The most predicted outcome has occurred: Davante Adams will team up with old pal Aaron Rodgers in New York. Adams last played alongside Rodgers in 2021, when he caught 123 balls for 1,553 yards and 11 scores. Both players are in different stages of their respective careers now, and Garrett Wilson is superior target competition to anything Adams was dealing with once he became the WR1 in Green Bay, but there’s no indication as of now that Adams has lost a step in his age-31 season. Let’s dig into how this affects key fantasy assets on both the Jets and the Raiders.
DAVANTE ADAMS
- We were regularly projecting Adams for a 30% or better target share with the Raiders. He’s unlikely to get that with the Jets (though it’s not completely impossible), and NYJ is so slow-paced that Adams in 2023 with LV is likely a better setup than he’ll have with the Jets. However, with how disgruntled Adams clearly was this year and the increased target competition (Brock Bowers) in Vegas, plus Rodgers’ tendency to exclusively target WRs he likes, this is a good outcome for the star WR.
- As mentioned, we were usually projecting Adams around a ~30% target share with the Raiders. We’ll see how the target distribution shakes out, but we expect that number to fall into the mid-20s with the Jets. He should be more efficient than he was with the Raiders, both on a per-target basis and in terms of TD scoring, but volume is still king in fantasy football. That decreased target share makes him roughly a Round 3 pick in fantasy football if we were drafting today.
GARRETT WILSON
- Similar to Adams, we’ve been projecting Wilson with a near-30% target share on a weekly basis (around 28-29%), and now we have him dead even with Adams to start. We’ll see how this target distribution evolves — I won’t be surprised either way regardless of who ends up with more targets rest-of-season — but this is a downgrade for Wilson despite the uptick in expected efficiency. Wilson’s 67 targets are nine clear of the next-closest player (Wan’Dale Robinson, 58), and it’s not like Wilson has been a mega-smash in fantasy so far even with that volume. Adams will take coverage away from Wilson and help move the chains/set up more TD opportunities, but a ~16% drop in projected volume outweighs that. We have Wilson ranked right next to Adams in our rest-of-season rankings at the moment.
OTHER JETS PLAYERS
- Allen Lazard has an 18.2% target share so far. That number likely plummets with Adams in town, as Lazard will no longer play in 2-WR sets and be far less efficient from a TPRR perspective. Lazard is likely still worth rostering in most leagues but no longer even close to startable.
- Mike Williams was being evaluated for a head injury after last night’s game and allegedly ran the wrong route on the game-losing interception. He now looks like the WR4 and could be set to miss time on top of that. There is no point in rostering him right now.
- Tyler Conklin also sees a dip in target share. He wasn’t a weekly TE1 before this trade and falls even further in the ranks after it.
- Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will also see dips in target share — which is most pertinent to Hall considering his 15.1% target share is massive for an RB — but they most directly benefit from the improved offensive environment since goal-line opportunities will be more plentiful now. There’s a pretty strong argument this is a positive for them despite a slight dock in pass-game role.
JAKOBI MEYERS
- Meyers missed Week 6 with an ankle injury and it’s unclear when he’ll be back, but he had 19 targets (42% and 24% target shares) in two games without Adams this year and, given the lack of target competition besides Brock Bowers, he’s a legit fantasy starter the rest of the way once he’s healthy. The offense as a whole is unlikely to generate many scoring opportunities and Meyers may struggle efficiency-wise (he’s only at 7.6 YPT this year), but he’s in line for 8+ targets per game. The weekly fantasy ceiling isn’t all the way there without big TD games, but he’s a solid WR3/flex on volume alone.
BROCK BOWERS
- Bowers has games of 13%, 32%, and 24% (no Meyers) target shares since Adams hurt his hamstring (supposedly). There are so few TEs with a weekly 30% target share ceiling, and Bowers has somehow managed to average 8.3 yards per target despite awful QB play and still getting acclimated to the NFL. Rashee Rice‘s injury likely vaults Travis Kelce back to the overall TE1 in fantasy leagues, but Bowers is right there behind him. He’s already one of the best real-life TEs in the league and now has a clear runway to an enormous target share.
OTHER RAIDERS PLAYERS
- Tre Tucker somehow earned only one target as the WR1 sans Meyers last week. He’s fine to hold in deep leagues, but his target shares will be volatile and the ceiling games aren’t even that desirable given the QB situation/offense.
