We get our first look at some Eastern Conference semifinals action to go with two more first-round games. With it being Game 1 of the Celtics-Raptors series, I went a little deeper on the matchups side to try to cover more of the angles of that series. It should really be a defensive battle and I’d expect it to be the lowest-scoring game of the day by a decent margin, but it’s also very likely to be a close game to offset the lower ceiling.
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors (-2), 1:00 pm ET
Team totals: Celtics 107, Raptors 109
Season Pace: Celtics 17th, Raptors 12th
Defensive Ranks: Celtics 4th, Raptors 2nd
Injury News: Kyle Lowry (ankle) is probable, Tremont Waters (knee) is out, and everything else is the same on the out guys (Gordon Hayward, Oshae Brissett, Patrick McCaw).
Season series: 3-1 Boston
Missing players in series: Norman Powell (2 missed games), Pascal Siakam (2), Marc Gasol (2), Marcus Smart (1)
*This one is tough to pick with some models having the Raptors favored with a 62% chance to win and others having the Celtics at 55% (538 has the Celtics as the favorite to win it all). The Celtics destroyed the Raptors in the seeding game, but besides that we haven’t really seen a full Raptors team against the Celtics since Oct. 25 when the Celtics won 112-106 in Boston.
*Kyle Lowry did hurt his ankle in Game 4 against the Nets, but it would appear he’s all good. He did not practice on Tuesday and he was listed as questionable for the game had it been played on Thursday. The Raptors did practice on Friday, but there was no media availability for them. We found out on Saturday that Lowry did practice on Saturday, and the Raptors tweeted a pic of Lowry on the practice court on Friday. He should be set for huge minutes.
*The Raptors allow the most right and left corner threes in the league, but that’s not really in the Boston game plan to this point. Jaylen Brown leads the Celtics in both left and right corner trey attempts, but he’s not in the top 25 per game in the league. Brown really ate against Al Horford in the last series, but now he’ll likely have to deal with more Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby. Coach Nick Nurse is likely going to try to take Tatum and Kemba away (more on that below), so Jaylen could be a big factor in this series.
*The Raptors get out and run as well as any team in the league at an NBA-best 24.2 possessions per game for a league-best 27.8 points per game in transition. The Celtics are one of the better transition defenses in the league at 17.7 points per game allowed, and they held the 76ers to just 8.0 points per game in transition. CleaningTheGlass.com has them as the top transition defense, as well. That does kind of hurt a guy like Norman Powell who really cleans up on getting out in transition, and Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are also in the top six for points per game in transition.
*Thanks to Kemba Walker, the Celtics are one of the best PNR teams in the NBA, ranking third in the league in PPP on the regular season. Against a bad opponent, the Raptors held the Nets to just 0.63 PPP in the first round, and they were the third-toughest PNR handler defense on points allowed at just 13.6 at a 10th-ranked 0.87 PPP. Kemba also has more matchup time on Fred VanVleet than any other player, and FVV held him in check at 21 points, three dimes and five turnovers on 8-of-25 from the field (five treys) with no free throws (98.4 partial possessions, so pretty close to a full game on matchup time). It’s a tough matchup for Kemba.
*Fred VanVleet had a lot of time being guarded by Kemba, and Kemba really shut him down at 5-of-24 from the field (two treys, three free throws) in 80.1 partial possessions for 15 points. Marcus Smart also really held him in check at 1-of-4 from the field in a small sample of 17.0 partial possessions. He gets a much tougher matchup here, and coach Brad Stevens is really going to know how to limit the easy FVV treys that most bubble teams have been allowing.
*The Raptors didn’t have Pascal Siakam for a couple matchups against Boston, so they put Kyle Lowry on Jayson Tatum for the majority of the matchup time. That’ll likely change for Tatum with a combination of Siakam and O.G. Anunoby on him for most of his time. As for Siakam, he saw Jaylen Brown more than any other Celtic this season. Tatum saw more PNR handler possessions in the postseason and he was still successful on those even after the 76ers adjusted their defense to try to stop him. Tatum’s two-point scoring is really going to be much tougher to come by, but he’s shown over a very decent sample he can be a lights-out shooter. Just because it’s a tough matchup, he can still get his.
*Daniel Theis is a plus roll man in the league, but the Raptors take away roll-man scoring better than any team in the league at a tiny 4.4 points per game (0.94 PPP also the best in the league). Theis should be looking at more minutes in this series with not as many post-up possessions from the Raptors compared to Joel Embiid in the first round. This is a bad series for Enes Kanter with the Raptors spreading the floor with Serge Ibaka and also using him in PNR, so we might see a little more Robert Williams. The Celtics’ starting lineup also got smashed on the glass against the 76ers at a playoff worst 41.8% rebounding percentage. It wasn’t a great rebounding lineup on the year at 48.9. The Celtics’ starting lineup also got smashed on the glass against the 76ers at a playoff worst 41.8% rebounding percentage (49.8% on season).
Matchup Helps: Daniel Theis (more playing time), Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown
Matchup Hurts: Kemba Walker
LA Clippers (-10.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 pm ET
Team totals: Clippers 124.5, Mavericks 114
Injury News: Patrick Beverley (calf) is questionable, Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable, Trey Burke (ankle) is questionable, Dorian Finney-Smith (left hip, right hip) is questionable, Tim Hardaway Jr. (neck) is questionable, and Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is out.
Injury bottom line: Luka should be a full go, DFS and Burke were already playing through their injuries and looked to be practicing, THJ’s injury is new, Pat-Bev is still unlikely.
Clippers Expected Starters: Landry Shamet, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Mavericks Expected Starters: Luka Doncic, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber
Clippers Rotation Notes: Clippers have been really fast off rebounds at 10.6 seconds per possession for fastest of the playoff teams (Mavs fourth at 10.8).
Mavericks Rotation Notes: Only six first-half minutes for Boban in Game 5, 20.8 minutes for Maxi Kleber in the first half (19.2 for DFS and Luka, 17.1 for Burke).
*We finally saw some trapping from the Clippers on Luka Doncic in Game 5, and it obviously worked. Doncic saw his touch time percentage per minute drop to 27.2% from 34.2% in the first four games of the series. Luka was at 0.71 drives per minute in Game 5, which is down from 0.87 in the first four games. Considering the plan worked so well, you’d assume there’s a lot more of it again today. If you’re looking for any info on Luka’s injury, coach Rick Carlisle makes it sound like he’s a full go. “The ankle’s doing well, all things considered,” Carlisle said. “I think the extra two or three days is a plus, certainly. In practice today (Saturday), he looked pretty good. Going into tomorrow, I don’t think he’s going to be limited.” If there is a lot of trapping, it might help Trey Burke and Seth Curry.
*Even with Paul George getting hotter, Kawhi Leonard still put up his best usage rate in this series at 33.3 in Game 5. He wasn’t exactly thriving against Maxi Kleber’s defense in the series, but the Mavs were forced to go away from that a bit with Kleber playing more five with more perimeter. DFS had most matchup time in Game 5, then Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Tim Hardaway Jr. In Game 4, it was actually MKG with the most matchup time on Kawhi, then DFS and Maxi third.
*Before Game 5, coach Doc Rivers said he wanted Paul George to shoot it 20 times, and he basically did with 18 FGA and seven FTA in just 25 minutes with the blowout. His 37.9 usage rate in Game 5 obliterated any of his previous games, including just a 21.2 usage rate in Games 2-4. George also said he wanted to get easier shots at the rim, and he did with four in Game 5 compared to just six combined in Games 1-4. He admitted he had some anxiety, depression and wasn’t locked in, so he might really start to get rolling.
Matchup Helps: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams, Boban Marjanovic (possible garbage time)
Matchup Hurts: Maxi Kleber
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz (-2.5), 8:30 pm ET
Team totals: Nuggets 108.3, Jazz 110.8
Injury News: Gary Harris (hip) is questionable
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Jazz Expected Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Malone said Saturday’s practice was the worst he’s seen in five years, Millsap squeezed out in second half at 5.6 minutes (Michael Porter Jr. 18.1), Jamal Murray and Joker played the full second half.
Jazz Rotation Notes: Seven-man rotation in the second half (Clarkson, Niang), Gobert played 23.9 second-half minutes, Mitchell at 21.5.
*The new Nuggets starting lineup is still getting smashed on defense at a 142.9 defensive rating for second worst of the 30 playoff lineups with 24-plus minutes (Pacers starters with Aaron Holiday). It’s worse than the old one and it’s also playing a little bit faster, so it’s setting up even better for the Jazz.
*Jamal Murray again continues to really be aggressive, getting 20 points off drives in Game 5 after 9.0 per game in the first four. After a bit of a dip, he’s seen his drives go up with eight in Game 3, 17 in Game 4, and 19 in Game 5 (17 in Game 2, 18 in Game 1). It’s been a really efficient way to score for the Nuggets at a 70.9 TS%, and making shots on one end will help their defense on the other. The Nuggets’ offense is shifting more to Murray initiating with Jokic spacing the floor. Jokic should still get his.
*Donovan Mitchell leads the playoffs in usage rate at 37.1 at an absurd 71.5 TS% for tops among everyone in the playoffs at 20 minutes per game and a 25-plus usage rate. As mentioned last time, he’s smashing on everyone the Nuggets are throwing at him (tweet here). Shot distribution wise, Mitchell is just getting huge volume at the rim at 30.0% of his shots (21.3% on season), and he’s making them at 72.7% (60.6% on the season). With bad defense, more pace and a game that should be close, this looks like a game you want to attack.
Matchup Helps: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Jamal Murray, Jerami Grant, Rudy Gobert
Matchup Hurts: Paul Millsap
