Week 10 Recap

Week 10 was another high hit rate week for the model. It not only identified the No. 1 scoring wide receiver on the week — Christian Kirk — it also pegged Mark Andrews who ended up the week’s highest scoring TE. Overall 8-of-11 players on the list who played in games exceeded their projections.

One downside in Week 10 was that the top performers tended to have high ownership. This was especially true of Christian Kirk. While he still ended up being good chalk, the type of analysis the model uses appears to be taking root across the industry. That should probably be factored into your analysis moving forward regarding ownership. Since this article is published on Tuesdays — in advance of ownership projections — unfortunately I’m not able to offer guidance on how the market will view buy low receivers in situations that align with public narratives.

It was not all bad news on the ownership front however. In the top-six GPPs on DraftKings Mark Andrews was owned in under 5% of contests, on average. Demaryius Thomas had virtually zero ownership in any tournament, and put up solid numbers at just $3500. There’s still an edge to be had, but you’ll have to be comfortable using the model as your main decider rather than relying on narrative factors to drive your choices.

 

Here are the full results for Week 10:

 

Player Team Projection Week 10
D.J. Moore CAR 13.6 21
Tyler Boyd CIN 13 12.2
Curtis Samuel CAR 12.8 13.5
Davante Adams GB 12.6 18.8
Chris Conley JAC 12.5
D.J. Chark JAC 12.1
Keenan Allen LAC 11.7 16.6
Auden Tate CIN 11.6 6.6 (wrong Tate)
Chris Godwin TB 11.2 13.4
Christian Kirk ARI 11.1 37.8
Noah Fant DEN 10.1
Calvin Ridley ATL 9.3 7.7
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.2
Mark Andrews BAL 8.4 23.3
Demaryius Thomas NYJ 8.2 14.4

 

 

Week 11

The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.

The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.56 (up 1 point from 0.55 in Week 10).

Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.

In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.

 

KEY

* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.

* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.

* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.

 

Teams on BYE this Week are: the Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, and the Tennessee Titans.

 

Player Team Projection Actual Difference Main slate DK salary
Odell Beckham CLE 12.3 11.5 -0.7 NA
Keenan Allen LAC 12.1 11.4 -0.7 NA
Sammy Watkins KC 10.8 10.6 -0.2 NA
Auden Tate CIN 10.8 9.1 -1.8 4200
Allen Robinson CHI 10.1 9.1 -1 NA
Alshon Jeffery PHI 9.4 9 -0.4 4800
Devin Singletary BUF 9.2 8.1 -1.1 6000
Terry McLaurin WAS 9.2 7.9 -1.3 5600
T.Y. Hilton IND 9 7.4 -1.6 6600
A.J. Brown TEN 9 8 -1 BYE
Calvin Ridley ATL 8.6 8.4 -0.2 5500

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The list is short this week, but don’t forget to consider players from last week who were on a bye. Those players lose a week of data in the model without actually having played a game, so they are still solid plays. Names from last week include D.J. Chark, Chris Conley, and Noah Fant
  • Alshon Jeffery at $4800 appears to be a very solid buy low heading into Week 11. He leads Eagles wide receivers with 29 percent of the team’s air yards and a 24 percent target share over the past four weeks. There’s a narrative out there that he’s in decline and washed. While it doesn’t always work out, these are the perfect spots to fade the external nonsense and shoot your shot. Ownership will be low and if the model is right you’ll be in a good spot to cash your in tournaments.
  • Calvin Ridley is on the list for a second straight week. He’s still probably too expensive at $5500, but some folks were likely burned by him last week and won’t want to run it back, keeping ownership low. Playing him again is good process if you have the extra cash in your lineup build.
  • Keenan Allen remains on the list because he, along with the rest of the Chargers, can’t seem to find the end zone. He’s a great player, and tied for the league lead in toe-tap catches on the sideline (4), which is pretty solid evidence that he hasn’t lost the skills that make him special. You should start him with confidence in all your leagues.