just not even close to his 55.4% in the paint on the season. It has looked like he’s found his groove in the first in both games, but just loses momentum. As mentioned on Wednesday, a lot of the Raptors are almost getting annoyed on it, and even Nick Nurse said there’s been so much talk about “Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal, Pascal.” The Nets are probably going to have to play even smaller without Joe Harris, so Siakam should get better if this game is close again.
*Losing Joe Harris is a big deal and his spacing is so huge for Caris LeVert. Small sample, but in 18 minutes in this series with LeVert and without Harris, the Nets have a -49.5 net rating. Garrett Temple is really going to have to move well along the 3-point line, and the same for TLC. Chris Chiozza is going to have a really tough time against the Raptors guards, so coach Jacque Vaughn may have to throw Jeremiah Martin into the fire a bit. TLC and Temple are leading the playoffs in no-dribble 3-point shots, so they might be adding to it. As mentioned in the first two Matchups, LeVert is really going to just dominate how the offense functions and he’s really been limited as a scorer at just a 36.4 TS%, but he is second in drives (Luka), second in potential assists (23.5, LeBron) and fifth in time of possession per game.
*The Raptors look to be Fred VanVleet’s team, and he’s basically turned into Morey Ball with only one two-point shot beyond seven feet in the playoffs. In fact, of his 161 points he’s scored since Feb. 26, none of them have been a non-paint two. None! He’s been distributing the ball more than Kyle Lowry with more potential assists in the playoffs and in the seeding games. He’s also more than doubled his scoring off PNR at 11.0 points per game in the playoffs (4.9 in regular season). An undrafted player shouldn’t have this kind of price tag, but he’s worth it.
Denver Nuggets (-1.5) vs. Utah Jazz, 4:00 pm ET
Team totals: Nuggets 110.3, Jazz 108.8
Pace Ranks: Nuggets 29th, Jazz 24th (slowest on the slate at 92.7)
Defensive Ranks: Nuggets 16th, Jazz 13th
Injury News: Mike Conley (personal) is probable, Ed Davis (knee) is out, Justin Wright-Foreman (NWT) is out, and the Nuggets still don’t have Gary Harris (hip) or Will Barton ) (knee).
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic (note: going out on a limb here on Grant, explain why below)
Jazz Expected Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Torrey Craig led team in first-half minutes at 18.9 (Jokic 17.6, Murray 16.3, MPJ 16.0, Grant 15.3, Millsap 12.5), Craig matched Mitchell (18.1/18.9 minutes), Millsap has the slowest pace in the playoffs (min 20 mpg).
Jazz Rotation Notes: Mike Conley entering cuts into Juwan Morgan, Emmanuel Mudiay and Georges Niang minutes.
*The pace of the last game was really slow, with the starting units sitting at 85.9 and 86.0. It’s not like Conley’s arrival is going to alter the pace here with Conley’s on/off pace basically being the same. The Nuggets were really slow back when the season started, and it’s feeling like they’re going to play in some pace-down games in this series.
*Mike Conley entering the mix certainly changes some things. In Game 2, Donovan Mitchell played about as well-rounded of an offensive game as he could after his drive fest for his 57 in Game 1. The easy part of the Conley news is that guys like Royce O’Neale and Ingles won’t be asked to generate offense. Of course, the big question is how it affects Mitchell. In the seeding games, Conley was handling the ball more per minute, and it really cut down on Mitchell’s dimes per minute. Mitchell was still an excellent scorer over a 124-minute sample with Conley (25.3 per 36), and over the course of the season Donovan actually had a higher usage rate with Conley on the floor compared to without him. The field might overreact to Conley’s impact on The Don.
*The Nuggets really need to make some changes to their defense now with Conley back. The Jazz are first in drives per game on the season and first in 3-point percentage (also right at their pace on drives at 57 per game in the playoffs even without Conley, 57.4 in season). It makes all the sense to bench Millsap for Jerami Grant to help on switches and close out on 3-pointers. Without Juwan Morgan out there, it really becomes a tougher matchup for Millsap.
*Both Mitchell and Jamal Murray have been awesome in PNR in this series with Mitchell at an absurd 1.53 PPP and Murray at 1.46.
Boston Celtics (-5) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Celtics 110.5, 76ers 105.5
Pace Ranks: Celtics 17th, 76ers 20th (second-slowest pace on slate at 93.8)
Defensive Ranks: Celtics 4th, 76ers 8th
Injury News: Gordon Hayward (ankle) remains out, Javonte Green (knee) is questionable, Glenn Robinson III (hip) is out.
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
76ers Expected Starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid
Celtics Rotation Notes: Daniel Theis got played off the court a bit with lack of size and Enes Kanter getting more run, Jaylen had team-high 18.6 first half minutes in Game 2, only Brown and Tatum played more than 15.1 minutes in the first half (16.5 for Tatum).
76ers Rotation Notes: 76ers have a -30.6 net rating with Al Horford on the court in this series (-5.7 without him), 16 minutes of Embiid-Horford in Game 2 (21 in Game 1), 10 minutes of Burks-Shake in Game 2 (five in Game 1), Matisse Thybulle is the low usage rate man in bubble at 4.5 (min 20 mpg), Romeo Langford made an impact defensively in second unit (with Wanamaker, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye) and Stevens praised Langford for shooting and his role.
*The 76ers offense is just a disaster right now. In Game 1, they somehow averaged 19.5 seconds per possession off a Boston make on the other end. Coach Brett Brown made a smart move to take Al Horford out, but he really just needs to cut out any Embiid and Horford overlap. In 35 minutes with Embiid and Horford, the 76ers have a -42.8 net rating. Pretty much anyone who watched the game knows how poorly the 76ers handled the Celtics’ ball-handlers and Brett Brown said he thought the 76ers could’ve brought their bigs up earlier in Boston’s PNR action. He said that after watching film (did he even watch the game live??). Plus, the 76ers’ PNR game has been at a woeful 0.72 points per possession. Besides Embiid and Josh Richardson, really all bets are off.
*When Jayson Tatum went off in February, it was largely because he shot 48.1% from three, and he was cooking in the seeding games at 48.9% on his 45 attempts. Matisse Thybulle did a fine job on him in Game 1, but Tatum just dominated anyone Brett Brown put on him. Tatum has really unlocked his PNR game at 1.50 PPP on 16 possessions so far in this series (more than 2X better than Philly in this series). He can beat any defense because he can score in so many different ways in efficient fashion. He’s only 14 years old, too.
*The 76ers aren’t putting Richardson on Kemba much with Shake having the most time on him in the first two games. Kemba has struggled vs. J-Rich over the last few years, and Kemba hasn’t found his jumper yet at just 9-of-25 in this series (1-of-10 on treys). Walker was really hot as a jump shooter in the seeding games at a 67.0 eFG% on 47 attempts, so it might really come together for him in this one.
LA Clippers (-5) vs. Dallas Mavericks, 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Clippers 118.8, Mavericks 113.8
Pace Ranks: Clippers 8th, Mavericks 18th (fastest on the slate at 106.0)
Defensive Ranks: Clippers 5th, Mavericks 18th
Injury News: Trey Burke (ankle) is probable, Kristaps Porzingis (heel) is probable, Patrick Beverley (calf) is doubtful.
Clippers Expected Starters: Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac (note: wouldn’t be surprised if Reggie doesn’t start with Lou Williams or Landry Shamet taking over)
Mavericks Expected Starters: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis
Clippers Rotation Notes: PG foul trouble cost him in Game 2, Zubac and Montrezl Harrell occupied almost all of the C minutes in the first half (just 0.3 minutes), Kawhi at 22.2 minutes in first half in Game 2, Marcus Morris continues to see huge playing time, Reggie Jackson struggling on defense.
Mavericks Rotation Notes: Luka foul trouble cost him minutes in Game 2, Maxi Kleber only has an 8.0 usage rate in playoffs, KP has the fastest pace in the playoffs at 111.0, Luka leading playoffs in usage rate, Mavs’ second unit has smashed with O rating with Curry at 128.7 and Trey Burke’s net rating at +16.5.
*Montrezl Harrell isn’t quite right yet, and coach Doc Rivers talked about it. “His rhythm’s not great. His conditioning is not great. It’s just a tough place to try to integrate a guy. … We need him, but it’s tough to throw him in.” Marcus Morris did see a minute at the five after more time there in Game 1, but the C spot could be messy here.
*The Clippers can’t keep Luka out of the paint with 23-of-25 of his twos coming in the paint, making an extremely efficient 15-of-23 of those paint shots. They did limit his drives a tad in Game 2, but Doc Rivers went to Reggie Jackson on Luka way too much to go with some bigger bodies on him.
