It’s certainly a players’ league, but one thing that really has stood out has been the coaching advantages. Coach Erik Spoelstra is coaching circles around coach Mike Budenholzer, and coach Mike D’Antoni continues to influence opponents to take the shots that the Rockets want them to. Lots of adjustments need to be made by coach Frank Vogel and Bud today. Also, it’s interesting that the odds on the first game had opened at Bucks -1.5, and now they’re Heat -1.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat (-1), 3:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Bucks 109.5, Heat 110.5
Injury News: Kelly Olynyk (knee) is questionable, Tyler Herro (hip) is probable, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Bucks Rotation Notes: Bucks starters have played just two minutes together in the fourth quarter, Bud didn’t up his key guys’ minutes (more below), 12.1 minutes of Bledsoe with George Hill in Game 3 (6.5 in fourth).
Heat Rotation Notes: A few minutes of Derrick Jones Jr. and Andre Iguodala as a PF/C frontcourt, Bam played final 15 minutes, Herro almost played the final 17 minutes, Crowder and Herro leading 4Q minutes in this series at 33 each (Bam 32)
*Just quickly on Giannis’ ankle. He had a noticeable limp leaving the arena on Friday, and he was grimacing throughout the game after his ankle turn earlier in the game. It was clearly affecting him, so hopefully the time off can get him right. We kind of have to assume him in here, but if he somehow isn’t out there, I covered it in the Injuries to Watch section.
*Usually, when the pitchforks come out on Twitter, it’s an overreaction. However, coach Mike Budenholzer said that 35-36 minutes on Middleton and Giannis is “pushing the ceiling” deserves some criticism. This comes one day after coach Nick Nurse played three guys the full 24 in the second half on Thursday. You hate to see it. You’d think, now down 0-3, he’d go through the ceiling there. Regardless of how bad these matchups are for the Bucks, the volume is so attractive in a do-or-die situation.
*All series long, we’ve talked about how the Heat have the personnel and strategy to take away Giannis’ strengths. Giannis has been brutal away from the basket, making just 5-of-27 on shots beyond three feet, and his shots within three feet account for 47.1% of his shots, down from 52.6% on the season. Again, the Heat kept Giannis’ pace down at 100.4 in Game 3, and all three games in this series are his lowest three among games since March. Giannis also only has made 15-of-34 shots (44.1 eFG%) with under 18 seconds on the shot clock (57.5 eFG% on the season). Plus, Giannis had 72.2% of his shots come from 0-18 seconds left in the shot clock on the season, and that’s dropped to 66.7% in this series. The Heat were also very OK leaving GA open in Game 3, making 4-of-15 uncontested shots in Game 3 after going 8-of-16 combined in Game 2. The Bucks are playing on Coach Spo’s terms, and for the fourth time it’s clear they are OK giving up shots to Brook Lopez.
*Again. Goran Dragic had 12-of-15 shots uncontested in Game 3, and again he burned them at 8-of-12. He had 78.8% of his shots come uncontested in the first two games and it was up to 80% in Game 3. As easy as it is to blame this on the Bucks, Dragic has just been lights out on a shot selection standpoint both on and off the ball.
*Bam’s screens for others to set them up for points finally went the other way around with his teammates setting him up for really easy looks all night. He had four dunks (one off an O board) and he made all seven shots in the paint. It was his second lowest usage rate game since February, but part of that is because so many of the other Heat players are getting such high-quality looks.
*Herro Ball ftw. While Bud can’t figure anything out, coach Erik Spoelstra knows where he’s going late in games, and that’s with a four-man group of Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, and with the fifth being either Jae Crowder or Andre Iguodala. That four-man combo has been used for an NBA-high 41 minutes in the fourth quarter, and impressively it’s only been used for two total minutes in the first three quarters. It’s also the best four-man lineup in the playoffs at a +41.6 net rating (min 40 minutes, 128 qualifiers). Herro is locked in on his role and he hasn’t truly busted out in this series (still very good in the last two)
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Khris Middleton, George Hill, Brook Lopez
Matchup Hurts: Giannis Antetokounmpo (possible big volume, though)
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5.5), 8:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Rockets 109.8, Lakers 115.3
Injury News: LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo are probable as usual.
Rockets Expected Starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Eric Gordon, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee (note: Lakers could go smaller, but this lineup didn’t fail them)
Rockets Rotation Notes: Tucker and Westbrook had similar sub patterns, Harden similar to RoCo, D’Antoni’s talk of expanding rotation was basically just a bunch of BS besides some spot minutes for Ben McLemore.
Lakers Rotation Notes: Lakers starters were still +23.5 net rating in 13 minutes in Game 1, Rajon Rondo and Kyle Kuzma were first players off the bench, Alex Caruso had some foul trouble, Anthony Davis said to Yahoo he is willing to slide over to center despite how he’s not fond of it.
*So much for the Rockets not getting good looks. They were still able to get 23 wide-open attempts from deep in Game 1 (made eight), which is right on par for how they performed in the OKC series (24 per game, with one OT frame). The Blazers only had 11.1 per game in the first round, which really shows just how great of an offensive system the Rockets have.
*The Rockets somehow only had two dimes off their 63 drives.
*The Lakers only had five points off screen assists all game, and this comes after the Thunder were the low team at 9.9 per game in the first round (season low was 13.2 from Houston because of Harden isolations). I know, I know, screen assists stats are wack, but you have to give Houston credit for minimizing how teams use screeners to create points.
*The Rockets really kept LeBron from scoring downhill, keeping him at 3.4 TSA (true shooting attempts, keep your shoes on) off drives in Game 1 after his 7.4 in the Blazers series. When the Rockets had their defense set, it led to some very un-LeBron like shots. Just hand tracking here on when the D was set, LeBron had two postups, two drives, four pullup treys, a three off a screen, and a catch-and-shoot trey (here’s a tweet with more detail). That’s not going to cut it. Maybe it was because he was playing from behind, but this is exactly what the Rockets would’ve wanted. He has to be better and he knows it. He’s too good to settle for these shots. Also, Twitter was quick to go nuts over Eric Gordon guarding LeBron, but he only had two FGA against Gordon in 21.5 partial possessions. That’s bad for LeBron.
*Anthony Davis is one of the greatest offensive players in the league, but he typically doesn’t do a lot of scoring without help. The Rockets held him to just 30% of his makes coming off an assist. That’s insanely low for him. In fact, of the 241 previous games, AD had just three games with a lower percentage than 30. P.J. Tucker did an outstanding job, but again this all just comes back to the Lakers not having any creativity in their offense and getting painted into a corner by the Rockets. Like LeBron, it’s on AD and the coaching staff to put him in a better spot. He had just two points on Tucker in 18.7 partial possessions (graphics stud Kirk Goldsberry had it at two points on 26 times defended).
*Rajon Rondo somehow saw 25 minutes, and he wasn’t too far off LeBron and AD in usage rate at 22.8 (LeBron 24.4, AD 23.5). Just wasteful offense on two historically efficient players out there. Sadly for the Lakers, it sounds like they want to play him again, per Frank Vogel. “It is a challenge working in a new player into the rotation at this stage in the playoffs, but Rajon is one of the smartest players in the league,” Vogel said. “He’s definitely going to help us this series.” Don’t do it. Meanwhile, Alex Caruso made a positive impact on the game, and he should see his playing time solidified in this series. Vogel said that part of the reason Rondo got up there in minutes was because of Caruso’s foul trouble.
*The Lakers didn’t do a great job on James Harden, getting 14 shots in the paint, six above-the-break treys, and zero mid range shots. Basically, he got just what he wanted and got to the line 12 times, too. Not good. He was 4-of-7 on uncontested shots and 8-of-13 on contested shots, so that’s not great either. The Lakers didn’t really look to trap him much, and that should change in Game 2. Still, it’s a pretty good sign that he got exactly what he wanted.
*The Lakers didn’t do a great job of keeping Westbrook in check either, getting 54.2% of his shots in the paint and 25.0% in the mid range. Of his six mid-range shots, three of them were pretty good looks, one was bad and two weren’t great. His shot selection has been trending up over his four games. Westbrook was right in the middle of his 30-34 minute cap for Game 1, and projects as someone looking at 32-36 for Game 2. Westbrook did get his fourth-quarter rest like normal and subbed out at 1:13 left, so he would’ve been a shade under 33.5 minutes in Game 1.
Matchup Helps: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, P.J. Tucker, Alex Caruso
Matchup Hurts: Eric Gordon (foul trouble concern), Rajon Rondo
