Dynasty Outlook
March 19
Adonai Mitchell is our WR8 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR39 in our overall dynasty ranks. While the statistical comps are not particularly encouraging, the height/weight/speed is tantalizing, and provides for a high ceiling. Mitchell is also slated to go in a portion of the draft where he could find a true home-run landing spot like Buffalo or Kansas City. There is tremendous bust potential here, but the upside is probably going to push Mitchell up our ranks in future updates. The wide variance in outcomes will be worth a late first in rookie drafts, but if he manages to land in an offense that pushes him into the mid-first round, fantasy owners are better off passing.
Profile Summary
Mitchell is a physical specimen capable of making both long plays and touchdowns in a larger frame. There is still some room to go in his development, and how he decides to dedicate to his craft may be the determining factor in what he becomes at the next level. Mitchell spent his entire college career on a competitive depth chart and still found a way to produce.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.2
Experience — 3 years
Height — 74.25 inches
Weight — 205 pounds
Hand — 9.0 inches
Arm — 32.38 inches
Forty — 4.34 seconds
Vert — 39.5 inches
Broad — 136 inches
By the Numbers
Mitchell joined a loaded receiving group at Georgia in his true freshman season. The team had George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, Darnell Washington, and Jermaine Burton. A 12% dominator rating is actually pretty decent in that context, especially when considering that Georgia does not typically do well with WR production. A high-ankle sprain ruined his sophomore season.
After transferring to Texas, Mitchell managed to break out while playing with a bunch of other 2024 draftees: Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders,and Jordan Whittington. Here were their respective performances (all four players played every game):
Worthy: 75 receptions, 1,014 yards, 5 TDs
Mitchell: 55 receptions, 845 yards, 11 TDs
Sanders: 45 receptions, 682 yards, 2 TDs
Whittington: 42 receptions, 505 yards, 1 TD
Mitchell was essentially the 1B in this passing attack, and he was the dominant leader in scoring.
What makes Mitchell particularly intriguing is his athletic profile. He ran a 4.35 or faster at 200+ pounds. Here are all the WRs to accomplish this and be selected in the first two rounds:
Ja’Marr Chase
Parris Campbell
DK Metcalf
Julio Jones
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Chad Jackson
Troy Williamson
There is a pretty massive disparity between the top and bottom end of this spectrum. Three absolute studs and four complete busts. It is worth noting that both Campbell and Heyward-Bey were not three-year prospects like Mitchell was. Perhaps that tilts the scales a bit in his favor.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Mitchell to George Pickens:
Ascending prospect with size, speed, and ball skills to become a very good NFL receiver, but he’s still in the process of bridging those traits. Mitchell can beat press and has the speed to take the battle to the third level, but he’s still learning the art of bullying the catch space in tight quarters and jump-ball battles. He’s not always a natural hands-catcher, but his ability to snare balls outside his frame is top-notch. His route running currently lacks focus and consistency, but agility and burst out of breaks will not be an issue. Mitchell is rugged after the catch and has the ability to become a winner on all three levels. The difference between becoming a WR2 or WR1 could rest on his urgency and willingness to go to work on the unpolished areas of his craft.
Daniel Jeremiah believes Mitchell is an ideal X receiver:
Mitchell has outstanding size, toughness, and polish for the position. He is fast and has a long stride. He has surprisingly good route polish for a bigger receiver. He understands how to change tempo, and he’s clean getting in and out of breaks. He gave Kool-Aid McKinstry a lot of trouble in the Alabama game last September, finishing with three catches for 78 yards and two TDs. He has some wow catches on fades and 50/50 balls. He can climb the ladder, hang, and finish (SEE: his TD grab against Washington in the College Football Playoff). It looks like he gets a little lazy at times on the back side of routes, assuming the ball is going elsewhere. He doesn’t have a ton of production after the catch. Overall, though, Mitchell is an ideal X receiver. He can make plays when covered, and he’s a real weapon in the red zone.
Dane Brugler notes Mitchell’s insane first-down/touchdown rate:
Despite some wasted movements in his routes that need tightening up, Mitchell cleanly accelerates/decelerates at will and has the fluid movement skills to create separation out of his breaks (81.8% first-down/touchdown rate in 2023, best among the receivers in this class).
Mitchell is not the strongest player through contact, but he has the hand-eye coordination and pliable frame to adjust, high-point, and reach throws most receivers cannot.
Draft Projection
Mitchell has an expected draft position of 29.6 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Mitchell 29th overall. Jeremiah has Mitchell going 32nd in his most recent mock, while Brugler’s has him going 24th. Mitchell is likely a late first or early second-round draft pick.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Ironically, Mitchell’s most comparable player — which is not shown above — is Keon Coleman, his rookie classmate. Tee Higgins also just missed this list — one of Coleman’s top comps. But similar to Coleman, this list does not inspire much. Nico Collins broke out in a major way this past NFL season, and while Alec Pierce and Josh Palmer have so far been nice complementary pieces, the rest of this list has done relatively nothing in the NFL.
Mitchell had to deal with a lot more adversity in terms of both competition and injury than Coleman did, so it is worth considering if comps are the best way to evaluate his profile. Georgia receivers in general have not produced well under Kirby Smart.
