It’s another day with a Game 1 in the Eastern Conference and a Game 6 in the Western Conference. Unlike yesterday, all the game environments today should be attractive in competitive games, but of course we’ve seen some tight spreads go wild. Just like yesterday, I went a little more in depth for Game 1 as we try to get a better idea of what the series will look like.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-6), 6:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 109.3, Bucks 114.8
Pace Ranks: Heat 27th, Bucks 1st
Defense Ranks: Heat 12th, Bucks 1st
Season Series: Heat 2-1 (Bucks win came in August without Jimmy Butler)
Missing Players: Goran Dragic (1), Jimmy Butler (2), Tyler Herro (1) Donte DiVincenzo (1)
Injury News: Eric Bledsoe (hamstring) is questionable, Gabe Vincent (shoulder) questionable, and Chris Silva (pubic bone fracture) is out.
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Bucks expected starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
It looked like we had no injuries here, but Eric Bledsoe was a surprise addition to the injury report. He subbed out at 1:01 left in the fourth on Saturday with Brook Lopez, so you would assume it might be something minor. The Bucks don’t shed much light on injuries, so we don’t have much to go off here. If he does miss, it’ll be Donte DiVincenzo and George Hill benefiting. Jimmy Butler was playing through a soft-tissue shoulder issue, but the time off helped him in a big way. After the win against the Pacers, he could barely lift his arm and talked about it after the game. After he was done with interviews following Monday’s game, he talked about his injury “(Now) I’ve got to put my fucking mask on with one arm,” he said. Coach Erik Spoelstra said he was healthy, said Butler has played through worse injuries, and even compared Butler’s healing to Wolverine. Butler himself said “I’m good to go” and it’s no longer an issue. He’s set for a big role (more below).
Bucks rotation notes: The biggest Bucks question comes down to the team trimming their rotation to a more conventional playoff rotation. However, coach Mike Budenholzer suggested that’s not happening. Back on Wednesday, Bud pointed out he likes how his closing lineup “is in a good place physically, emotionally, all those things,” he said going deeper helps his team play fast, and play harder on defense (whole quote here, if interested). That suggests that the key guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo may not get to 35 minutes right off the bat (topped out at 34 in Magic series). Expect similar rotations to the Magic series without the garbage time.
Heat rotation notes: Coach Erik Spoelstra loves to play the matchup, so let’s get into what he might be thinking. My first thought was it makes a lot of sense to go with more Kelly Olynyk for size and KO’s shooting (mentioned on the pod he might even start). Although, after some comments from the team and reading from the beats, Jae Crowder should be in the first unit, and he’ll probably be guarding Brook Lopez because Bam is too important to be spaced out on Brook Lopez. That could mean more post-up chances for Brook, but the Heat would be OK with that rather than give more possessions to a highly-efficient Giannis. Besides Olynyk off the bench and certainly Andre Iguodala. Tyler Herro was so good in the first round that you’d think he would have to be in the mix again, but don’t be surprised if he’s dialed back now that Kendrick Nunn looks to have his conditioning back up. Spo’s go-to closing lineup was Dragic, Herro, Jimmy, Iggy and Bam for 27 minutes in the Pacers series, and 27 of those minutes came in the fourth. That lineup seems really small against the Bucks, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Olynyk take Herro’s spot.
Overall Defensive Notes
*The Heat are excellent at taking away transition points, allowing the second-fewest possessions in the league this season (Magic). The Magic kept the Bucks really in check in the first round at just 17.0 points in transition points per game, down from their 25.4 on the season. The Heat are also the best non-Bucks team at limiting shots at the rim at 25.6 per game (Bucks first at 24.2).
*The Bucks do not defend the 3-point line very well, allowing the most wide-open trey attempts in the league. The Bucks do a ton of drives, but they’re exception at limiting output as the NBA’s best team in points allowed per drive and they’re even third in points off drives per game despite giving up the most drives per game (stats are pre-bubble). Duncan Robinson should have some added value here.
Heat Player Notes
*Bam Adebayo did about as well as just about anyone on Giannis this year with Giannis at 12-of-28 from the field and five FTA over 52 partial possessions. That’s extremely high usage in that time and Bam also kept him to four assists and three turnovers. Part of Giannis’ stats are a bit misleading because he went 0-of-13 from deep in the season series, and overall his shot distribution was fairly similar to his season output. Butler said “over and over again, Bam is the heart and soul” of the Heat. On offense, Bam should operate in the high post and elbow a la Nikola Jokic to set up the Heat offense, so he’s a dark horse for a triple-double in the series.
*Miami was the best offensive team on handoffs by a wide margin at 10.2 per game, and they were right on par in the playoffs at 10.5 (first in PPP on the season and on possessions, too). The Bucks are kind of in the middle of the road on defending that play, and of course they’re a subpar 3-point defense. The Magic aren’t a great team from three and they’re still at 20.3 wide-open attempts from deep per game in the first four games (15.3 on season), and the Heat weren’t getting great looks vs. the Pacers at 11.5 wide-open looks per game. The Bucks also allowed an NBA-high 20.9 wide-open 3-point attempts per game on the season at a below average 37.5% (38.4% is average for NBA players on wide-open treys). It should be bombs away for their shooters.
*It’s a bit of a tougher matchup for Jimmy Butler. He probably won’t see too much Giannis with a lot of Middleton instead, but the Bucks don’t foul too much at third-lowest fouls per minute in the regular season and fifth-lowest free throws allowed. Butler had an insanely-high 44.3% of his points in the Pacers series come at the line for highest among players with 15-plus minutes per game in the postseason. Butler also led the NBA in that category at 37.9% of his points at the line during the season. Plus, Butler has a big-man like 45.5% of his points coming in the paint, which is also another area the Bucks take away. If his fluky 57.1 3P% from the first round goes away (it should), the matchup for Mr. Buckets doesn’t really get any tougher here.
*Dragic has been exceptional in the paint and in bubble, making 35-of-48 (72.9%) in the paint for 35.3% of his shot total. The efficiency is way up from before the bubble at 52.3%, but the volume is a tick down from 39.5%. The Bucks will likely let Dragic get downhill a bit, but it’ll really come down to him finishing. It’s not going to be easy, but the chance is there.
Bucks Player Notes
As mentioned above, Bam has really done well on Giannis. The Magic did a decent job on Giannis, but he just killed them on 0-1 dribble shots with a 72.1 eFG% on those 54 shots (55.2 eFG% on other 48). The Heat should do a much better job of taking that away, but still, it’s Giannis. He’s by far the best player per minute in the playoffs at 1.85 FD per minute (AD 1.69), he’s still way ahead in rebounding percentage at 23.1 (Jarrett Allen 20.4), he’s first in pace among players with multiple starts in the playoffs, and has a 34.4 usage rate. He’s probably looking at 34 minutes off the bat, so even a hit in the offensive efficiency department won’t matter too much.
*Khris Middleton has really struggled in the bubble, and it doesn’t help that he didn’t have a single paint point in the first four games of the series (four in Game 5). He had just 5.6% of his shots come at the rim, so he’s really relying on jumpers or contested shots so far in the playoffs. In three games against Jae Crowder, Crowder did an excellent job of limiting Middleton’s usage at just 5-of-8 from the field in 39.8 partial possessions.
*Eric Bledsoe was really bad on offense in the first round, except when he got switched to bigs. Against Orlando PGs and Evan Fournier, he shot just 8-of-21 from the field (two treys, six free throws). Kendrick Nunn shut him down in the regular season, but of course there won’t be much of that with Dragic starting. For what it’s worth and if you’re into small samples, Bledsoe was pretty bad in the 27 minutes of time he’s been on the court with Dragic (wasn’t great in 25 minutes in 2018-19). If he struggles again, he might be on a short leash to open up time for George Hill.
*As mentioned above, Brook might be in a sneaky good spot here with likely more Jae Crowder on him.
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Andre Iguodala, Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Matchup Hurts: Khris Middleton, Derrick Jones Jr., Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler‘s scoring (can still rack up other stats)
Houston Rockets (-5) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Rockets 115.8, Thunder 110.8
Injury News: Luc Mbah a Moute is out
Rockets Expected LIneups: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Expected Lineups: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams (note: Wouldn’t be shocked to see Dennis Schroder start for Gallo)
Rockets Rotation Notes: P.J. Tucker ejected to up minutes all around, Westbrook had a 28-minute cap but broadcast reported he could’ve hit 30 if needed.
Thunder Rotation Notes: Dennis Schroder ejected to up frontcourt minutes in bigger lineups.
*It might be rotation change time for Billy Donovan. His starters have a horrendous -44.2 net rating in 50 minutes in this series, including a -79.2 in 11 minutes on Saturday with most of it against Russell Westbrook. Big yikes. If you saw Game 5, you saw a Rockets defense that was clearly funneling attempts to Lugeuntz Dort. Donovan was using Dort as a screener more to mix up the coverages from the Rockets, and Donovan talked about how Dort is getting more shots than SGA and Danilo Gallinari. “We don’t control that. Houston controls that,” Donovan said of the light shots for SGA and Gallo. “It’s how they’re guarding. It’s who they elect to come off of and who they elect not to come off of.” Donovan’s hand is almost forced to start the same guys, but he should find a way to get Dennis Schroder out there more often while Gallo and Steven Adams could be dicey options. Adams played well in Game 5, so I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Gallo is pulled from the first unit.
*As mentioned in the last edition, the Rockets are giving Harden more screens, and Robert Covington touched on that aspect affecting Dort after Game 5. “[Dort’s] aggression sometimes gets the best of him, so we kinda exploited it a little bit,” RoCo said. As expected, Harden’s usage rate didn’t tumble too much at 30.0 even with Russ in the mix, and he actually had a higher usage rate with Westbrook (34.5 in 11 minutes) than he did without him (26.2 in 17.4). He’s still in a big spot here. Covington finally looks like he’s ready, and Westbrook playing really helps him.
*Oh, SGA. He was still aggressive when he had touches at 14 drives, but he just wasn’t shooting off those in Game 5 with just four points. He was trending up heading into Game 5, but the Rockets really exploited him on the defensive end. It all really comes down to OKC adjusting to Houston’s defense and Donovan is smart enough to do that, so SGA, CP3 and Schroder should be locked in for huge roles in this do-or-die game.
Matchup Helps: James Harden, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington
Matchup Hurts: Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
